1. From DeGroot & Schervish

2. Example Occupied Telephone Lines Suppose that a certain business office has five telephone lines and that any number of these lines may be in use at any given time. The telephone lines are observed at regular intervals of 2 minutes and the number of lines that are being used at each time is noted. Let X1 denote the number of lines that are being used when the lines are first observed at the beginning of the period; let X2 denote the number of lines that are being used when they are observed the second time, 2 minutes later; and in general, for n = 1, 2,..., let Xn denote the number of lines that are being used when they are observed for the nth time.

3. Stochastic Process sequence of random variables X1, X2,... is called a stochastic process or random process with discrete time parameter. The first random variable X1 is called the initial state of the process; and for n = 2, 3,..., the random variable Xn is called the state of the process at time n.

4. Stochastic Process (cont.) In the example, the state of the process at any time is the number of lines being used at that time. Therefore, each state must be an integer between 0 and 5.

5. Stochastic Process (cont.) In a stochastic process with a discrete time parameter, the state of the process varies in a random manner from time to time. To describe a complete probability model for a particular process, it is necessary to specify the distribution for the initial state X1 and also to specify for each n = 1, 2,... the conditional distribution of the subsequent state Xn+1 given X1,..., Xn. Pr(Xn+1 = xn+1|X1 = x1, X2 = x2,..., Xn = xn).

6. Markov Chain A stochastic process with discrete time parameter is a Markov chain if, for each time n, the probabilities of all Xj for j >n given X1,..., Xn depend only on Xn and not on the earlier states X1,..., Xn−1. Pr(Xn+1 = xn+1|X1 = x1, X2 = x2,..., Xn= xn) = Pr(Xn+1 = xn+1|Xn = xn). A Markov chain is called finite if there are only finitely many possible states.

7. Example: Shopping for Toothpaste Consider a shopper who chooses between two brands of toothpaste on several occasions. Let Xi = 1 if the shopper chooses brand A on the ith purchase, and let Xi = 2 if the shopper chooses brand B on the ith purchase. Then the sequence of states X1, X2,... is a stochastic process with two possible states at each time. the shopper will choose the same brand as on the previous purchase with probability 1/3 and will switch with probability 2/3.

8. Example: Shopping for Toothpaste Since this happens regardless of purchases that are older than the previous one, we see that this stochastic process is a Markov chain with: Pr(Xn+1 = 1|Xn = 1) = 1/3 Pr(Xn+1 = 2|Xn = 1) = 2/3 Pr(Xn+1 = 1|Xn = 2) = 2/3 Pr(Xn+1 = 2|Xn = 2) = 1/3

9. Transition Distributions/Stationary Transition Distributions Consider a finite Markov chain with k possible states. The conditional distributions of the state at time n + 1 given the state at time n, that is, Pr(Xn+1 = j |Xn = i) for i, j = 1,..., k and n = 1, 2,..., are called the transition distributions of the Markov chain. If the transition distribution is the same for every time n (n = 1, 2,...), then the Markov chain has stationary transition distributions.

10. Stationary Transition Distributions The notation for stationary transition distributions, pij suggests that they could be arranged in a matrix. The transition probabilities for Shopping for Toothpaste example can be arranged into the following matrix:

11. Transition Matrix Consider a finite Markov chain with stationary transition distributions given by pij = Pr(Xn+1 = j |Xn = i) for all n, i, j. The transition matrix of the Markov chain is defined to be the k × k matrix P with elements pij. That is,

12. Transition Matrix (cont.) A transition matrix has several properties that are apparent from its definition. For example, each element is nonnegative because all elements are probabilities. Since each row of a transition matrix is a conditional p.f. for the next state given some value of the current state, we have

13. Stochastic Matrix Square matrix for which all elements are nonnegative and the sum of the elements in each row is 1 is called a stochastic matrix. It is clear that the transition matrix P for every finite Markov chain with stationary transition probabilities must be a stochastic matrix. Conversely, every k × k stochastic matrix can serve as the transition matrix of a finite Markov chain with k possible states and stationary transition distributions.

14. Example Suppose that in the example involving the office with five telephone lines, the numbers of lines being used at times 1, 2,... form a Markov chain with stationary transition distributions. This chain has six possible states 0, 1,..., 5, where i is the state in which exactly i lines are being used at a given time (i = 0, 1,..., 5). Suppose that the transition matrix P is as follows:

15. Example (a) Assuming that all five lines are in use at a certain observation time, we shall determine the probability that exactly four lines will be in use at the next observation time. (b) Assuming that no lines are in use at a certain time, we shall determine the probability that at least one line will be in use at the next observation time.

16. Example A manager usually checks the server at her store every 5 minutes to see whether the server is busy or not. She models the state of the server (1= busy or 2 = not busy) as a Markov chain with two possible states and stationary transition distributions given by the following matrix:

17. Example (cont.) Pr(Xn+2 = 1|Xn = 1) = Pr(Xn+1 = 1, Xn+2 = 1|Xn= 1) + Pr(Xn+1 = 2, Xn+2 = 1|Xn = 1). Pr(Xn+1 = 1, Xn+2 = 1|Xn = 1) = Pr(Xn+1 = 1|Xn= 1) Pr(Xn+2 = 1|Xn+1 = 1) = 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.81. Similarly, Pr(Xn+1 = 2, Xn+2 = 1|Xn = 1) = Pr(Xn+1 = 2|Xn= 1) Pr(Xn+2 = 1|Xn+1 = 2) = 0.1× 0.6 = 0.06. It follows that Pr(Xn+2 = 1|Xn= 1)=0.81+ 0.06= 0.87, and hence Pr(Xn+2 =2|Xn=1) = 1− 0.87 = 0.13. By similar reasoning, if Xn = 2, Pr(Xn+2 = 1|Xn = 2) = 0.6 × 0.9 + 0.4 × 0.6 = 0.78, and Pr(Xn+2 = 2|Xn = 2) = 1− 0.78 = 0.22.

18. The Transition Matrix for Several Steps Consider a general Markov chain with k possible states 1,..., k and the transition matrix P. Assuming that the chain is in state i at a given time n, we shall now determine the probability that the chain will be in state j at time n + 2. In other words, we shall determine the conditional probability of Xn+2 = j given Xn = i. The notation for this probability is p (2) ij.

19. The Transition Matrix for Several Steps (cont.) Let r denote the value of Xn+1:

20. The Transition Matrix for Several Steps (cont.) The value of p (2) ij can be determined in the following manner: If the transition matrix P is squared, that is, if the matrix P 2 = PP is constructed, then the element in the ith row and the jth column of the matrix P 2 will be Therefore, p (2) ij will be the element in the ith row and the jth column of P 2.

21. Multiple Step Transitions Let P be the transition matrix of a finite Markov chain with stationary transition distributions. For each m = 2, 3,..., the mth power P m of the matrix P has in row i and column j the probability p (m) ij that the chain will move from state i to state j in m steps.

22. Example Consider again the transition matrix P given by the example for the Markov chain based on five telephone lines. We shall assume first that i lines are in use at a certain time, and we shall determine the probability that exactly j lines will be in use two time periods later. If we multiply the matrix P by itself, we obtain the following two-step transition matrix:

23. Example i. If two lines are in use at a certain time, then the probability that four lines will be in use two time periods later is.. ii. If three lines are in use at a certain time, then the probability that three lines will again be in use two time periods later is..

24. The Initial Distribution The manager in Example enters the store thinking that the probability is 0.3 that the server will be busy the first time that she checks. Hence, the probability is 0.7 that the server will be not busy. We can represent this distribution by the vector v = (0.3, 0.7) that gives the probabilities of the two states at time 1 in the same order that they appear in the transition matrix.

25. Probability Vector/Initial Distribution A vector consisting of nonnegative numbers that add to 1 is called a probability vector. A probability vector whose coordinates specify the probabilities that a Markov chain will be in each of its states at time 1 is called the initial distribution of the chain or the intial probability vector.

26. Example Consider again the office with five telephone lines and the Markov chain for which the transition matrix P Suppose that at the beginning of the observation process at time n = 1, the probability that no lines will be in use is 0.5, the probability that one line will be in use is 0.3, and the probability that two lines will be in use is 0.2. The initial probability vector is v = (0.5, 0.3, 0.2, 0, 0, 0). Distribution of the number of lines in use at time 2, one period later.

27. Example By an elementary computation it will be found that vP = (0.13, 0.33, 0.22, 0.12, 0.10, 0.10). Since the first component of this probability vector is 0.13, the probability that no lines will be in use at time 2 is 0.13; since the second component is 0.33, the probability that exactly one line will be in use at time 2 is 0.33; and so on.