1. Future Energy Scenarios 2016 – Pathways towards a 2050 future Energy insights Duncan Sluce and Navdeep Kahlon 10.00 am

2.  The 2016 scenarios are an evolution of those published in 2015 Future Energy Scenarios 2016

3.  Chapter 5 details  4 main scenarios to 2050  7 sensitivities around Gone Green – all attempting to achieve 2050 targets  3 main (non Gone Green) scenarios that adjusted to achieve 2050 targets Future Energy Scenarios 2016 – Chapter 5

4. Emissions Progress Good progress made More required in all sectors

5. Carbon intensity of electricity generation All scenarios show considerable decarbonisation Slow Progression and Gone Green achieve zero carbon

6. Electricity Electricity 0 carbon >2040 Double capacity in 2050 Flexibility requirements increase throughout the period

7. Heating Fundamental changes required More work needed

8. Transport Currently on track Heavily influenced by aviation in 2050

9. 5 th carbon Budget recommendation Gone green aligns very well with CCC recommendation

10. CCS and Hydrogen Technologies likely to be key to helping achieve 2050 carbon targets in a least cost pathway CCS opportunities in low carbon flexible electricity generation High temperature heat decarbonisation Negative emissions with biomass Hydrogen production Hydrogen opportunities in Transport Heat Electricity flexibility

11. Sensitivities 7 sensitivities created to explore how the 2050 target can be achieved. Mainly more expensive and generally considerably harder to operate elect system Demand can aid pathway considerably but technology changes are fundamental to achieving 2050 carbon targets. Cannot be done in a cost effective manner without HPs We want to expand on this work over coming months

12. Non Gone Green scenarios achieving 2050 target Beginning of work in this area. None can decarbonise heat quick enough so other options required. Other options employed in all situations is CCS to generate H2

13. Questions  What would you like to see more of?  Different pathways to achieve 2050 targets(13%)  More detail in heating(41%)  More detail in transport(33%)  More detail in electricity(39%)  More focus on targets that do not achieve 2050 targets(15%)  More focus on specific / new technologies(37%)  No answer(17%)

14. Questions  When do you think CCS will be commercialised in the UK?  2025(2%)  2030 (31%)  2040 (33%)  2050 (11%)  Not before 2050 / Never(9%)  No answer(20%)

15. Questions  Have we missed any key technologies? Technologies that are in FES, but not explicitly discussed in the webinar  Wave, tidal and hydro  Energy storage technology,  to balance supply with demand over a longer term (several hour) basis will be key to future energy storage vs cost equation  Fracking  Fuel Cell  You haven't mentioned Smart Grid/Demand Management but can we assume it is covered in full reports? Considered but discounted  Fusion – our engagement indicates it will not achieve large scale commercialisation in the timescale  Thorium based nuclear reactors – our engagement indicates it will not achieve large scale commercialisation in the timescale  Coal CCS – Our scenarios choose gas instead of coal

16. Questions  Have we missed any key technologies? Thank you for these comments and points. These are areas we are already looking into and will consider publishing our thoughts on in due course.  Long asset life in energy means that concept-commercialisation is longer than for other products. This supports your approach of only considering products that are post concept  Micro grid, Not specifically a technology, but the move towards off- grid solutions combining a range of these technologies on a localised small scale  Islanding  I wonder if we could hear more about the potential of small modular reactor nuclear power stations and advances in nuclear power technology  Flywheel energy storage

17. Upcoming events FES WorkshopsMore information to follow Edinburgh3 rd Oct Warwick11 th Oct Cardiff13 th Oct London19 th Oct Download the 2016 FES and FES in 5: http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ 2050 FES Analyst Workshops More information to follow TBAAutumn TBAWinter

18. Future Energy Scenarios 2016 – Pathways towards a 2050 future Thank you Duncan.sluce@nationalgrid.com