1. Turkey in the Orbit of The Western Block – Özal Era Week 1 & 2 Assoc.Prof. Emre İşeri - Yaşar University

2. Structural factors (Traditional inputs of continuity) on TFP Important/sensitive geostrategic position: national security concerns have always been paramount in fp considerations. Security thinking: Shaped by the historical experiences of foreign intervention and economic dependency. An identity crisis: Laicism vs.Islam, Turkisness vs.Ethnicity Self-desire to become an economically developed country The legality of its actions in the international arena International image

3. THE GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF TFP 1) Maintenance of the Status-Quo (Preserving Existing Frontiers and Balance) 2) Westernism or Modernization

4. The MILITARY,POLITICAL, and ECONOMIC BACKGROUND of TFP 1) Strategic Medium Power (SMP) 2) The Security Factor of FP 3) The Political Economy of FP

5. 4 Different Periods in TFP The inter-war period : Western in its inclination but guarding against any intimation to its independence, either economically or militarily. Relilable/Friendly nation ; [relative autonomy] 1945-60 period: Dominated by total Western dependence. 1960-70 period: Disillusionment with the West, late detente with Eastern bloc and rapprochement efforts with the Third World; [relative autonomy] 1970-1980 period: A pattern of alienation from the West encouraged; efforts to come back to the international arena ; [relative autonomy]

6. Détente Period ( 1969-1979) Between the late 1960s and the late 1970s, there was a thawing of the ongoing Cold War. This détente took several forms, including increased discussion on arms control (i.e.NPT, SALTI-II). Although the decade began with vast improvements, by the end of the decade events had brought them back to the brink of confrontation (i.e.Soviet invasion of Afganistan).

10. The Brzezinski-Wohlstetter Doctrine [later the Reagan Corrolary] was suggesting that ‘the Green Belt Project’ [or crescent] and a ‘Rapid Deployment Force’ [later CENTOM] should come into agenda in order to solve the Persian Gulf Crisis and establish a peaceful situation in that region. This ‘Green Belt Project’ would cover a wide area stretching from Turkey to Pakistan. In this context, geopolitical importance of Turkey has significantly raised up under the conditions of the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, the Muslim Revolution in Tehran, and the Iran-Iraq War. (İşyar,2005)

13. Donald Rumsfeld -Reagan's Envoy- provided Iraq with chemical & biological weapons ( October,1983)

14. The Second Cold-War (1980s) The “Reagan Doctrine” was the policy of supporting anti- Communist insurgents/proxy armies around world including Afghanistan, Nicaragua, etc. The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), also known as Star Wars, to develop a sophisticated anti- ballistic missile system in order to prevent missile attacks from other countries, specifically the Soviet Union; “contravening” the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT). (coldwar.org)

17. Towards the End of the Cold War The change began when Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in the Soviet Union in 1985. Changes in the state bureaucracy and in the Communist party by restructuring the economy’s production and distribution system (perestroika) and the policy of openness (glasnost). These reforms contributed to the breakup of the centralized structure of the USSR. The collapse of the Berlin Wall was the culminating point of the revolutionary changes sweeping East Central Europe in 1989. American long-term policies before the fall of communism, were containing Soviet expansion while encouraging democratic reform in Central and Eastern Europe through scientific and cultural exchanges and the information policy (e.g., Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty).

21. The Domestic Environment/Dynamics

25. The Turkish constitution [of 1982] tasks the state with providing religious services via the Directorate of Religious Affairs and with providing moral education. State involvement in religious services and education has increased over time with the policies of centre-right governments and of the military regime in 1980 – 83. The latter promoted Islam as an antidote to communism and the politicisation of young people, echoing the Brzezinski doctrine of establishing a ‘green crescent’ surrounding the USSR’s southern belly (M.Somer, 2007:1276).

27. The Conduct of Foreign Policy-1 Turkey of 1980s was clearly dominated by a tendency to "change", sometimes intentionally sometimes with outside pressures, the every aspect of the country from its economic and political structures to peoples‘ identities and believes. Among all the intention and actual preference for change in other aspects, country's decision makers nevertheless tried to preserve fundamental parameters of Turkey's foreign policy during the period under consideration. (M.Aydın,2005,36)

28. Turkey in the Western (American) Orbit Again ! -Similar to the Menderes FP, it was active, but also highly risky and very much dependent on the US. Would be surprising if Turkey had conducted a relatively autonomous FP: 1)Internationally isolated 2)Probable strong domestic opposition – particularly leftists – had been neutralized 3)Economic depedendence

30. The reasons for formation and continuity of the Turkish-American military alliance were also valid in the 1980s. Turkish leaders remained keen to continue the alliance because they saw it as a warranty of Turkish security against the Soviet Union and other possible threats, as a source of military and economic assistance and as a guarantee for westernising Turkey and making her a part of the Western world. Turkey's strategic importance for U.S. interests in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey's contribution to NATO and the desire to keep Turkey within the Western camp so as not to lose prestige vis-a-vis the Soviet bloc were the main reasons for the Americans to maintain their alliance with Turkey (Uslu,1997:16).

31. Rlts with the US/NATO : Affected Turkey in 2 ways Foreign Policy: Developing its relations with ‘moderate’ Arab countries Domestic politics: -Economically, a structural transformation to become integrated with the global capitalist system -Politically, the repressive 12 September regime & the Turkish-Islamic Sythesis

32. Rlts with the US/NATO -The Roger Plan (1980): Green light to Greece’s return to NATO’s military wing -Greece/Cyprus(KKTC))/Aegean questions -The Defense and Economic Cooperation (DECA) -The Question of the Armenian Bills -The Kurdish Question -Economic relations -NATO’s changing strategies

33. ‘The impact of the military coup in Turkey on Turkish- Greek relations was disclosed when Greece returned to the NATO military structure. On 20 October 1980 Turkey lifted the veto on Greece’s return to the NATO military structure within the Rogers Plan. Despite this, Andreas Papandreou’s perception of Turkey as the main source of threat and his refraining from dialogue avoided progress in the negotiations, which had started before the 1980s. Relations were strained because the pressures on the Western Thrace Turkish minority were increased, and tensions spilled over to the Aegean as there was an attempt to include Lemnos Island, previously militarized, in NATO defense plans. Bilateral relations were strained once Greece declared that the 1976 Bern Agreement was invalid and that Greece would drill for oil outside Greek territorial waters in the Northern Aegean.’ ( Aksu,2010:210).

35. Turkish complaints on the DECA (Uslu,1997:15) (a) The United States had unfairly observed a 7:10 ratio in determining aid to Greece and Turkey. (b) American aid to Turkey had been linked to the Cyprus question, Turkey's human rights record and the claim that the Ottoman Empire massacred the Armenians at the beginning of this century. (c) The discussion of these matters by Congress during aid bill negotiations had alienated Turkish public opinion. (d) Though the DECA included economic cooperation, the United States had not provided suitable trade conditions especially to Turkish textiles.

39. Rlts with the European Communities Following the multiparty elections in 1983, the relations, which had come to a virtual freeze following the military intervention of 12 September 1980 in Turkey, began returning to normality. In the light of these positive developments, Turkey applied for full membership in 1987. Although it did not attain its basic objective, Turkey's application revived Turkey-EC relations. (abgs).

40. Rlts with the USSR At a time when political relations were stagnant, economic relations went on without interruption (i.e.natural gas deal, Turkish contractors in the Soviet market) mainly due to ‘new thinking’. The foundations of Turkey’s developing economic relations with Russia. Despite the Turkish public’s negative reactions to the Red Army’s intervention in Azerbaijan in Jan.1990, it did not cause any lasting damage to bilateral rlts at the offical level. The Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighbourliness, and Corportation (March 1991).

41. Rlts with the Middle East Soft-Balancing of Turkey-the Gulf States against Iran. Developing relations with OIC (i.e.presidential level attendance to the 4th summit in Oct.1984, comitte meeting in Istanbul). The Palestine Question: Condemned Israeli operations in Lebanon, recognized the Palestine state under PLO). Neutrality in the Iraq-Iran war & power vacuum in the northern Iraq The Kurdish question – Syria & Iraq Kurdish refugess (The Halabja Massacre).

45. Turkey’s concen with the Syrian support

47. The main differences with respect to the sharing of the Euphrates & Tigris 1)Turkey described them as cross-rivers, while Iraq and Syria described them as international rivers (shared resources). 2) Turkey held the view that allocation should be based on equity, while Iraq & Syria defended the principle of sharing. 3)Due its sovereignty over the rivers, Turkey is against tripartite agreement.

50. Main criticisms on Özal’s FP 1)The rapid (neo)liberalization, without sound regulatory mechanisms rendered Turkey heavily dependent and indirectly weakened its fp. 2)Naive belief on intensified trade relations (i.e.peace pipeline) to cure FP disputes (i.e. Greece, Syria, Israel etc.) 3)Bypassing bureacratic establishments in his personal fp of conduct. 4)Traces of Islamism in an unseen level before in the Republican period