Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

The Celtic Tiger Caoimhghin Ó Croidheáin. Celtic Tiger? The first recorded use of the phrase is in a 1994 Morgan Stanley report by Kevin Gardiner. The.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "The Celtic Tiger Caoimhghin Ó Croidheáin. Celtic Tiger? The first recorded use of the phrase is in a 1994 Morgan Stanley report by Kevin Gardiner. The."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Celtic Tiger Caoimhghin Ó Croidheáin

2 Celtic Tiger? The first recorded use of the phrase is in a 1994 Morgan Stanley report by Kevin Gardiner. The term refers to Ireland's similarity to the East Asian Tigers: Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan during their periods of rapid growth in the early 1960s and late 1990s.

3 Boom and bust "Celtic Tiger" (Irish: An Tíogar Ceilteach) is a term referring to the economy of the Republic of Ireland between 1995 and 2000, a period of rapid real economic growth fuelled by foreign direct investment, and a subsequent property price bubble which rendered the real economy uncompetitive.

4 Growth of the Tiger

5 expansion The Irish economy expanded at an average rate of 9.4% between 1995 and 2000 and continued to grow at an average rate of 5.9% during the following decade until 2008, when it fell into recession.

6 Pre-boom Caught up with living standards of Western Europe Long global boom of the 1990s Investment in state-funded third-level education ‘social partnership’

7 Who funded the 'Celtic Tiger'? Mid-2008 80 per cent - UK-sourced funding in Irish domestic banks 13 per cent - US-based funding 5 per cent came from off-shore funding 2 per cent - directly from the euro zone

8

9 Tax policy Many economists credit Ireland's growth to a low corporate taxation rate (10 to 12.5% throughout the late 1990s). Since 1956, successive Irish governments have pursued low-taxation policies.

10

11 Four Asian Tigers Hong Kong's economy was the first out of the four to undergo industrialization with the development of a textile industry in the 1950s. By the 1960s, manufacturing in the British colony had expanded and diversified to include clothing, electronics and plastics for export orientation. Following Singapore's independence from Malaysia, the Economic Development Board formulated and implemented national economic strategies to promote the country's manufacturing sector. Industrial estates were set up and foreign investment was attracted to the country with tax incentives. Taiwan and South Korea began to industrialize in the mid-1960s with heavy government involvement including initiatives and policies.

12 Neo liberal policy US firms were drawn to Ireland by cheap wage costs compared to the UK, and by the limited government intervention in business compared to other EU members, and particularly to countries in Eastern Europe. By 1999 half of manufacturing jobs in foreign-based companies compared to 20% in EU

13

14

15 MNC profits 2008 [bn]

16 transformation Ireland was transformed from one of the poorest countries in Western Europe to one of the wealthiest. Disposable income soared to record levels, enabling a huge rise in consumer spending with foreign holidays accounting for over 91% of total holiday expenditure in 2004.

17 What we did... Getting 100% mortgages. Some people were even getting up to 150% mortgages - a bit extra to cover some nice furniture. Wasn't that nice of the banks? Christmas Shopping in New York Some Irish people used to just 'pop over' to New York for a bit of shopping. Many students working minimum wage jobs were able to get loans and overdrafts of a couple of thousand euro, with no way to pay it back in the foreseeable future. Anyone who was 'anyone' went skiing at least once a year, if not twice. Gran Canaria 'Leaving Cert' holidays Leaving Cert students would often celebrate the end of their Leaving Cert by jetting off as a group to Gran Canaria or even Ibiza. These excursions would often be wild, and young Irish people developed quite a bad name overseas for a while. Visiting Santa in Lapland

18

19 Unemployment Unemployment fell from 18% in the late 1980s to 4.5% by the end of 2007, and average industrial wages grew at one of the highest rates in Europe. Inflation brushed 5% per annum towards the end of the "Tiger" period, pushing Irish prices up to those of Nordic Europe, even though wage rates are roughly the same as in the UK.

20

21 investments The new wealth resulted in large investments in modernising Irish infrastructure and cities. The National Development Plan led to improvements in roads, and new transport services were developed, such as the Luas light rail lines, the Dublin Port Tunnel, and the extension of the Cork Suburban Rail. Local authorities enhanced city streets and built monuments such as the Spire of Dublin.

22 immigration Ireland's trend of net emigration was reversed as the republic became a destination for immigrants. This significantly changed Irish demographics and resulted in expanding multiculturalism, particularly in the Dublin, Cork, Limerick, and Galway areas. It was estimated in 2007 that 10% of Irish residents were foreign-born; most of the new arrivals were citizens of Poland and the Baltic states, many of whom found work in the retail and service sectors.

23 foreign-owned companies The growing success of Ireland's economy encouraged entrepreneurship and risk- taking, qualities that had been dormant during poor economic periods. However, whilst some semblance of a culture of entrepreneurship exists, foreign- owned companies account for 93% of Ireland's exports.

24

25 Double Irish The so called “Double Irish” is an arrangement under which corporations like Apple are able to divert incomes out of Ireland into low tax regimes in places like Bermuda and the Cayman Islands. It is made possible by the fact that Irish tax laws allow two companies to be set up here side by side, with one of them resident here while the other one is resident in a tax haven. Funds can then be transferred from one to the other so that cash can be held free of US tax obligations in the offshore location.

26 Largest source of foreign investment came from the Netherlands from 2002 on (10.7bn euro compared to 7.9 bn euro from USA -18.6 bn euro in total Most went to IFSC – 75% of all foreign investment in Ireland [not IT or big pharma]. Haughey set up 1987 with 10% corporation tax.

27 worldwide downturn The Celtic Tiger's momentum slowed sharply in 2002, after seven years of high growth. The Irish economic downturn was in line with the worldwide downturn.

28 information technology (IT) industry The economy was impacted by a large reduction in investment in the worldwide information technology (IT) industry. The industry had over-expanded in the late 1990s, and its stock market equity declined sharply. Ireland was a major player in the IT industry: in 2002, it had exported US$10.4 billion worth of computer services, compared to $6.9 billion from the US. Ireland accounted for approximately 50% of all mass- market packaged software sold in Europe in 2002 (OECD, 2002; OECD, 2004).

29 return of the boom After the slowdown in 2001 and 2002, Irish economic growth began to accelerate again in late 2003 and 2004. Some of the media considered that an opportunity to document the return of the Celtic Tiger – occasionally referred to in the press as the "Celtic Tiger 2" and "Celtic Tiger Mark 2".

30 return of the boom 2003-2007 In 2004, Irish growth was the highest, at 4.5%, of the EU-15 states, and a similar figure was forecast for 2005. Those rates contrast with growth rates of 1% to 3% for many other European economies, including France, Germany, and Italy.

31 return of the boom 2003-2007 The pace of expansion in lending to households from 2003-2007 was among the highest in the euro area.

32 return of the boom The return of the boom in 2004 was claimed to be primarily the result of the large construction sector's catching up with the demand caused by the first boom. The construction sector represented nearly 12% of GDP and a large proportion of employment among young, unskilled men. A number of sources, including The Economist, warned of excessive Irish property values.

33 An advertisement for 100% mortgages seen outside Dublin (17 July 2007).

34 return of the boom 2004 saw the construction of 80,000 new homes, compared to the UK's 160,000 – a nation that has 15 times Ireland's population. House prices doubled between 2000 and 2006; tax incentives were a key driver of this price rise, and the Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrats government subsequently received substantial criticism for these policies. In January 2009, UCD economist Morgan Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80% from peak to trough in real terms.

35 Bertie Ahern (born September 12, 1951) was the tenth Taoiseach of Ireland between 1997 and 2008. “The reason it's on the rise is because probably the boom times are getting even more boomer.” commenting on rising inflation in the Irish economy. Economic growth shows little sign of letting up – The Irish Times newspaper article, 14 July, 2006. "I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit suicide" commenting on people "talking the economy down", just before the crash. Speech at Irish Congress of Trade Unions conference 2007- 07-3.

36 Developing problems Rising wages, inflation, and excessive public spending led to a loss of competitiveness in the Irish economy. Irish wages were substantially above the EU average, particularly in the Dublin region, though many poorer Eastern European states had joined the EU since 2004, substantially lowering the average EU wage below its 1995 level.

37 Warning! - Warning! - Danger!

38 Local and International warnings In February 2000, William Slattery (then former Deputy Head of Banking Supervision in the Central Bank of Ireland) predicted a property price fall of 30%–50% was possible if credit growth was not curbed. In 2000, the International Monetary Fund stated that no industrial country in the last 20 years had experienced price increases on the scale of Ireland without suffering a subsequent fall. In June 2005, The Economist news magazine suggested that a large bubble existed in the Irish market.

39 Developing problems Ireland's new wealth is unevenly distributed. The United Nations reported in 2004 that Ireland was second only to the US in inequality among Western nations. According to an ESRI report published in December 2006, Ireland's child poverty level ranks 22nd out of the 26 richest countries, and it is the 2nd most unequal country in Europe.

40

41 Developing problems Banking scandals The New York Times in 2005 described Ireland as the "Wild West of European finance", a perception that helped prompt the creation of the Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority. Despite its mandate for stricter oversight, the agency never imposed major sanctions on any Irish institution, even though Ireland had experienced several major banking scandals in overcharging of their customers.

42 Developing problems Between the years of 2000 and 2003 the then Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy boosted public spending by 48% while cutting income tax. A second problem occurred when government policies allowed, or even encouraged, a housing bubble to develop, "on an immense scale". However, he wrote nothing of the impact of the European Central Bank's low interest rates which funded the property bubble and further exacerbated the overheating economy.

43

44

45 Death of the Tiger

46 In September 2008, Ireland became the first eurozone country to officially enter recession. The recession was confirmed by figures from the Central Statistics Office showing the bursting of the property bubble and a collapse in consumer spending that terminated the boom that was the Celtic Tiger.

47 What's left?

48 ghost estates

49 A ghost estate is an unoccupied housing estate, particularly one built in the Republic of Ireland during the period of economic growth when the Irish economy was known as the Celtic tiger. A massive surplus of housing, combined with the late-2000s recession, resulted in a large number of estates being abandoned, unoccupied or uncompleted. In 2010 there were more than 600 ghost estates in Ireland, and a government agency report estimated the number of empty homes in Ireland at greater than 300,000.

50 Mortgage arrears 2005 - 2012

51 Housing supply In mid 1940s 70% of all new housing built by councils and city corporations Fianna Fail reduce supply from 27% in 1985 to 6% during boom. Many bought as second homes or investment.

52 House completions

53 Huge rent increases

54 Who owns Irish debt?

55 Top 1% income

56 Half of Ireland's population on welfare 'Irish Budget 2014: Half of Ireland's population on welfare‘ By Michael Hennigan Sep 2, 2013 "Half of Ireland's population is on welfare and when recipients of child benefit, farmers dependent on public subsidies which are effectively welfare, accounting for 81% of average farm income in 2012; legal services costing the state about a half billion euros annually; public payments to doctors; a raft of corporate welfare schemes and the public service itself.

57

58 Half of Ireland's population on welfare This year, the Department of Social Protection will spend over €20.24bn on its entire range of schemes, services, and administration. At the end of May, there were 1.476m people receiving a weekly payment in respect of 2.283m beneficiaries. In addition, some 614,000 families were in receipt of the monthly child benefit payment. The CSO estimated that the total population was at 4.593m in April 2013."

59 National debt 2015 € 213,724,685,056 billion Interest per Year 10,524,945,175€ Interest per Second 334€ Debt per Citizen 46,552€ Debt as % of GDP 114.27% GDP 187,042,214,900€ Population 4,591,087 http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland

60 National debt

61

62 Company profits Gross profits for all trading companies in 2010

63 US multinationals US statistics show that Irish-incorporated subsidiaries of US multinationals made profits of $147 billion [€113.5 billion] in 2011, although the Revenue Commissioners estimated that the net taxable profits for all companies that year were just €40 billion. The difference between the two figures is down to the existence of Irish-incorporated subsidiaries of US multinationals that are not tax- resident here but are tax-resident in offshore locations such as Bermuda. It is the use of such companies by multinationals such a Google, Microsoft and Apple that has brought unwelcome global attention to Ireland’s role in their tax affairs.

64 US multinationals The amount of all taxable corporate profits in the State accounted for by US-owned companies is not known but is likely to be a considerable proportion of the overall Revenue figure. The data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which shows that Irish-incorporated US subsidiaries paid an effective tax rate of 2.2 per cent in 2011, is contained in a paper published yesterday by the Department of Finance.

65 Tax revenues 2014 Corporation tax receipts for the year to date of €2.71bn

66 New taxes

67 Property tax Bin charges Water charges USC Pay cuts

68 Unemployment

69 Unemployment rates The unemployment rate for 15-24 year olds (youth unemployment rate) decreased from 25.3% to 21.5% over the year to Q1 2015. the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the EU- 28 for February 2015 was 9.8% compared to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 9.9% for Ireland for Q1 2015. The highest unemployment rates among the EU-28 countries in Q4 2014 were recorded in Greece and Spain (26.1% and 23.7% respectively) while the lowest rate of 4.8% was recorded in Germany.

70 Future shock?


Download ppt "The Celtic Tiger Caoimhghin Ó Croidheáin. Celtic Tiger? The first recorded use of the phrase is in a 1994 Morgan Stanley report by Kevin Gardiner. The."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google