1. ESA Climate Change Initiative Olivier Arino Santa Rosa, 02/06/2009

2. Climate Change Initiative Rationale

3. Two climate action paths CEOS IP for GEOSS in 2007GEOSS 10-year plan in 2005 CEOS response 2006GCOS-107 in 2006GCOS-92 in 2004GCOS-82 in 2003

4. ECV feedback loops Re-processing ex archive (e.g. calibration) ECV generation (e.g. validation & bias) ECV assimilation & assessment Education & Awareness 6 year programme for 2 cycles FEEDBACK LOOP: Long Term Archiving Programmes Multi-mission infrastructure International Climate Programmes EC & MS R&D Programmes IPCC Process, UNFCCC INPUT FROM OUTPUT TO “Deliver” “Show” “Gather” “Exploit”

5. International Coordination UNFCCC which coordinates the interests and decisions of its Parties on Climate Policy, GCOS which represents the scientific and technical requirements of the Global Climate Observing System on behalf of UNFCCC, CEOS which serves as a focal point for Earth Observation related activities of Space Agencies, Individual Partner Space Agencies with whom ESA cooperates bilaterally, International Climate Research Programmes, which represent the collective interests and priorities of the worldwide climate research, EC and National Research Programmes which establish research priorities and provide resources for climate research community within Europe.

6. (from K. Trenberth: Observational needs for climate prediction and adaptation, WMO Bulletin 57(1), January 2008) the big picture… Earth Explorers ENVISAT/ERS National Missions Meteo Missions (EUMETSAT) GMES Sentinels

7. Objectives To realize the full potential of the long-term global Earth Observation archives that ESA together with its Member states have established over the last thirty years, as a significant and timely contribution to the ECV databases required by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Implement all steps necessary for the systematic generation and regular updating of the relevant ECVs, A coherent and continuous suite of actions fully coordinated with on- going international efforts in the climate change community (eg. WCRP, IGBP, SCOPE, etc) Ensure full capital is derived from on-going & planned ESA missions for climate purposes, Focus on 21 ECVs (ESA missions :18 primary, 3 secondary)

8. Programmatic Context CCI New element of an existing ESA programme (Earthwatch) For generation and assessment of ECVs Duration 6 years (2009 – 2014) : Budget 75 Meuro Other complementary programmes EOEP ; Earthnet ; GMES For data archiving, retrieval, re-processing (L1-B), distribution Related activity in preparation ” Long Term Data Preservation ” - ESA programme proposal => 2011

9. critical objectives, scientific challenges, major undertakings, key milestones of international climate research programmes potential impact & relative importance for climate research & modelling programmes, of the satellite-based ECV data mechanisms by which the feedback loops necessary to achieve GCOS objectives can be implemented & improved via CCI products & FCDRs mechanisms by which this programme can further enhance interactions between EO data communities & climate research communities how to facilitate use of the programme results within IPCC process ensuring the scientific integrity of climate-related information for general public & decision makers Advice from Climate Science Community (CSAB)

10. ESA Project Plan Climate Change Initiative Project Plan

11. ESA Programme interactions ESA Climate Change Initiative EO Archives Reprocessing ECV Generation & Assessment 1 23 4 5 Activities Raw EO Data L1B/2 ECVs Earthnet (TPM) EOEP (ERS/ENVISAT`/Explorers) GMES (Sentinels) LTDP

12. Programme Structure No ‘ big-bang’, progressive build-up of activities, Extensive Scientific user consultation (EO science & climate modelling communities) at start of programme (Yrs 1-2), Major Systems development to be built up during the middle years of the programme (Yrs 3-5), Systematic Trends assessment & data assimilation will build later in the programme (Yrs 3-6), Activities to be conducted in parallel, supported by continuous Data archiving / retrieval / re-processing.

13. Overall Schedule

14. Programmes: implementation & management All ESA programmes - are implemented via - contracts with industry and research organizations in ESA states Contracts are awarded via open competitive tender - geo-return targets apply An ESA team manages the programme - Statements of work - technical specifications - procurements - acceptance of deliverables - monitoring progress - reporting to member states Successful industry & research teams execute the work

15. User communities feedback ECMWF MPI Hadley Centre Rossby Centre … Major climate modelling centres Specialized “EO data communities” ECV 1 ECV 2 ECV 3 Specialized climate research groups

16. - Systematically track changes in climate system & forcings e.g. trends in ECVs - Assess consistency across related ECVs e.g. sea-level, ice melting, SST - Analyse global data products e.g. re-analysis data sets - Provide assessment feedback e.g. error analyses, anomalies, inconsistencies - Test sensitivity of models to new data e.g. Observing System Experiments - Confront model output with observations e.g. to validate model simulation - Assimilate data into models to constrain simulations Trends assessment and Data assimilation

17. We are talking to the climate change user community SST ECV ESA Europe World 199120152009199520022012 2005- NRT only MEDSPIRATION Duration 2000 Time series AATSR, AVHRR, SEVIRI, AMSRE, TMI Projects Data Users

18. Requirement policy and advise on the production of the sst ecv ESA needs Requirements Advices What form does SST ECV take Coordination with NOAA global re analysis initiative Coordination with EC myOcean Algorithm issues -Cloud clearing improvement -Wind and Aerosol information improvement -Retrieval improvement -Diurnal warming -Skin-bulk perpetual story -SST at sea ice edge -Link to fluxes -Link to Ocean circulation -Uncertainties estimates -Multi sensor data consistency approach (e.g micro wave/IR sensor) -Merge/Analysis/Single streams -ATSR or other as reference calibration

19. By 30 September 2009 -Form of SST -High level product definition guidelines -Sketch of ATBD -Sketch of Data use (e.g trend or/and climate assimilation/application paths) Along the project development: reporting and feedbacks -GHRSST science team invited to participate to major reviews -GHRSST science team invited to review critical documents ESA wishes GHRSST Guidance

20. EOEP-3 The 3-years extension requests a modification of the Envisat orbital parameters in 2010 as the on-board hydrazine will be almost completely consumed by 2010. The Envisat 3-years extension beyond 2010 is since last week funded. 2008200920102011201220132014 Envisat New orbital parameters approved mission 3-years extension ENVISAT lifetime and operations extension The new orbital parameters allow: 1.to keep current nominal mission until 2010, 2.to extend the mission beyond 2010, 3.to allow operations of all instruments with small or no degradation of their measurements, and minor impact on data quality, excepted for InSAR 4.to commit with the satellite disposal rules. Altitude change: -17.4 km Repeat cycle: 30 days / 431 orbits Orbit control: altitude only, inclination drift Mean Local Solar Time variation: +/- 10 min.

21. Sentinel-1a Launch end 2011 Sentinel-1b Sentinel-3a Launch early 2013 Sentinel-3b Sentinel-5 ? Sentinel-4 ? MetOp 2008200920102011201220132014 Risk of data gap & Need of back- up ASAR Envisat MERIS AATSR Altimetry GOMOS MIPAS SCIAMACHY SAR ERS-2 GOME ATSR Altimetry Scatt ENVISAT lifetime and operations extension

22. THANK YOU Olivier Arino ESA Climate Change Initiative olivier.arino@esa.int http://www.esa.int For more Information http://www.esa.int