1. MCSD 5-YEAR FORECAST PRESENTED MAY 19, 2016 BY RANDY BERTRAM, TREASURER BOARD APPROVAL MAY 23, 2016

2. MCSD 5-YEAR FORECAST REVENUE GENERAL PROPERTY AND PUBLIC UTILITY TAX RESTRICTED & UNRESTRICTED STATE AID PROPERTY TAX ALLOCATION ALL OTHER OPERATING REVENUE EXPENDITURES PERSONNEL SERVICES AND BENEFITS PURCHASED SERVICES SUPPLIES, MATERIAL & CAPITAL OUTLAY INTERGOVERNMENTAL DEBT & OTHER OBJECTS FORECAST COMPARISON SUMMARY

3. REVENUE UNRESTRICTED STATE AIDRESTRICTED STATE AID Currently this revenue is about 40% of our revenue. We currently receive $3,964 or 67% of the state’s per pupil funding amount of $5,900. The district's year ‐ over ‐ year funding gains are capped by state legislation at 7.5% in 2016 and 2017. The district's current model clearly suggests that unfunded formula remains in 2018 through 2020, and a 5.0% year ‐ over ‐ year cap for 2018, 2019, and 2020 is being modeled. Restricted state funding is primarily comprised of economic disadvantaged funding and makes up about 5.6% of total district revenue. Starting in 2014 the district was required to post this revenue separately from unrestricted, which is why there is an increase reflected above in 2014. Approximately 70% of the district's students are identified as economically disadvantaged for state funding purposes; it is this high level of poverty that generates the bulk of this revenue. Unfunded Formula Above CapFY15-$15,323,822 FY16-$14,268,958 FY17-$9,804,484 FY18-$10,779,677 FY19-$9,686,317 FY20-$8,860,250

4. PROPERTY TAX ALLOCATION PROPERTY TAX ALLOCATION (PTA) IS COMPRISED OF THREE TYPES OF REVENUE THAT WHEN COMBINED ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 10.5% OF DISTRICT REVENUE. ONE TYPE OF PTA IS PROJECTED TO DECLINE STARTING IN 2018, AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH STATE LAW. THE FIRST TWO TYPES OF PTA REVENUE INVOLVE STATE REIMBURSEMENT FOR LOCAL REAL ESTATE TAX CREDITS (DEDUCTIONS). IN ESSENCE, LOCAL RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE TAXES ARE REDUCED BY ROLLBACK (12.5% FOR OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSES) AND ALSO FOR HOMESTEAD (DISABLED, SENIOR CITIZENS, ETC.). THIS REVENUE REIMBURSEMENT IS ABOUT $3.6 MILLION OF THE PTA TOTAL. THE THIRD TYPE OF REVENUE INCLUDED IN THE PTA CATEGORY IS FOR THE STATE'S REIMBURSEMENT OF LOCAL PERSONAL PROPERTY TAX REVENUE LOSSES RESULTING FROM STATEWIDE TAX POLICY CHANGES IN 2005. THIS REVENUE IS SCHEDULED TO BE PHASED OUT STARTING IN 2018, AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOCAL PROPERTY TAX RATES TO OFFSET THE STATE'S ANNUAL PHASE OUT AMOUNT. THE STATE'S REIMBURSEMENT IS SCHEDULED TO REDUCE FROM $3.4 MILLION IN 2017 TO $1.7 MILLION IN 2020. THE PHASE OUT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE $1.7 MILLION IS ELIMINATED. EACH YEAR THE DISTRICT'S LOCAL PROPERTY TAX RATE WILL BE INCREASED INCREMENTALLY, BY STATE LAW, TO REPLACE THE STATE'S REIMBURSEMENT.

5. All Other Operating Revenue OTHER OPERATING REVENUE IS INFLATED IN 2014, 2015 AND 2016 BECAUSE OF ANNUAL BORROWING TO FINANCE CAPITAL PROJECTS. THE DISTRICT BORROWED FOR THE BARNITZ STADIUM PROJECT $1,587,915 IN FY 2014, $1,600,000 IN FY 2015, AND ONLY $1,090,000 FOR FY2016 BECAUSE OF THE $520,000 (FY 2014 $200,000 AND $320,000 FY 2015) RECEIVED IN DONATIONS TOWARDS THE PROJECT. CAPITAL BORROWING, TUITION (INCLUDING OPEN ENROLLMENT) PAID BY OTHER DISTRICTS TO MIDDLETOWN MAKES ‐ UP THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THIS REVENUE. RECEIVED $1,475,000 IN A MEDICAID REIMBURSEMENT (2005-2010) IN OTHER SOURCES OF REVENUE IN FY16.

6. EXPENDITURES PERSONNEL SERVICES EMPLOYEE BENEFITS Salary expense is 36.5% of the district's budget, and has declined from $38.92 million in 2011 to a projected level of $26.6 million in 2016. The decline has occurred because the district has contracted out significant non ‐ instructional services, and has further reduced staffing to balance its budget. For 2017 the district is realizing a decline in staff for attrition and the employees who are leaving and being replace are come in at lower costs. Employees will be receiving step increases for the first time in 5 years and will receive a 1.5% base increase. Steps and 1.5% base increase are projected throughout the forecast period. Salary costs are estimated to rise on average 2.96% over the current forecast period. At 12.7% of the budget, benefit cost increases have been significantly contained by four factors: First, the district has reduced payroll costs through outsourcing, Secondly, the district health insurance increases were lowered in 2015, Thirdly, the district finished annual retirement incentive payments primarily in 2014, with a small residual payment in 2015, Finally, the district has reduced the number of employees and therefore fewer health insurance plans are in place. Insurance Increases are estimated at -2.45% in FY16, 2.5% in FY17, 6% in FY18 and FY19, and 7% in FY20.

7. EXPENDITURES PURCHASED SERVICES YEAR-OVER-YEAR EXPENDITURE TREND Purchased services are 36.9% of the budget and have increased since 2011 because of the outsourcing of non ‐ instructional services, but also because of the increases in community school and scholarship (voucher) tuition payments. Total tuition payments (including scholarships, open enrollment and PSEO/CCP payments) make up 49% of purchased services, and community school tuition payments were the single largest in 2015 at $7.3 million, up $2.1 million from 2011. The second largest category of purchased services involved outsourced services such as transportation and custodial. All of these outsourced services totaled $11 million in 2015. Purchased services are expected to grow on aver of 3.22% during this forecast.

8. EXPENDITURES SUPPLIES & MATERIALSCAPITAL OUTLAY Supplies were just 1.9% of the overall budget in 2015. Of the $1.4 million spent in 2015, $1.0 million was used for instructional supplies, and $306,000 was used for transportation. The district is committed to its instructional programs and the current textbook adoptions, both printed and electronic, to support these programs. As a result of this commitment the district has included an average of $400,000 annually for the next five years to procure necessary textbooks. Textbooks expenses were accelerated in 2016 to “catch-up” many of the needed textbooks throughout the district. We are forecasting an additional 2% annual for supplies and materials. Fiscal year 2015 saw the largest capital outlay expenditures in the past five years, but still capital outlay only represents 2.6% of the district's budget. The increase in 2014 and 2015 was for building improvements and equipment. The district has reviewed overall capital needs and has included in its capital projections $500,000 annually for maintenance and capital needs. This forecast also includes $250,000 annually for technology needs.

9. EXPENDITURES INTERGOVERNMENTAL DEBTOTHER OBJECTS Debt includes the repayment of energy conservation, cash flow ($3,500,000) borrowing as well as capital (Barnitz Stadium $1,600,000) borrowing that occurred in 2015. In FY 2016 the forecast also includes cash flow ($2,500,000) and capital (Barnitz Stadium $1,090,000) borrowing. The 2016 capital borrowing was not additional borrowing, but instead was a refinancing of the FY 2015 original loan, but at a lesser amount of principal. No further refinancing is planned as the district will pay off the Barnitz Stadium loan in FY 2016. Other operating expenses include auditor and treasurer tax collection fees, building insurance, and other smaller operating Costs. The projections reflect modest inflationary growth through 2020.

10. FORECAST COMPARISON - REVENUES

11. FORECAST COMPARISON - EXPENDITURES

12. MCSD 5-YEAR FORECAST SUMMARY The district’s current forecast has improved from the October forecast. The improvements come from a Medicaid reimbursement of $1,475,000, donations received for the Barnitz Stadium project, and the use of future long-term planning for textbooks, technology and building maintenance. The district was able to give the staff a 1.5% base salary increase for FY17 while reinstating the salary steps in FY17 and give the staff a one-time retention bonus at the end of FY16. Because of the financial improvements, a board approved 10% cash carryover policy and sound management practices, the district recently received an improved credit rating from Standard and Poor's Global of an A- Stable outlook to an A- Positive outlook.

13. MCSD 5-YEAR FORECAST