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European capacity building initiativeecbi From Contribution Framework to Ambition Mechanism HOW TO ENHANCE MITIGATION AMBITION UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT.

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Presentation on theme: "European capacity building initiativeecbi From Contribution Framework to Ambition Mechanism HOW TO ENHANCE MITIGATION AMBITION UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT."— Presentation transcript:

1 european capacity building initiativeecbi From Contribution Framework to Ambition Mechanism HOW TO ENHANCE MITIGATION AMBITION UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT Benito Müller Director, ecbi 2016 Oxford Fellows Colloquium european capacity building initiative initiative européenne de renforcement des capacités ecbi for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations pour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales sur les changements climatiques

2 european capacity building initiativeecbi The Paris Review and Communication Framework ‘Review/Assesment Cycle’ ‘Communication and Updating Cycle’

3 european capacity building initiativeecbi Definitions Cycles What is a ‘cycle’?

4 european capacity building initiativeecbi Two different cycles with different periodicities and starting points Period 1 Period 2 Period 1 Period 2Period 3 Period 4 2020 RCP2025 RCP2030 RCP2035 RCP 2122232425262728293031323334351618172019 Assumption: Review/Assessment Cycle and Contribution/Updating Cycle both have 5 year periodicity and the same starting points: 2020, 2025, 2030, … The Cycles share common “Review and Commumication Periods” Definitions Cycles

5 european capacity building initiativeecbi The Outcome associates NDCs with “time frames and/or periods of implementation” (§27). While no explicit definition of these two concepts is given, the Outcome language suggests that both are (multi-year) periods ending in multiples of 5 (namely in 2025, 2030, 2035, and so on). Moreover, it would seem to be reasonable to interpret “time frame” as the time span used in defining an NDC, and “period of implementation” as the period in which it is to be implemented. It can also safely be assumed that the period of implementation of an NDC ends at the same time as its time frame. These common end years can thus be used to identify NDCs, for instance, by defining that: “2025 NDC” refers to an NDC with a time frame or period of implementation ending in 2025. Definitions NDC Timeframes and Periods of Implementation

6 european capacity building initiativeecbi Definitions NDC Timeframes and Periods of Implementation Example of a 2025 NDC: Average annual emissions between 2015 and 2025 to be reduced to X by 2025, with implementation to start in 2020 2025 NDC PoI 2015 2020 2025 NB: Time frames can overlap! 2025 NDC: Average annual emissions between 2015 and 2025 to be reduced to X by 2025; 2030 NDC: Average annual emissions between 2020 and 2030to be reduced to Y by 2030. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2025 NDC time frame 2030 NDC time frame 2025 NDC time frame

7 european capacity building initiativeecbi 2020 RCP2025 RCP2030 RCP2035 RCP 2122232425262728293031323334351618172019 National Determination and Submission of NDCs and National Review of NDCs Global Stocktake Synthesis Report of NDCs National Determination and Submission of NDCs and National Review of NDCs National Determination and Submission of NDCs Facilitative Dialogue National Determination and Submission of NDCs and National Review of NDCs Global Stocktake Synthesis Report of NDCs Clarification of Submissions Global Stocktake Synthesis Report of NDCs The Paris Review Cycles §25: Parties are to submit (≠ communicate) their NDCs “at least 9 to 12 months in advance of the relevant session of the CMA with a view to facilitating the clarity, transparency and understanding of these contributions, including through a synthesis report prepared by the secretariat”. Art 14.2. The CMA shall undertake its first global stocktake in 2023 and every five years thereafter. The outcome of the Stocktake is meant to inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and support.

8 european capacity building initiativeecbi 2025 RCP 2025 RCP2030 RCP2035 RCP 22232425 26272829303132333435 1618172019 Communication of 2030 NDC §23 : Comm unicati on of 2025 NDC §24 : Upd atin g of 203 0 ND C §23 : Com muni catio n of 2035 NDC §24 : Upd atin g of 204 0 ND C §23 : Comm unicati on of 2045 NDC (a) §23 track 21-2526-30 2020 26-3031-35 2025 36-40 31-35 2030 21-30 2020 31-40 2030 2025 21-30 ? 36-40 2035 31-40 ? (b) §24 track nn-yy = Communication of 20yy-NDC nn-yy ? = Updating of 20yy-NDC = §23/§24 parallel national activities = harmonized national activities Communication of 2040 NDC Communicating/Updating Cycles with mid-term §24 updates § 23. Urges those Parties whose INDC … contains a time frame up to 2025 to communicate by 2020 a new nationally determined contribution and to do so every five years thereafter …; § 24. Requests those Parties whose INDC … contains a time frame up to 2030 to communicate or update by 2020 these contributions and to do so every five years thereafter …; NB: All Parties will need to engage in internal negotiations every five years, at least if updating is meant to be taken seriously. Communication of 2030 NDC Communication of 2040 NDC

9 european capacity building initiativeecbi 21-2526-30 2020 31-35 2025 36-40 2030 2035 31-35 ? 36-40 ? (b) §24 track 31-40 2020 RCP 2025 RCP2030 RCP2035 RCP 22232425 26272829303132333435 1618172019 2020 2025 2030 2035 Communication of 2030 NDC §23 : Communication of 2025 NDC Upd atin g of 203 0 ND C §23 : Comm unicati on of 2035 NDC Co mm unic atio n of 204 0 ND C §23 : Updati ng of 2035 NDC & Upd atin g of 204 0 ND C §23 : Comm unicati on of 2045 NDC (a) §23 track 21-30 21-30 ? 31-40 ? 26-30 ? Communicating/Updating Cycles with a dynamic §23 track and mid-term §24 updates Updates with maximum ratcheting-up potential § 23 bis. Urges those Parties whose INDC … contains a time frame up to 2025 to communicate by 2020 a new NDC, to update their 2035 NDC by 2025, and to do so every five years thereafter …

10 european capacity building initiativeecbi Updates with maximum ratcheting-up potential 21-2526-30 2020 31-35 2025 36-40 2030 2035 26-30 ? 31-35 ? 36-40 ? (b) ten-year time frames 2020 RCP2025 RCP2030 RCP2035 RCP 22232425 26272829303132333435 1618172019 Communication of 2030 NDC §23 : Communication of 2025 NDC Upd atin g of 203 0 ND C Comm unicati on of 2035 NDC Upd atin g of 203 5 ND C Comm unicati on of 2040 NDC Upd atin g of 204 0 ND C Comm unicati on of 2045 NDC (a) five-year time frame 21-30 31-40 2030 2025 21-30 ? 2035 31-40 ? 26-35 ? 36-45 2020 The Dynamic Communicating/Updating Cycle

11 european capacity building initiativeecbi 2020 RCP2025 RCP2030 RCP2035 RCP ND&S of 2040 NDCs and National Review of 2035 NDCs Global Stocktake (incl. of §23 2025 NDCs) Synthesis Report of 2035 NDCs and updated 2030 NDCs ND&S of 2035 NDCs and: National Review of 2030 NDCs Global Stocktake Synthesis Report of 2030 NDCs and of §23 2025 NDCs National Determination and Submission ( ND&S ) of 2030 NDCs Facilitative Dialogue 2122232425 26272829303132333435 1618172019 Updati ng of 2030 NDCs Communicati on of 2035 NDCs Data collection ND&S of 2045 NDCs; and National Review of 2040 NDCs Global Stocktake (incl. of 2030 NDCs) Synthesis Report of 2040 NDCs & updated 2035 NDCs Data collection and Art 13.7 reporting on §23 2025 NDCs Data collection and Art 13.7 reporting on 2030 NDCs Clarification of Submissions Updating of 2035 NDCs Communicati on of 2040 NDCs Updating of 2040 NDCs Communicati on of 2045 NDCs §23 : Communicati on of 2025 NDCs Co mm uni cati on of 203 0 ND Cs The Dynamic Ambition Mechanism HOW? Urges those Parties whose INDC … contains a time frame up to 2025 to communicate by 2020 a new nationally determined contribution and to do so every five years thereafter …;[§ 23] Requests those Parties whose INDC … contains a time frame up to 2030 to communicate or update by 2020 these contributions and to do so every five years thereafter …;[§ 24] Request all Parties in 2025 to communicate a 2035 NDC and update their 2030 NDC, and to do so every five years thereafter.

12 european capacity building initiativeecbi Thank you!

13 european capacity building initiativeecbi 21-2526-30 2020 31-35 2025 36-40 2030 2035 26-30 ? 31-35 ? 36-40 ? (a) §23 track (b) §24 track 21-30 ? 31-40 ? 2025 RCP2030 RCP2035 RCP 22232425 26272829303132333435 1618172019 2020 2025 2030 2035 §24 : Updating of 2030 NDC §23 : Communication of 2025 & 2030 NDC §24 : Communication of 2040 NDC §23 : Updating of 2030 NDC & Comm unicati on of 2035 NDC §24 : Updating of 2040 NDC §23 : Updating of 2035 NDC & Com munic ation of 2040 NDC §24 : Communication of 2050 NDC §23 : Updating of 2040 NDC & Comm unicati on of 2045 NDC Communicating/Updating Cycle with a dynamic §23 track and end-term §24 updates

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