1. F ACTORS A SSOCIATED WITH INCIDENCES OF C HILDBEARING AMONG F EMALE Y OUTH IN S OUTH A FRICA : I S S CHOOL T RAJECTORY A C ONTRIBUTING F ACTOR ? Nthatisi Leseba University of Kwa-Zulu Natal 16 June 2016 Research Proposal Presented to the 5 th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians 13-17 June 2016

2. P RESENTATION O UTLINE  Introduction  Justification of the study  Research Questions  Proposed Theoretical Framework  Proposed Methodology  Limitation 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

4. I NTRODUCTION (1)  International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), 1994 Cairo  The guarantee of education to all : with an emphasis on young girls and women.  The resolution was later emphasised in the MDG’s (Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)). (2000-2015)  Recently, the Sustainable Development Goals are still emphasising the resolutions.  The interventions were also indirectly aimed to reduce adolescent fertility and multiple factors underlying it. 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

5. I NTRODUCTION (2) Several years after a number of interventions youth childbearing is still a problem.  Africa  Youth childbearing is still relatively high in Africa with Adolescent Childbearing Rate of 104 births per 1000 female youth in 2013  With Niger having 54% of women having given birth before the age of 18  Western Africa – 124 births per 1000 female youth  Middle Africa – 144 births per 1000 female youth  South Africa  Youth Childbearing has been declining since 1994 but not for everyone  Incidences of childbearing among schoolgirls has been increasing:  68 000 – 2009; 89 000-2011; 99 000-2013 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

7. J USTIFICATION OF THE STUDY (1)  Education is a critical factor underlying adolescent childbearing and human sustainable development.  Schools act as a protective environment for young girls.  However, the South African Educational System is characterised by :  Slow Progress  High repetition rates from one grade to the other  High drop out rates  Re-entry in the educational system  Late entry 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

8. J USTIFICATION OF T HE STUDY (2)  It is of importance to determine if school trajectories are contributing factor of increasing incidences of youth childbearing, especially now when South Africa is faced with a number of recommendations in improving the effectiveness of education and trying to move towards sustainable human development and National developmental Plans.  Improving the quality of education and skill development innovations 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

10. R ESEARCH Q UESTIONS  What percentage of females 15 – 20 years had repeated a grade?  What are incidences of youth childbearing among females aged 15-20 years who gave birth in 2011 -2012?  Is there an association between incidences of youth childbearing and school trajectory?  If so, does the association between incidence of childbearing and school trajectory remain significant while controlling for other demographic and socio economic factors? 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

11. T HEORETICAL F RAMEWORK 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa  The main objective of the framework was to identify social and economic factors associated with teenage pregnancy in Africa.  Female literacy as a central factor

12. P ROPOSED M ETHODOLOGY  Data  Analysis a longitudinal survey - National Income Dynamic Study (NIDS) Wave 2 (2012).  The study is national representative  Where 32 633 individuals were selected from a sum of 8040 households.  The sample of interest resulted into 2050 female aged 15-20 in the 2012 data set with 1319 of those female youth had given birth. 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

13. V ARIABLE D EFINITIONS Dependent Variable  Females aged 15-20 who gave birth in 2011 and 2012 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

14. V ARIABLE D EFINITION Independent variables  Ever repeated a grade  Other Demographic and Socio-economic factors such as : o Population group o Religion o Location of residence (urban / rural) o Household configuration (living with both parents, living with only one parent, living with another relative) o Mother’s education o Household socioeconomic status o Ethnicity 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

15. D ATA ANALYSIS  The study will use a logistic regression model where the dependent variable will be coded as;  1“1. Having given birth in 2011-2012”and 0“0. For those that have not given birth at all”  The following multivariate logistic regression will be adopted in the study.   Where =1, 2, 3 ………… 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

16. L IMITATIONS  The data does not report the year in which one repeated a grade, it may be before or after child birth.  There is not data on sexual and reproductive health to strengthen the socio-demographic factors as per the theoretical framework  The data will only determine the association than causation because it is a cross-sectional study. 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

17. T HANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME, IT IS A THOUGHTFUL GIFT OF ALL... 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa