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New analysis of local price and income “Diamond-o-grams”

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Presentation on theme: "New analysis of local price and income “Diamond-o-grams”"— Presentation transcript:

1 New analysis of local price and income “Diamond-o-grams”
Created by Stephen Hills, SCDC with support from Sue Beecroft

2 A new approach

3 What does a diamond-o-gram do?
Pictures the incomes of residents in an area (district) in a diamond shape Highlights the % of residents on incomes of “more than” or “less than” £xxx Shows the annual cost of different size and tenure housing in the same area Help us relate the housing costs to local incomes

4 Step 1. Get CACI income data
CACI via Hometrack gives us the number of households in each income band, from £0-£5,000 to Over £100,000 We use this to show the number of households, and the % of that district’s households in each band. About CACI CACI PayCheck is an estimate of household income at postcode level. It is based upon government data sources together with income data for millions of UK homes collected from lifestyle surveys and guarantee card returns. It models gross income before tax and covers income from every source, including investments, income support and welfare.

5 Just to give the idea…

6 Step 2. Make a ‘blank’ diamond
200 boxes in a diamond shape Each box represents 0.5%, and adds up to 100%. 0.5

7 Step 3. Shade each square according to % households in each income band

8 Step 4. Add income band labels

9 Step 5. Add notes on income groups

10 Step 6. Add housing costs

11 Step 6b. Hold on a moment, how did you do that income step?

12 Step 7. Compare incomes to costs

13 Step 8. Repeat for 7 more districts
…open the desktop version in excel now… Step 8. Compare diamonds

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22 Thoughts and ideas Welcome your thoughts…
What improvements could we make? Is it too complex? Would you use it? What about the “size” of each market? Number of new social and affordable rent Private lets per month / year Amount of homebuy Number of sales (second hand and new build)

23 Notes on data Income: CACI 2015-16
House price: Hometrack’s weekly housing cost comparison, from housing market bulletin edition 33, based on March 2017 data for 1, 2 and 3 beds. Mathematics for affordability: weekly housing cost x 53 = annual housing cost; times 3 gives income needed to afford. Some of the weekly costs exclude things like service charges, deposits and insurances so “real life” costs may be significantly higher.

24 Notes on housing cost data
Local Authority ave rent. May include some sheltered. Excludes ground rent and service charges. Average HA rent reported via HCA SDR, March We use local rent figures from SDR for ‘low cost’ and ‘affordable’ rent. General needs housing only, no service charges included. Median intermediate and private rents. Median rent for advertised properties in local area, and 80% of that cost = intermediate. Buying a lower quartile new build or resale. The cost of buying with a mortgage based on the capital and interest cost of servicing a mortgage for 85% of the median value of a property with 25 year mortgage term and the ave prevailing mortgage rate. Value based on Hometrack lower quartile value.

25 Notes on housing cost data
Median cost of buying a 40% new build HomeBuy. Weekly cost derived from Hometrack’s median price data. The cost excludes ground rent and service charges. Rent element is assumed at 2.75% and mortgage payments derived from average building society rates. Loan-to-value assumed at 85% i.e. it is assumed that the buyer has made a 15% deposit on the portion of the property they have bought. Median cost of buying a new build or resale. "New build" sales are counted when a property was sold in the same year it was built. Values are based on Hometrack data – but only where the surveyor provides “year built” date to Land Registry. This may not always happen, and there are sometimes delays so new build values may be reported late.

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