1. The Future of ISIS: The Beginning of the End or the End of the Beginning?
Dr. W. Rory Dickson

2. ISIS in 2017 I. Late Summer 2014: Peak Momentum
II – 2017: Rapid economic, territorial, military decline in Iraq (60%) and Syria (30%)
III. Shared Russian and American priority to defeat ISIS
IV – 2018: Imminent loss of Mosul, predicted fall of Raqqa
V. Inhiyaz: retreat to the desert, mobilize affiliates, encourage attacks abroad

3. The Dream of the Islamic State
Concept emerges in early 20th Century with dissolution of Ottoman Caliphate
90% of Muslim societies under European control: What went wrong?
Islamist Movement: make societies Islamic again and the wrongs will be made right - “Islam is the Solution”
Abul Ala Maududi (d. 1979) and Sayyid Qutb (d. 1966): conceptualize Islamic State, revolutionary opposite of all existing societies (all existing in a state of ignorance or jahiliyyah)
All states not fully implementing God’s law (shari‘ah) represent an idolatrous elevation of humans to level of Legislator, inevitably leading to darkness and oppression. Suggest slamic State is only option for true justice, balance, and religion in the world

4. Salafi-Jihadism: The Militant Quest for Utopia
Sectarian Theology
i. Wala’ wa’l bara’: love and loyalty to Islamic state and its adherents, hatred and opposition to all non-Islamic states and their members (seen as requirement of
true monotheism, obeying human legislation is idolatry)
ii. Takfir: all Muslims not sharing exact theology and social vision declared apostates
b) Puritan Social Vision
i. Jihad: romantic glorification of fighting, seen as ‘sixth pillar’ of Islamic faith, rejection of traditional Islamic legal restrictions on violence
ii. Hisba: most conservative social vision among Muslims, strict gender segregation, unprecedented execution of hudud punishments, total rejection of “un-Islamic” cultural objects and religious practices
c) Individual and Social Appeal
i. Claim to represent saved sect, offer strong identity and sense of mission

5. Excerpts from al-Qa’ida’s Creed:
5. We believe that all rule and legislation belong to God alone, and that His rule constitutes absolute justice and all that opposes it constitutes oppression that must be rejected. We assert that the conditions for faith’s validity is to refer matters to God’s rule and legislation, and that all who refer matters to other than God’s rule and legislation, and who do not rule on the basis of God’s revelation, have directly disobeyed God. Because of this, such a person is an infidel (kafir) who has abandoned Islam and followed jahiliyyah.
19. We believe that the ruler who rules according to other than the shari‘a is an apostate. Armed and violent rebellion against them is an individual duty on every Muslim.
20. We believe that secularism, in all its forms constitutes flagrant unbelief taking one outside of Islam. He who believes in it, calls to it, or rules by it, is clearly an infidel, regardless of any false claims to be a Muslim.
21. We believe that democracy is the tribulation of this age. It divinizes man and his sovereignty, conferring on him the quality of ruler and legislator, which belongs to God. Democracy is unbelief, which constitutes the gravest way of falling from the Muslim community. He who believes in the concept of democracy, or who calls to it, or supports it, is an apostate regardless of his claim to be a Muslim.
- William Jones (d. 1794): “The Sixth Discourse: On the Persians” (1789)

6. Conclusions
The imminent defeat of the Islamic State is significant, and its losses already causing some to lose faith in the veracity and divine support of its caliphate. The movement itself may disintegrate
However leadership is already preparing followers for a retreat and continued, decentralized fight, as part of the perpetual mission to fight idolatrous societies and to establish a pure Islamic one
Salafi-Jihadism: Even if ISIS as a movement is totally defeated, the deeper issue of reconciling Islamic political visions with modern, democratic nation-states will continue to require resolution, and the appeal of an Islamic utopia will remain