1. The Bio-Economic Model of European Fleets (BEMEF) Griffin Carpenter, New Economics Foundation

2. Background Reformed Common Fisheries Policy now in place –Article 2.2 on MSY –Article 17 on socio-economics Differing economic analyses leading up to the reform

3. Purpose Illustrate the potential Contribute to greater understanding Open up the black box Start new conservations

4. Structure Information from the Commission’s Annual Economic Report on EU fishing fleets An extension of the EIAA model (Frost, et al) “Backward” model from quota level -> effort Uses estimates of future yield (MSY) and biomass (BMSY)

5. Model structure

6. Limitations Data coverage –211/603 fleets –24,526 vessels –73% of landings, 91% of quota Matching biological and fleet information Behavioural change Multi-period static equilibrium model

7. Gains at MSY

8. Modelling impacts Profits More fish € € € More revenue Jobs Wages

9. Quota allocation Maximise jobs (jobs/kg) Minimise fuel use (l/kg) Minimise effort (KW/kg) Quota to allocate Historic share Maximise profit (profit-subsidies/kg)

10. Trade-offs

11. Policy implications TACs still being set above scientific advice We’ve produced Landing the blame reports for 2015 Baltic & Deep Sea TACs

12. Policy implications More data is needed on the biological status of species (quota and non-quota) More data on fleet performance is needed for complete fleet coverage

13. Policy implications MSY is the limit, but method matters too Gear types, ecosystem damage, discarding of catch Implementing Article 17 and managing fisheries in the public interest

14. BEMEF-powered tools … User-friendly website: www.fisheriesmodel.org Linking results to the port level More to come!

15. Find out more www.fisheriesmodel.org www.neweconomics.org @NEF Thank you