1. The Freshwater Cycle and its Role in the Pan-Arctic System: Contributions from the NSF-Freshwater Initiative (FWI) ________________________________________________ SEARCH Open Science Meeting Seattle, WA 27-30 October 2003 _________________________ Charles J. Vörösmarty University of New Hampshire

2. Goals Arctic-CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH Freshwater Initiative (FWI) Q1: Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying? Quantify Stocks and Fluxes Document Changes to the Arctic Hydrologic Cycle Q2: If So, Why? Understand the Source of the Change: Attribution Q3: What Are the Implications Develop Predictive Simulations of Feedbacks to the Earth and Human Systems Arctic-CHAMP= Community-wide Hydrologic Analysis and Monitoring Program ASOF = Int’l Arctic-Sub-Arctic Ocean Flux study

3. Rivers / Land Hinzman Kane Karabanov Lettenmaier Peterson Serreze Smith Yang Atmosphere- Land- Ocean Holland/Wu Semiletov Vörösmarty Snow, Ice, Permafrost England Pielke Yu Zhang Ocean & Sea Ice Ackerman/Francis Falkner Lee Proshutinsky Steele Tremblay FWI PROJECT THEMES CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH (AO NSF-02-071) Human Dimensions White Broad balance of: (a) time/space scales; (b) disciplines; (c) tools/approaches

4. Visit the CHAMP Science Management Office Website http://arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu NSF-ARCSS Charged Arctic-CHAMP to Help Coordinate FWI -Oversight via SSC and FWI All-Hands Meetings

5. Earth System & Societal Feedbacks From: M. Vellinga; CLIVAR Change to Freshwater Cycle Compromise THC Reduce Northward Heat Transport Enormous Societal Challenges (e.g. feed 10 billion) Peterson et al. 2002, Science Peterson et al. 2002 Major Earth System & Societal Feedbacks

6. “Simple” questions asked ---> complex interactions uncovered Gaps identified Playing field on which disagreements can arise Links physics, biogeochemistry, biology Q: What is the impact of climate change on sea ice? Feedback and System Sensitivity Studies (a la CHAMP)

7. Simple Process Models: First Formal Tests of Heuristic Notions THC Sea Ice Heat Balance

8. The Freshwater Cycle Links Every Major Arctic Systems Component -- Change Resonates through System-- Physics Biology Biogeochemistry Natural variability Anthropogenic change Human vulnerability.… and central to the analysis of……. Challenge: To Develop Dynamic Arctic Earth System Models Community Model

9. High Permafrost Sub-Watershed 5 Jun e 200 1 12 Jun e 200 1 5 June 2001 Surface Soil Moisture (% Saturation ) Courtesy of Hinzman et al. Kuparkuk (AK) 1995 End of Season Conditions Fraction of winter precipitation returned to atmosphere End of winter snow water equivalent depth distribution Courtesy of Pielke et al.

10. Large-scale sections Boundary current section …based on Jones et al. (1998); Steele & Boyd (1998); Proshutinsky et al. (2002); Rigor et al. (2002) From: Steele et al. From: Falkner et al. FWI/ASOF Oceanographic Studies of Regional Sea Studies

11. Basin Studies of Water Budgets Components and Discharge From: Lettenmaier et al.

12. Domain of the E-RIMS, with some key data sets and proposed products. Runoff contributed from the pan-Arctic land mass is mapped together with variability in the Arctic Ocean. Note plumes of low salinity water associated with inflow through Bering Strait and large river basins of Eurasia and N. America. These anomalies will be analyzed and tracked to "source areas" within the linked atmosphere, land, ice, and ocean system. Gridded fields, basin-specific and pan-Arctic aggregations are planned as operational products. River temperature (lower right) from Russia is one of several new data sets to be incorporated into E-RIMS, in this case supplying an important boundary condition to the ocean model that estimates outflow through the Fram Strait (lower left). A real-time component, expanding our existing hydrographic and NWP archive (top right), is proposed. Through analysis of historical time series, contemporary changes to the Arctic water cycle are placed into broader context. Location of RIMS historical and operational hydrographic stations are shown. E-RIMS Source data: Mark Serreze (CU), Mike Steele (UW), UNH, and government agencies from around the pan-Arctic River Discharge - enhanced effort - Ability to link land and ocean processes - increase conversations between scientists - Temperature data ArcticRIMSR-ArcticNET E-RIMS FRAMEWORK FOR COUPLED PAN-ARCTIC LAND-OCEAN-ATMOSPHIRE STUDIES Courtesy of Vörösmarty et al.

13. Stocks, residence times Critical but Uncertain Pathway: Atmospheric Budget Closure Disparity Large -- Land….1700 km 3 y -1 --Ocean….2800 km 3 y -1 A FIRST-ORDER ATTEMPT AT WATER BUDGET CLOSURE

14. Major FWI Challenges Integration across Projects Build toward Systems Synthesis –Assemble “the Basics”/ Test for Mutual Consistency –Integrate Process Understanding into a “Unified View” to Address Feedbacks –Local-->Basin-->Regional-->Pan-Arctic Entrain Graduate Students into System Synthesis