1. A new scheme for evaluating road projects by considering their effects after disaster 19 March 2013 PIARC TC1.4 meeting Germany Hirotaka SEKIYA Senior Researcher Traffic Engineering Division National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management (NILIM) Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) Japan

2. Source: The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 2 浸水高の分布 震央 (M9.0) 0 - 10m 10 - 30m Over 30m Epicenter (M9.0) Height of the tsunami Killed16,000 Missing4,000 Injured6,000 Destroyed buildings115,000 Damages (as of July 2012) RankMagnitudeYearPlace 19.51960Chile 29.21964Alaska 39.12004Indonesia 49.01952Kamchatka 49.02011Japan Context

3. Source: The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group Tokyo Expressway National highway Closure on expressway Closure on national highway 3 Devastated road networks Context

4. 4 Current scheme for evaluating road projects BCR > 1 is a prerequisite for adopting and budgeting a project. Monetized impacts (B) are: Reduction in travel time, Reduction in travel cost, and Reduction in traffic accidents. Making it difficult to implement projects in areas where traffic volume is low, consequently exhibiting a low BCR.

5. 5 New scheme Established in 2011 Evaluating a road project by considering its effects on rescue and recovery efforts after a disaster. BCR has a reduced significance. Confirming three factors: A)Necessity of a project, B)Effectiveness, and C)Efficiency (by comparing several alternative proposals).

6. 6 New scheme RankABCD Disaster-resistanceResistant Not RedundancyRedundantNotRedundantNot Example: How to confirm “B) Effectiveness” Index to show connectivity between cities in the event of disaster The 2011 earthquake caused many villages to be cut off Evaluate how a project will improve the connectivity between cities

7. Disaster-resistant L ij prim. Disaster-resistance No possibility of the primary link (L ij prim. ) becoming impassable in the event of a disaster Not disaster-resistant City ｊ City i Area inundated by the tsunami New scheme 7

8. 1.5*T ij prim. T ij alt. City ｊ City i 1.5*T ij prim. T ij alt. RedundantNot redundant Redundancy If the travel time of the alternative link (T ij alt ) is within 1.5 times that of the primary link (T ij prim ) Alternative link: Has the potential of remaining passable in the event of a disaster Provides the shortest travel time or distance after the primary link New scheme 8 ><

9. 9 Estimating how a proposed project will improve the rank Karakuwa-kita 1km Rikuzentakata Iwate prefecture Proposed road Existing road Area inundated by the tsunami RankABCD Disaster-resistanceResistant Not RedundancyRedundantNotRedundantNot Without projectRank D With projectRank A

10. 10 Reference Year 2011 Mar.Great East Japan Earthquake July Presented a rough route of the proposed road with a width of 1 km. Invited public opinions. Aug.Presented the route of the proposed road with a width of 0.5 km and the locations of interchanges. Invited public opinions. Sep.Evaluated the proposed road project at the Road Subcommittee of the Panel on Infrastructure Development. Publicized the evaluation results. OctoberSubmitted to the Diet the third supplementary budget bill including the road projects in disaster- affected areas. Nov. The third supplementary budget bill was approved.

11. 11 Questions or Comments?