1. Az orosz piac kihívásai 2015-ben
Horváth Gergely

2. Elmúlt évek dinamikus növekedése Magyarországon3.
14.
* Előzetes adatok

3. Russia travel growth has been very strong…
Total Russian outbound travel,
Overni ght visitor arrivals from Russia by destination
World to Europe* 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
12% CAGR
No. of outbound tourists (mns)
15% CAGR
* Europe is defined as ETC members plus France, Netherlands and UK

4. … making a very large contribution to growth for all European sub-regions…
Russian contribution to growth across Europe,
% of total Europe inbound arrivals growth
C/Baltic Europe
C/E. Europe
S/Med Europe
Positive contribution
N. Europe
W. Europe 0% 5%
10%
15%
20%
25%

5. …with differences by country and city
Russian contribution to growth for European cities,
% of total inbound arrivals growth , selected cities from Global City Travel database with large Russian visits
Helsinki
Sofia Tallin Riga Prague Madrid Vilnius Rome Vienna
Lyon Istanbul Munich Barcelona Budapest
Berlin Amsterdam
Antalya Milan Paris
London
Positive
contribution 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%

6. European arrivals from Russia down in 2014…
Visits from Russia to select destinations
2014, year-to-date*, % change year ago 50 40 30 20 10
-10
-20
-30
Russian visitor nights in select destinations
2014, year-to-date*, % change year ago 50 40 30 20 10
Serbia UK
Iceland
Italy Montenegro
Turkey Cyprus Latvia Hungary Czech Rep Bulgaria Slovenia Greece
Estonia Spain Austria
Belgium Germany Romania
Lithuania Switzerland
Croatia
Poland Malta Slovakia
Serbia
Italy Hungary Netherlands
Belgium Germany Luxembourg
Austria
Czech Rep
Estonia Denmark Lithuania Switzerland
Latvia Spain Slovenia Poland Portugal Finland Malta Sweden Croatia Slovakia Norway
-10
-20
-30
Source: TourMIS
*date varies (Jan-Dec) by destination
Source: TourMIS
*date varies (Jan-Dec) by destination

7. …broadly in line with expectation
Divergence of scenarios, ETC+3 arrivals
Counterfactual Increased sanctions Latest data
Current sanctions Conflict
24000
European arrivals from Russia (000s)
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

8. But travel to Europe fell late in the year
European travel from Russia & exchange rate
Annual % change
8th September: Oil price
drops below $100pb
20%
17th March: first travel
bans and asset freezes imposed
27th November: Oil price below $75pb
10% 0%
-10%
-20%
ETC+3 arrivals* ETC+3 excl Turkey Rouble v Euro
-30%
-40%
-50%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14
Source: TourMIS, Tourism Economics.
* collated monthly TourMIS reporting, excludes some European destinations. Indicative of trend not growth rate

9. Oil price falls and collapse in rouble value…
Russia: Rouble and oil
US$/barrel
RUB/US$
120 30
RUB/US$
(RHS, inverted)
110 35 40
100 45 90 50
Oil price (LHS) 80 55 70 60 60 65 50 70 40 75
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Jan-15

10. …are leading to deep recession…
Russia: GDP and Oil Price
% year
Russia GDP
15%
140
Oil price, US$ pb
120
10%
100 5% 80 0% 60
-5% 40
-10% 20
Forecast
-15%
Source: Oxford Economics
2012
2014
2016 10

11. …not fully anticipated in prior scenarios…
Russia: GDP forecast evolution
% year 6% 4% 2% 0%
-2%
April 2014 forecast
October 2014 forecast
February 2015 forecast
-4%
-6%
-8%
Forecast
-10%
Source: Oxford Economics
2015
2016

12. Tourism a key area for import substitution
Russia: Domestic v Outbound Tourism
% year
Domestic Hotel Arrivals
Russian Outbound Trips
35%
25%
15% 5%
-5%
-15%
Forecast
-25%
Source: Oxford Economics
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018

13. Further falls for Europe expected in 2015
Divergence of scenarios, ETC+3 arrivals
Counterfactual Increased sanctions Latest trends
Current sanctions Conflict
24000
European arrivals from Russia (000s)
22000
20000
18000
-25%
16000
14000
-40%
12000
10000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

14. With large divergence in country performance
Arrivals from Russia:
Cumulative arrivals falls/gains from Russia, % change over 3 years
Slovakia Iceland Switzerland Belgium Luxembourg
Sweden Slovenia Denmark Poland Montenegro Romania Germany Greece Spain Norway Finland
Italy Netherlands
Austria Turkey Hungary France Malta Lithuania Bulgaria Estonia Croatia Cyprus UK
Czech Rep.
Latvia
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5% 0% 5%
10%

15. Russia arrivals pulling down 2015 performance
ETC+3 tourism demand by origin
% year
Total arrivals
From other ETC+3 markets
From Long-haul
From Other Europe
20%
15%
10% 5% 0%
-5%
-10%
Source : Tourism Economics
2013
2014
2015
2016

16. And risk of conflict remains
Divergence of scenarios, ETC+3 arrivals
Counterfactual Increased sanctions Latest trends
Current sanctions
Conflict
New conflict
24000
European arrivals from Russia (000s)
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
-50%
12000
10000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

17. Lehetséges válaszok A kimaradó orosz kereslet pótlása más piacokról
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