1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood 734-647-3530 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2010 March 25, 2010

2. Class News Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10AOSS 480 001 W10 On Line: 2008 Class2008 Class –Reference list from courseReference list from course Rood Blog Data Base

3. Events Tonight: 6:30 PM, Room 2024 Dana Building. –Climate Action: Beyond Copenhagen –Panel Discussion with U-M Student Delegation to COP in Copenhagen. Plus a couple of faculty, and scheduled MI Rep Rebekah Warren. Jim Hansen Global Climate Change What Must We Do Now? –April 6, 2010 –Blau Auditorium, Ross School of Business, –Time: 4:00 - 5:30, Reception following

4. Readings on Local Servers Assigned –Jasanoff: The Fifth Branch (Chapter 1)Jasanoff: The Fifth Branch (Chapter 1) –Pew: State-based Initiatives (2006)Pew: State-based Initiatives (2006) –Pew: State-based Initiatives (Update, 2007)Pew: State-based Initiatives (Update, 2007) Of Interest –Rabe: Congressional Testimony (2007)Rabe: Congressional Testimony (2007) –Pew: Beyond KyotoPew: Beyond Kyoto Foundational References –UNFCCC: Text of ConventionUNFCCC: Text of Convention –Kyoto Protocol: TextKyoto Protocol: Text –Kyoto Protocol: Introduction and SummaryKyoto Protocol: Introduction and Summary

5. Next Readings on Local Servers

6. Summary Points: Science Theory / Empirical Evidence CO 2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Correlated Observations CO 2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO 2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Observations CO 2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets  Concept of “Forcing” Prediction Earth Will Warm Validation Consequences Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change

7. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO 2 we put in the atmosphere. Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO 2 It’s not an either / or argument.

8. Another view of U.S. Energy TWO MAJOR SOURCES TWO MAJOR USES

9. Basic constraint on carbon policy

10. Production In the near term, by far the most effective way we have to reduce production of carbon dioxide is efficiency. –And this makes economic sense.

11. McKinsey 2007: Large

12. Population-Energy Consumption Climate Change POPULATION ENERGY CONSUMPTION GREEN HOUSE GAS INCREASE SURFACE WARMING

13. Population-Energy Consumption Climate Change POPULATION ENERGY CONSUMPTION GREEN HOUSE GAS INCREASE SURFACE WARMING LOCAL DECISIONS GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES

14. Oil Consumption - Production CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION Energy Information Administration

15. ENERGY VERSUS HUNGER RICH VERSUS POOR Amigos de la Tierra Int. y Acción Ecológica 2002. Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos ENERGY HUNGER

16. Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty Knowledge from Predictions Motivates, Initiates Response Responses

17. Policy Response Let’s think about policy for a moment.

18. Policy A natural reaction to this situation is to look to government, to the development of policy to address the problems that we are faced with.

19. Policy From Discussion in First Lectures What do we look to policy to accomplish? –Represent the desires of the people –Tragedy of Commons: Collective rationality leads to irrationality –Change how money is used in society –Improves lives as a whole (Infrastructure?) –Solve problems –Organize approaches to problems –Manage short-term vs long-term –Policy and market – market failures –Drive technology innovation –Technology-economy interface

20. Policy What do we look to policy to accomplish? –Internalizing class discussion Stimulate technology: Provide incentives or disincentives for behavior. (Often through financial or market forces.) Set regulations: Put bounds on some type of behavior, with penalties if the bounds are exceeded. Make internal some sort of procedure or behavior or cost that is currently external. –A more abstract point of view Represents collective values of society: what is acceptable and what is not. Interface with the law? Provides the constraints and limits, the checks and balances in which we run our economy.

21. Policy-climate science interface (1) It is sensible to look at governance and policy to address climate change –It’s a “greater good” problem –It relates to natural resources and waste from the use of natural resources –It impacts economic and national security –There is precedence Given the relation to energy and wealth it is natural to expect there will not to be a “one size fits all solution” for climate change. –One size fits all is one of the most common traps that “managers” and “leaders” fall into. Feeds polarization and rhetoric

22. Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty Knowledge from Predictions Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted Motivates policy Policy 1)Uncertainty always exists 2)New uncertainties will be revealed 3)Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging

23. Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty Knowledge from Predictions Motivates policy Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted Policy 1)Uncertainty always exists 2)New uncertainties will be revealed 3)Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging What we are doing now is, largely, viewed as successful. We are reluctant to give up that which is successful. We are afraid that we will suffer loss.

24. A Premise Climate change problem cannot be solved in isolation. Requires integration with all elements of society. –Requires identification of reasons to motivate us to take action Apparent benefit Excess Risk

25. A Conclusion about Policy Policy cannot stand alone as our response to climate change. –Every person and every group of people will be impacted by climate change, and therefore, by policy to address climate change. In fact, some feel that they are more impacted by policy than by climate change. Policy has to not only be effective, but it has to include and balance the interests of all who have a stake. Policy represents our values – our societal belief system. –It sets the bounds on behavior to benefit society

26. The Uncertainty Fallacy That the systematic reduction of scientific uncertainty will lead to development of policy is a fallacy. –Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging.

27. Motivators for Policy More is needed than scientific knowledge to motivate the development of policy. –A policy accelerator or catalyst is needed to promote convergence of policy. Apparent benefit Excess risk –What are important sources of benefit and risk? What are the policy accelerators?

28. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO 2 we put in the atmosphere. Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO 2 It’s not an either / or argument.

29. Some definitions Mitigation: The notion of limiting or controlling emissions of greenhouse gases so that the total accumulation is limited. Adaptation: The notion of making changes in the way we do things to adapt to changes in climate. Resilience: The ability to adapt. Geo-engineering: The notion that we can manage the balance of total energy of the atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land to yield a stable climate in the presence of changing greenhouse gases.

30. Thinking about ADAPTATION Adaptation: What people might do to reduce harm of climate change, or make themselves best able to take advantage of climate change. –Autonomous that people do by themselves –Can be encouraged by public policy Command and control tell you to do it Incentives Subsidies –Can be anticipatory or reactive Adaptation is local; it is self help. Adaptation has short time constants - at least compared to mitigation  Hence people see the need to pay for it. Some amount of autonomous-reactive adaptation will take place. –Moving villages in AlaskaMoving villages in Alaska

31. Thinking about MITIGATION Mitigation: Things we do to reduce greenhouse gases –Reduce emissions –Increase sinks Mitigation is for the global good Mitigation has slow time constants Mitigation is anticipatory policy This is the “second” environmental problem we have faced with a global flavor. –Ozone is the first one. Is this a good model?

32. Some Mitigation-Adaptation considerations Those who are rich and technologically advanced generally favor adaptation; they feel they can handle it –Plus, technology will continue to make fossil fuel cheap, but with great(er) release of CO 2 Those who are poor and less technologically advanced generally advocate mitigation and sharing of adaptation technology Emission scenarios “don’t matter” for the next 30-50 years. There are a lot of arguments, based on economics, that lead towards adaptation –Mitigation always looks expensive, perhaps economically risky, on the time scale of 50 years. Adaptation looks easier because we will know more This will remain true as long as the consequences seem incremental and modest –The Innovators Dilemma, evolution vs revolution?The Innovators Dilemma

33. Responses to the Climate Change Problem Autonomous/ Individual Policy/ Societal Reactive Anticipatory Adaptation Mitigation

34. The previous viewgraphs have introduced “granularity” This is a classic short-term versus long-term problem. –Ethics –Economics –Reaction versus anticipation Similarly, regional versus global Rich and poor Competing approaches –Mitigation versus adaptation –Transportation versus Electrical Generation –This versus that

35. We arrive at levels of granularity TEMPORAL NEAR-TERMLONG-TERM SPATIAL LOCAL GLOBAL WEALTH Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales. Need to introduce spatial scales as well Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change

36. What is short-term and long-term? 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years ENERGY SECURITY ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime,... LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. Election time scales