1. An ESS Based Super Beam for Lepton CP violation discovery arXiv:1309.7022v2 [hep-ex] 14 Oct 2013 Tord Ekelof, Uppsala Univerisity of behalf of the ESSνSB Collaboration 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 1 1477

2. The ESS 2 GeV proton linac as proton driver for a neutrino Super Beam 1.6x10 16 protons on target/second* which is two orders of magnitude more than any other planned proton driver for a neutrino beam T2HK – JPARK to HyperKamiokande 30 GeV, 0.75 MW -> 1.6x10 14 protons on target/second LBNE – FNAL to Sanford Lab 60-120 GeV, 0.7 MW –> 1.1x10 14 protons on target/second First beams 2019 Full linac power installed 2022 * = Power [W]/(Energy [eV]x1.6x10 -19 ) 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 2 The European Spallation Source (ESS), which is being built in Lund, Sweden, will have a 2 GeV 5 MW (alternatively 2.5 GeV 5MW) superconduction linac to produce

3. Which is the optimal base line for the ESS SuperBeam for CP violation discovery? 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 3 Full GLoBES simulations by E. Fernandez - The fraction of the full δ CP range 0 o -360 o within which CP violation can be discovered as function of the baseline length in km for proton linac energies 2, 2.5 and GeV. - The lower (upper) curves are for CP violation discovery at 5σ (3σ ) significance. Maximum CPV sensitivity at the 2 nd oscillation maximum Znkgruvan Garpenberg 1 st osc. max. 2 nd osc. Max.

4. Several mines located at the second oscillation maximum distance from ESS/Lund available (not so for LBNE and HyperK) 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 4

5. With the newly measured high value of ca 0.1 for sin 2 2θ 13 the CP angle sensitivity is significantly higher at the second ν μ → ν e oscillation maximum than at the first. With low energy neutrinos the neutrino detector can be placed at the second oscillation maximum. All other earlier planned experiments have higher neutrino energy and their detector at the first oscillations maximum 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 5 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Number of unosillated detected events ν μ →ν e oscillation probability 1 st osc max2 nd osc max Neutrino energy Proton energyBase line CP violation angle Enrique Fernandez Maximum CP violation energy spectrum sensitivity at the 2 nd oscillation maximum

6. Maximum CP violation neutrino-antineutrino sensitivity at the 2 nd oscillation maximum From Stephen Parke/ FNAL; “Neutrinos: Theory and Phenomenology” arXiv:1310.5992v1 [hep-ph] 22 Oct2013, page 12; “At the first oscillation maximum (OM), as is in the running experiments, T2K and NOνA and possible future experiments HyperK and LBNE experiments, the vacuum asymmetry is given by A ~ 0.30 *sin δ at Δ 31 =π/2 which implies that P(ν ̅ μ →ν ̅ e ) is between 1/2 and 2 times P(ν μ →ν e ). Whereas at the second oscillation maximum, the vacuum asymmetry is A ~ 0.75 *sin δ at Δ 31 =3π/2 which implies that P(ν ̅ μ →ν ̅ e ) is between 1/7 and 7 times P(ν μ →ν e ). So that experiments at the second oscillation maximum, like ESSnuSB [15], have a significantly larger divergence between the neutrino and anti-neutrino channels.” 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 6

7. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 7 7 Low background because of low ν energy Number of ν μ ->ν e oscillation signal (blue) and background (other colors) events for electron neutrinos and anti-neutrinos for 2+8 GeV run as detected in a MEMPHYS type detector after 2 years of neutrino running (left) plus 8 years of antineutrino running (right) with a baseline length of 540 km and 2.5 GeV protons neutrinos anti-neutrinos

8. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 8 8 A “Hyperkamiokande” type detector to study; Neutrinos from accelerators (Super Beam) but also Supernovae neutrinos (burst + "relics"), Solar Neutrinos, Atmospheric neutrinos, Geoneutrinos Proton decay up to ~10 35 years life time. All these other measurements require the detector to be shielded by ~1000 m rock from cosmic ray muons The MEMPHYS detector of the FP7 LAGUNA project; Fiducial mass: 440 kt in 3 cylinders 65x65 m Readout: 3x81k 12” PMTs, 30% geom. cover. Order of magnitude cost : 700 MEuro The MEMPHYS detector of the FP7 LAGUNA project; Fiducial mass: 440 kt in 3 cylinders 65x65 m Readout: 3x81k 12” PMTs, 30% geom. cover. Order of magnitude cost : 700 MEuro To measure low energy neutrinos a large water Cherenkov detector is required (low neutrino cross section) and sufficient (few inelastic events)

9. Proposal; By rising the linac 2.86-ms-pulse frequency from 14 Hz, i.e. 4.0 % duty cycle, to 28 Hz, i.e. 8.0% duty cycle, thereby doubling the average RF power from 5MW to 10 MW without increasing the instantaneous power of 125 MW. This will allow for that 14 linac pulses per second be used for neutron physics and 14 pulses for neutrino physics. For this it will be necessary to double the output power from the linac RF sources and the linac cooling capacity. Modulators, amplifiers and power transfer equipment should be designed for the doubled average power of the linac already during the build-up phase. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 9 How can the ESS linac be used as a proton driver for a neutrino Super Beam, maintaining spallation neutron production unchanged?

10. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 10 Test of operation a RF power source at 28 Hz A prototype 352 MHz spoke cavity for the ESS linac will be tested in the FREIA Laboratory at Uppsala University already as from July 2014 in a cryostat at 14 Hz pulse frequency and at the full instantaneous power required for ESS proton acceleration, which is 350 kW. For the generation of the 352 MHz power both a tetrode amplifier and a solid state amplifier will be tried out. As part of the EUROSB project, the amplifier pulse frequency will be raised to 28 Hz, thus doubling the average power to the cavity. The influence of this higher power on the operation of the cavity and on the capacity to cool the cavity itself and, in particular, its RF coupler will be studied. ESS Spoke 352 MHz Accelerating Cavity Lay-out of the 352 MHz RF source, wave guides and test cryostat in the FREIA hall

11. A challenging part of this project is the target to be hit by the 5 MW proton beam to produce the pions needed for the neutrino beam production. The use of classical monolithic solid targets is impossible for this application because of the absence of efficient cooling. One design which is under investigation is a packed bed of titanium spheres cooled with cold helium gas. It needs to be investigated whether the pulsed beam will generate vibrations in the spheres, which could be transmitted to the packed bed container and beam windows and cause degradation of the spheres where they are in contact with each other. Tests of such a target are planned using the HiRadMat high intensity proton irradiation facility at CERN. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 11 The Target

12. A key element for generating a neutrino beam is the hadron collector, also called neutrino horn, used to focus in the forward direction the charged pions produced in the proton-target collisions 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 12 A pulsed power supply able of providing the very high current (~350 kA) to be circulated inside the horn at the required pulse rate has not been produced so far and thus needs to be prototyped. The Neutrino Horn Furthermore, the time duration of this high current pulse can only be of a few microsecond to not overheat the horn. This implies that the ESS pulse length of ca 3 milliseconds has to be shortened by ca 2000 times using a storage ring in which the whole 3 ms long pulse is accumulated by multi(2000)-turn injection and then ejected in one turn. To obtain a 1.5 μs pulse the ring should have a 450 m circumference.

13. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 13 Target Station General Layout 13 M. Dracos Split Proton Beam Neutrino Beam Direction Collimators Horns and Targets Decay Volume (He, 25 m) Beam Dump Horn Support Module Shield Blocks

14. During the 3 ms long period of injection in the storage ring the large stored positive charge will repel the successively arriving negatively positive protons. To alleviate this problem one must inject H - ions and strip off the electrons from the H - ions at the moment when they enter the stored circulating beam. The proposed plan for simultaneous H - acceleration is to have one 3 ms long 50 mA H - pulse accelerated in the 70 ms long gap between to proton (H + ) pulses. The large stored charge also causes space charge problems and beam blow-up in the compressor storage ring, which can be alleviated by dividing up the ring on four rings. This is a trick already used for the CERN PS Booster ring. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 14 H - accleration, injection and compression The 4 rings of the CERN PS Booster

15. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 15 There exist sources that could give the required performance for ESSνSB Courtesy: J. Lettry H - source Stripping

16. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 16 Lay-out of ESS neutrino beam 16 Accumulator Target/horn station Neutrino beam ESS linac Neutron spallation target H-H- p

17. ESS overall schedule 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 17

18. CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 18 Garpenberg Mine Distance from ESS Lund 540 km Depth 1232 m Truck access tunnels Two ore hoist shafts A new ore hoist schaft is planned to be ready i 1 year, leaving the two existing shafts free for other uses S D n / 20 12 Gru vsjö scha ktet N yt t sc ha kt 2013-11-26 Granite drill cores

19. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 19 Zinkgruvan mine Distance from ESS Lund 360 km Depth 1200 m Access tunnel 15 km Ore hoist shaft 7m/s 20 tons Personnel hoist shaft 2 km long tunnel planned for new ore volume – 3 Memphys cavities could be built adjacent to this tunnel. Extension of access tunnel and second hoist shaft needed. New ore volume

20. Currently we are investigating the possibilities offered by the North shaft and decline of the Garpenberg mine The construction of this shaft and decline started in the 1960s. The current shaft depth of 830 m was reached in 1994 and the depth of the decline (=descending truck tunnel, cross section 5mx6m), which was 1000 m in 1998, has later been extended to 1230 m depth. In 2012 300 000 tons (=110 000 m 3 ) of ore was transported with trucks on the decline up to the shaft hoist at 830 m depth and hoisted up to the ground level so 550 000 m 3 can be hoised in 5 years. The hoist, shaft and head-frame (=hoist surface tower) will no longer be used for mining as from end of 2014. To preserve them will require their maintenance. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 20

21. The dominating limestone and dolomite rock in the ca 2 km broad and 10 km long syncline (~area) of the mine is not suitable for the excavation of the very large MEMPHYS/HyperK type of detector caverns. However, the syncline is surrounded by granite which is of sufficient strength to allow the safe construction of large caverns. Bore holes have been made out to the granite zone and recent rock strength measurements of 18 granite bore core samples collected (see photographs below ) have yielded a mean value of the uniaxial compressive strength of 206 MPa (cf. 232 Mpa at Pyhäsalmi mine). The rock stress at 880 m depth has previously been measured. The main component of the stress is horizontal and directed perpendicularly to the syncline, i.e. to the north-west. The rock stress magnitude is about 40 MPa (cf. 52 MPa at Pyhäsalmi mine at 900 m) which is a little less than twice the vertical stress component that is induced by the gravitation. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 21

22. Performance calculations for ESSνSB based on GLoBUS simulations 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 22 The systematic errors used are those given in the Snowmass reference; Systematic uncertainties in long-baseline neutrino oscillations for large θ 13 Pilar ColomaPilar Coloma, Patrick Huber, Joachim Kopp, Walter WinterPatrick HuberJoachim KoppWalter Winter arXiv:1209.5973arXiv:1209.5973 [hep-ph] PhysRevD.87.033004PhysRevD.87.033004

23. CPV Discovery Performance for Future SB projects, MH unknown, Snowmass comparison 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 23 IDS-NF Neutrino Factory NuMAX are: 10 kton magnetized LAr detector, Baseline is 1300 km, and the parent muon energy is 5 GeV LBNO100: 100 kt LAr, 0.8 MW, 2300 km Hyper-K: 3+7 years, 0.75 MW, 500 kt WC LBNE-Full 34 kt, 0.72 MW, 5/5 years ~ 250 MW*kt*yrs. LBNE-PX 34 kt, 2.2 MW, 5/5 years ~750 MW*kt*yrs. ESSnuSB, in the figure called EUROSB: 2+8 years, 5 MW, 500 kt WC (2.5 GeV, 360 (upper)/540 km (lower)) 2020 currently running experiments by 2020 Pilar Coloma ESS 2.5 GeV

24. The fraction of all possible true values of δ CP as a function of the 1 σ error in the measurement of δ CP. A CP fraction of 1 implies that this precision will be reached for all possible CP phases, wheras a CP fraction of 0 means that there is only one value of δ CP for which the measurement will have that precision. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 24 Pilar Coloma ESS 2.5 GeV ESSνSB

25. Figure 11 on page 34 in the Snowmass ”Neutrinos” report arXiv:1310.4340v1 [hep-ex] 16 Oct 2013 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 25 ”Figure 11: ……ESSνSB corresponds to the performance of a 500-kt water Cherenkov detector placed at 360 km from the source; see [117]. The beam would be obtained from 2-GeV protons accelerated at the ESS proton linac. Migration matrices fromRefs. [98, 118] have been used for the detector response…”

26. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 26 Coarse cost estimate Unit: Billion Euro (10 9 Euro) Upgrading the ESS accelerator0.1 Accumulator ring0.2 (* Target station0.2 Detector 0.7 The ESS linac0.6 -------------------------------------------------- Green field project cost1.8 Using the ESS linac -0.6 -------------------------------------------------- ESS neutrino Super beam project 1.2 (* this cost to possibly be shared with the neutron physics community

27. The ESSνSB Authors and Institutions 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 27 E. Baussan, m M. Blennow, l M. Bogomilov, k E. Bouquerel, m J. Cederkall, f P. Christiansen, f P. Coloma, b P. Cupial, e H. Danared,g C. Densham,c M. Dracos, m ; T. Ekelöf, n ; M. Eshraqi, g E. Fernandez Martinez, h G. Gaudiot, m R. Hall-Wilton, g J.-P. Koutchouk, n,d M. Lindroos, g R. Matev, k D. McGinnis, g M. Mezzetto, j R. Miyamoto, g L. Mosca, i T. Ohlsson, l H. Öhman, n F. Osswald, m S. Peggs, g P. Poussot, m R. Ruber, n J.Y. Tang, a R. Tsenov, k G. Vankova-Kirilova, k N. Vassilopoulos, m E. Wildner, d and J. Wurtz. m a Institute of High Energy Physics, CAS, Beijing 100049, China. b Center for Neutrino Physics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA. c STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, OX11 0QX Didcot, UK. d CERN, CH-1211, Geneva 23, Switzerland. e AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland. f Department of Physics, Lund University, Box 118, SE{221 00 Lund, Sweden. g European Spallation Source, ESS AB, P.O Box 176, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden. h Dpto. de Fsica Teorica and Instituto de Fsica Teorica UAM/CSIC, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Cantoblanco E-28049 Madrid, Spain. i Laboratoire Souterrain de Modane, F-73500 Modane, France. j JINFN Sezione di Padova, 35131 Padova, Italy. k Department of Atomic physics, St. Kliment Ohridski University of Soa, Soa, Bulgaria. l Department of Theoretical Physics, School of Engineering Sciences, KTH Royal Institute of Tech- nlogy, AlbaNova University Center, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. m IPHC, Universite de Strasbourg, CNRS/IN2P3, F-67037 Strasbourg, France n Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 516, SE-75120 Uppsala, Sweden New collaborators are most welcome to join in!

28. The relation of ESSnuSB to CERN ESSnuSB is a European High Energy Physics experiment and, as such, under CERN Council coordination. In line with this we would like to request an assessment of our proposal by the appropriate CERN Council body. We would welcome experts from CERN’s appropriate experimental committee to evaluate our proposal regarding the physics performance and the feasibility of the neutrino water Cherenkov detector. We foresee the technical feasibility of the ESS accelerator aspects to be evaluated by the ESS Technical Advisory Committee. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 28

29. We request the following support actions by CERN Confirmation of the support currently given by CERN through the 30% part time work by CERN accelerator staff Elena Wildner on the accelerator upgrade and the accumulator ring design required for ESSnuSB. Provision of additional expert support for the ESSnuSB accumulator ring design and simulation study, target test work in the HighRadMat facility and for the underground neutrino-detector rock-engineering design-study. Support via the CERN EU office to the EU Horizon 2020 Design Study application that ESSnuSB intends to submit to EU by September 2014. Creation of a web site under cern.ch for ESSnuSB as a European HEP design study hosted by CERN. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 29

30. An existing framework agreement CERN has since 2011 a framework agreement with Uppsala University signed by the DG and the Vice-Chancellor, respectively, on “Collaboration in the build-up and use of a new Uppsala accelerator test facility “FREIA””. In Article 2.1 of this collaboration agreement it is noted that “the ESS SPL has, in addition to its primary purpose to generate a high flux of neutrons, also a high potential as a future high-flux source of neutrinos and muons". We propose to use this existing framework agreement as an instrument to initialize the cooperation with CERN by signing an agreement addendum that defines certain collaborative ESSnuSB design-study work, the specifics of which are to be discussed with CERN. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 30

31. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 31 CONCLUSION We propose the utilisation of the ESS linac to build a physics competitive and cost effective world leading neutrino Super Beam facility for neutrino CP violation discovery. The technical feasibility of this project is being studied in detail with computer simulations and prototype tests. There is a strong synergy between the use of the ESS linac for the production of spallation neutrons and a low energy neutrino Super Beam. The MEMPHYS type neutrino detector will also enable a rich variety of other measurements involving atmospheric and cosmic neutrinos ESSnuSB is an European High Energy Physics Experiment and, as such, under the coordination of the CERN Council. We ask CERN, as our common European HEP laboratory, to support the design study of this experiment in view of its unique performance.

32. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 32 A discovery of CP violation in the leptonic sector will have strong cosmological implications opening new possibilities to comprehend the matter/anti-matter asymmetry in Universe. Preliminary studies give very promising results compared to other neutrino facility proposals in Europe and elsewhere in the world. arXiv:1309.7022v2 [hep-ex] 14 Oct 2013

33. Back-up slides 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 33

34. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 34 Hyper-Kamiokande Physics Opportunities: Exploring CP Violation with the Upgraded JPARC Beam 34 36 % δ CP coverage55 % δ CP coverage

35. Systematic uncertainties in long-baseline neutrino oscillations for large $θ_{13}$ Pilar Coloma, Patrick Huber, Joachim Kopp, Walter Winter (Submitted on 26 Sep 2012) We study the physics potential of future long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments at large $\theta_{13}$, focusing especially on systematic uncertainties. We discuss superbeams, \bbeams, and neutrino factories, and for the first time compare these experiments on an equal footing with respect to systematic errors. We explicitly simulate near detectors for all experiments, we use the same implementation of systematic uncertainties for all experiments, and we fully correlate the uncertainties among detectors, oscillation channels, and beam polarizations as appropriate. As our primary performance indicator, we use the achievable precision in the measurement of the CP violating phase $\deltacp$. We find that a neutrino factory is the only instrument that can measure $\deltacp$ with a precision similar to that of its quark sector counterpart. All neutrino beams operating at peak energies $\gtrsim 2$ GeV are quite robust with respect to systematic uncertainties, whereas especially \bbeams and \thk suffer from large cross section uncertainties in the quasi-elastic regime, combined with their inability to measure the appearance signal cross sections at the near detector. A noteworthy exception is the combination of a $\gamma=100$ \bbeam with an \spl-based superbeam, in which all relevant cross sections can be measured in a self-consistent way. This provides a performance, second only to the neutrino factory. For other superbeam experiments such as \lbno and the setups studied in the context of the \lbne reconfiguration effort, statistics turns out to be the bottleneck. In almost all cases, the near detector is not critical to control systematics since the combined fit of appearance and disappearance data already constrains the impact of systematics to be small provided that the three active flavor oscillation framework is valid. Pilar ColomaPatrick HuberJoachim KoppWalter Winter 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 35

36. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 36 Proposal detector dist. power proton years acronym (km) vol. (kt)/type (km) (MW) energy (GeV) ν/ν¯ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ESSνSB-360 500/WC 360 5 2.0 2/8 ESSνSB-540 500/WC 560 5 2.0 2/8 Hyper-K 560/WC 295 1.66 30 1.3/3.5 LBNE-Full 34/LAr 1290 0.72 120 5/5 LBNE-PX 34/LAr 1290 2.2 120 5/5 LBNO-100 100/LAr 2300 2.2 50 5/5 IDS-NF 100/LAr 2000 4 10 (for muons) 5/5 NuMAX 10/LAr (magn.) 1300 1 5 (for muons) 5/5 Systematic uncertainties in long-baseline neutrino oscillations for large θ 13 Pilar ColomaPilar Coloma, Patrick Huber, Joachim Kopp, Walter WinterPatrick HuberJoachim KoppWalter Winter arXiv:1209.5973arXiv:1209.5973 [hep-ph] PhysRevD.87.033004PhysRevD.87.033004 Comparison of the performance between proposed Future Long Base Line Neutrino Super Beam Experiments

37. 2.5 GeV proton energy 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 37 540 km base line Garpenberg mine 360 km base line Zinkgruvan mine

38. 2.0 GeV proton energy 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 38 540 km base line Garpenberg mine 360 km base line Zinkgruvan mine

39. The signifiance in terms of number of standard deviations with which CP violation could be discovered for δ CP -values from -180 to +180 degrees for 2.0 GeV protons 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 39

40. The signicance in terms of number of standard deviations with which CP violationcan be discovered as function of the fraction of the full δ CP range for different proton energies and base lines 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 40

41. The resolution with which the δ CP angle can be measured as function of δ CP for different energies and base lines 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 41

42. Mass hierarchy determination for different base lines 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 42 The significance in mass hierarchy determination as function of δ CP for different base line lengths (Enrique Fernandez) Measurements with atmospheric neutrinos will further improve this performance

43. CPV Discovery Performance for Future SB projects, MH unknown, Snowmass comparison 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 43 IDS-NF Neutrino Factory NuMAX are: 10 kton magnetized LAr detector, Baseline is 1300 km, and the parent muon energy is 5 GeV LBNO100: 100 kt LAr, 0.8 MW, 2300 km Hyper-K: 3+7 years, 0.75 MW, 500 kt WC LBNE-Full 34 kt, 0.72 MW, 5/5 years ~ 250 MW*kt*yrs. LBNE-PX 34 kt, 2.2 MW, 5/5 years ~750 MW*kt*yrs. EUROSB: 2+8 years, 5 MW, 500 kt WC (2.0 GeV, 360 (upper)/540 km (lower)) 2020 currently running experiments by 2020 Pilar Coloma ESS 2.0 GeV

44. Effect of systematic errors, MH unknown 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 44 360 km 2 GeV Points – no systematic errors Blue line –ESSνSB group estimated systematic errors (5% for signal and 10% for background) Red line – Snowmass estimated systematic errors for ESSνSB for comparison of performance of different experiments Ref P. Coloma et al. Phys.Rev. D87.033004

45. The fraction of all possible true values of δ CP as a function of the 1 σ error in the measurement of δ CP. A CP fraction of 1 implies that this precision will be reached for all possible CP phases, wheras a CP fraction of 0 means that there is only one value of δ CP for which the measurement will have that precision. 2013-11-26 CERN Neutrino Meeting Tord Ekelöf Uppsala University 45 Pilar Coloma ESS 2.0 GeV