1. THE SoM PARADIGM Brian Enke (AI, Simulations, Systems Integration)
Senior Research Analyst
Southwest Research Institute,
Boulder, CO
(AI, Simulations, Systems Integration)

2. Developing a “Calculus”
or...
Developing a “Calculus”
of Space Missions
Examine a highly successful calculus
Learn three important lessons
Apply the lessons to Mars missions

3. Can we safely send explorers to Mars for less than $1 billion??
Answer interesting questions along the way...
Can we safely send explorers to Mars for less than $1 billion??

4. W. Edwards Deming
Walter Shewhart

5. “The Father of Quality”
W. Edwards Deming
“The Father of Quality”
Work Effort Results
Total Costs
Quality =

6. “The Father of Quality”
W. Edwards Deming
“The Father of Quality”
*#*$&!^
America:
???
Work Effort Results
TOTAL COSTS
Quality =
(Constant)
(Reduced)

7. “The Father of Quality”
W. Edwards Deming
“The Father of Quality”
Iteration
requires
proper focus!!
Japan:
???
Work Effort Results
Total Costs
QUALITY =
(Increase)
???

8. THREE PRINCIPLES... Establish basic formulas
Focus on the “key ingredient”
Iterate

9. Possible calculus for a typical space mission:=
Goals
Capabilities

10. Possible calculus for a typical space mission:=
Complexity
(Investment x Risk)

11. Possible calculus for a typical space mission:= ~= =
Goals
Capabilities
Complexity
(Investment x Risk)

12. COMPLEXITY: = ~= = COMPLEXITY The “key ingredient” we need to reduce?
Goals
Capabilities
COMPLEXITY
(Investment x Risk)

13. Albert Einstein:
Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex... It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction.

14. Example 1: = ~= = COMPLEXITY Goals Capabilities (Investment x Risk)
Will “more testing”
reduce mission risk?
(Reduced)
(Constant)
(Constant)
(Constant) = ~= =
(Increased)
Goals
Capabilities
COMPLEXITY
(Investment x Risk)

15. Example 2: = ~= = COMPLEXITY Goals Capabilities (Investment x Risk)
Why is Mars Direct a safer,
cheaper mission than SEI?
???
(Reduced)
(Reduced)
(Increased)
(Increased) = ~= =
(Reduced)
Goals
Capabilities
COMPLEXITY
(Investment x Risk)

16. = ~= = COMPLEXITY Goals Capabilities (Investment x Risk)
Technology Resources
Innovation
Bureaucracy
MODIFIERS:
(Reduced)
(Reduced)
(Increased)
(Increased) = ~= =
(Reduced)
Goals
Capabilities
COMPLEXITY
(Investment x Risk)

17. We can reduce complexity
AHA!!
We can reduce complexity
by being smarter and
more efficient!
Credit: Warner Bros.
Credit: Warner Bros.
How else??

18. Example 3: = ~= = COMPLEXITY Goals Capabilities (Investment x Risk)
What happens if we simplify
the goals of the mission?
(Reduced?)
(Reduced)
(Reduced)
(Reduced) = ~= =
(Reduced?)
Goals
Capabilities
COMPLEXITY
(Investment x Risk)

19. Simplifying our goals seems like another easy way to
AHA - Again!!
Simplifying our goals seems
like another easy way to
reduce complexity!
Credit: Warner Bros.
Credit: Warner Bros.
But how??

20. THREE PRINCIPLES... Focus on Complexity (key ingredient)
Establish basic formulas
Focus on Complexity (key ingredient)
Iterate

21. LAYERS! Complexity is like an Ogre... ... because Ogres are
like onions...
... and onions have
LAYERS!

22. = ~= Reducing complexity: Focus on the core of the onion... Goals
Capabilities
COMPLEXITY

23. Linus Torvalds (LINUX)
Example:
Linus Torvalds (LINUX)
Core OS
Software
Services
External features

24. Which of these are
“CORE GOALS”??
(Hint: what do all possible
humans-to-Mars missions
need to accomplish?)
Safe Crew Launch
Safe Crew Transit
Safe Crew Landing
Keep Crew Alive on Mars
Maximize Exploration Range
Maximize science/geology
Study Crop Growth
Fix Broken Systems
Safe Crew Return to Earth
Safe Crew Ascent to Orbit

25. Core Goals: Safe Crew Launch Safe Crew Transit Safe Crew Landing
Keep Crew Alive
Maximize Exploration Range
Maximize science/geology
Study Crop Growth
Fix Broken Systems
Safe Crew Return to Earth
Safe Crew Ascent to Orbit

26. Core Goals: Safe Crew Launch Safe Crew Transit Safe Crew Landing
Keep Crew Alive
Fix Broken Systems
Science/Geology
Mobility...
Return to Earth

27. So... which of these are
“CORE CAPABILITIES”??
(Hint: which are needed to
accomplish the core goals?)
Rockets
Orbital Construction
Artificial Gravity
Radiation Shielding
CELSS
Landing Heavy Payloads
Mars Science Instruments
MAV/ERV
Mobile Habitat
Greenhouses

28. Landing Heavy Payloads Engineering Capabilities
Use the 80/20 Rule:
Spend 80% of our time and energy on the core and 20% on the rest. (repeat through layers)
Launch Rockets
Radiation Shielding
Landing Heavy Payloads
CELSS
Engineering Capabilities
Artificial Gravity
Mobile Habitat
MAV/ERV

29. THREE PRINCIPLES... Iterate (SoM) Establish basic formulas
Focus on Complexity (key ingredient)
Iterate (SoM)

30. Landing Heavy Payloads Engineering Capabilities
SoM (Series of Missions) Iteration:
Missions every 2 years expand our capabilities on Mars (which reduces risk --> complexity):
Mission 1
Launch Rockets
Radiation Shielding
Landing Heavy Payloads
CELSS
Engineering Capabilities
Artificial Gravity
Mobile Habitat
Mission 2
Science/Geology
Mission 3
Crop Growth, ...

31. Can we safely send explorers to Mars for less than $1 billion?? NO!
Answer interesting questions along the way...
Can we safely send explorers to Mars for less than $1 billion??
NO!
(but we could send settlers)

32. Shadows of Medusa Mission calculus Reduced complexity SoM iteration
Signed by author
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33. Possible calculus for a typical space mission:= ~= =
Goals
Capabilities
COMPLEXITY
(Investment x Risk)