1. Prof. Dr.-Ing Jochen H. Schiller Inst. of Computer Science Freie Universität Berlin Germany 11.1 The future of mobile and wireless networks – Is it 5G? All IP? Licensed? Public? Private? Mobile Communications Chapter 11 : Outlook Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016

2. 11.2 Mobile and wireless services – Always Best Connected Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016 UMTS 2 Mbit/s LTE 10 Mbit/s LAN 100 Mbit/s, WLAN 54 Mbit/s LTE, UMTS 2 Mbit/s GSM 115 kbit/s, WLAN 11 Mbit/s GSM 53 kbit/s Bluetooth 500 kbit/s GSM/EDGE 384 kbit/s, WLAN 5 Mbit/s LAN, WLAN 100 Mbit/s

3. 11.3 Wireless systems: overview of the development Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016 cellular phonessatellites wireless LANcordless phones 1992: GSM 1994: DCS 1800 2001: IMT-2000 1987: CT1+ 1982: Inmarsat-A 1992: Inmarsat-B Inmarsat-M 1998: Iridium 1989: CT 2 1991: DECT 199x: proprietary 1997: IEEE 802.11 1999: 802.11b, Bluetooth 1988: Inmarsat-C analogue digital 1991: D-AMPS 1991: CDMA 1981: NMT 450 1986: NMT 900 1980: CT0 1984: CT1 1983: AMPS 1993: PDC 4…4.5…5G – fourth to fifth generation: when and how? Currently rather 3.9 to 4G 2000: GPRS 2000: IEEE 802.11a 2014: Fourth Generation (Internet based)

4. 11.4 Overlay Networks - the global goal Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016 regional metropolitan area campus-based in-car, in-house, personal area vertical handover horizontal handover integration of heterogeneous fixed and mobile networks with varying transmission characteristics

5. 11.5 LTE Wireless access technologies Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016 DAB 802.11a/g/n/ac relative speed [km/h] 250 100 50 5 0 10 kbit/s2 Mbit/s20 Mbit/s>300 Mbit/s DECT UMTS GSM, TETRA bandwidth 802.11b Bluetooth Point-to-multipoint distribution systems physical/ economic border EDGE

6. 11.6 5G Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016 Source: GSMA Intelligence

7. 11.7 Key features of future mobile and wireless networks Improved radio technology and antennas -smart antennas, beam forming, multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) – see LTE, 802.11ac -space division multiplex to increase capacity, benefit from multipath -software defined radios (SDR) -use of different air interfaces, download new modulation/coding/... -requires a lot of processing power (UMTS RF 10000 GIPS) -dynamic spectrum allocation -spectrum on demand results in higher overall capacity Core network convergence -IP-based, quality of service, mobile IP Ad-hoc technologies -spontaneous communication, power saving, redundancy Simple and open service platform -intelligence at the edge, not in the network (as with IN) -more service providers, not network operators only Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016

8. 11.8 Example IP-based 4G/Next G/… network Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016 IP-based core SS7 signalling Internet GSM UMTS public WLAN RNC BSC firewall, GGSN, gateway gateways server farm, gateways, proxies PSTN, CS core MSC SGSN router broadcast access points private WLAN private WPAN

9. 11.9 Software Defined Mobile network Controller Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016 Source: Rost et. Al, Mobile Network Architecture Evolution toward 5G, IEEE Communications Magazine, vol. 54, no. 5, 2016

10. 11.10 3GPP LTE standardization roadmap toward 5G Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016 Source: Rost et. Al, Mobile Network Architecture Evolution toward 5G, IEEE Communications Magazine, vol. 54, no. 5, 2016

11. 11.11 Potential problems Quality of service -Today‘s Internet is best-effort -Integrated services did not work out -Differentiated services have to prove scalability and manageability -What about the simplicity of the Internet? DoS attacks on QoS? Internet protocols are well known… -…also to attackers, hackers, intruders -security by obscurity does not really work, however, closed systems provide some protection Reliability, maintenance -Open question if Internet technology is really cheaper as soon as high reliability (99.9999%) is required plus all features are integrated Missing charging models -Charging by technical parameters (volume, time) is not reasonable -Pay-per-application may make much more sense Killer application? There is no single killer application! -Choice of services and (almost) seamless access to networks determine the success Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016

12. 11.12 Thanks, take care – and have fun with Mobile Communications! Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen H. Schiller www.jochenschiller.de MC - 2016 Source: Ed Jones/AFP, Seoul, Südkorea,, 22.06.2016