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Turning Texas Blue? February 9, 2016
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Battleground Texas A group of former Obama campaign aids has launched Battleground Texas, an organization created to turn Texas blue. What is a battleground state? Is Texas a battleground state now? A state that is competitive between the two parties. No
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Color-Coded Politics What are blue states? What are red states?
Blue states = Democratic Red states = Republican
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Swing States = Purple Swing states are often called purple because they are a close mix of blue and red. Swing states are also battleground states with the two parties hotly contesting the election outcome.
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Electoral College Votes
U.S. House members + Senators = EV Illinois has voted Democratic since 1992. New York has voted Democratic since 1988. California has voted Democratic since 1992. 270 wins! Texas is the only big state that is reliably Republican.
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Texas is a Red State Turning Texas blue won’t be easy because Texas is arguably the most reliably Republican state in the country.
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Remember Jimmy Carter? The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976, 40 years ago.
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Or Ann Richards? The last Democratic governor of Texas was Ann Richards, who served from
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Long Losing Streak No Democrat has been elected to statewide office in Texas since Democrats have lost more than 100 consecutive races for statewide office.
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Presidential Elections in Texas
Year Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate 2000 G. W. Bush 59 % Gore 38 % 2004 G. W. Bush 61 % Kerry 38 % 2008 McCain 56 % Obama 44 % 2012 Romney 57 % Obama 41 % Presidential races have not been close and it is hard to identify a trend in the Democrats’ favor from these data. Romney: 4,569,843 Obama: 3,308,124 Margin: 1,261,719
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Gubernatorial Elections in Texas
Year Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate 1998 George W. Bush 68 % Gary Mauro 31 % 2002 Rick Perry 58 % Tony Sanchez 40 % 2006* Rick Perry 39 % Chris Bell 30 % 2010 Rick Perry 55 % Bill White 42 % 2014 Greg Abbott 59 % Wendy Davis 39 % *The 2006 race also included two independents: Kinky Friedman 12 % Carole Keeton Strayhorn 18 %
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Texas Court of Criminal Appeals
Year Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate 2006 Sharon Keller 57 % J. R. Molina 43 % 2008 Tom Price 52 % Susan Strawn 46 % 2010 Michael Keasler 60 % Keith Hampton 37 % 2012 Sharon Keller 55 % Keith Hampton 41 % 2014 Bert Richardson 60 % John Granberg 37 % Races for the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals are low profile because the candidates are unable to raise enough money to mount a campaign. Consequently, voters base their choices primarily on party affiliation.
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Offices Held, 2015 Office Total number of officials Democrats Republicans U.S. Senate 2 U.S. House 36 9 27 State Executives 6 Texas Senate 31 11 20 Texas House 150 52 98 Texas Supreme Court Texas Court of Criminal Appeals 1* 8 Texas Railroad Commission 3 Texas State Board of Education 15 5 10 77 184 *In 2013, Texas Criminal Court of Appeals Justice Lawrence Myers, elected as a Republican, switched parties.
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California Dreaming
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Texas vs. California Texas, 2008 California, 2008 State A, 2008
State B, 2008 Population Electorate White 48 % 63 % Black 12 % 13 % Latino 36 % 20 % Asian 3 % -- Other 1 % Population Electorate White 42 % 63 % Black 7 % 10 % Latino 37 % 18 % Asian 13 % 6 % Other 1 % 3 % Texas, 2008 California, 2008 Which state is Texas? Which state is California? Which state is more Democratic? State B is California State A is Texas
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2008 election Texas, State A California, State B McCain—55 %
Obama—44 % Obama—61 % McCain—37 % The data are for 2008 because no exit polls were conducted in Texas in 2012.
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Vote by Race/Ethnicity
Texas in 2008 California in 2008 Obama McCain White 26 % 73 % Black 98 % 2 % Latino 63 % 35 % Asian -- other Obama McCain White 52 % 46 % Black 94 % 5 % Latino 74 % 23 % Asian 64 % 35 % other 55 % 41 % Texas California What is the big difference between the two states? In Texas, whites vote Republican. In California, they split.
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Quiz Who was the last Democratic presidential candidate to carry Texas? Jimmy Carter Bill Clinton Lyndon Johnson George H. W. Bush The answer is A.
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What We Have Learned What is battleground Texas and what are its goals? Is Texas a battleground state now? How competitive has the Texas Democratic Party been over the last 20 years? How does the Texas electorate compare and contrast with the California electorate? How do the two states compare politically?
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