1. Seasonal Severe Weather Outlook: Forecast Issues and Time Line

2. Administrative/ scientific issues CPC should resolve The outlook itself 1. The forecast tools and their predictions. 2. What will the forecast map visually show and say? 3. How will the outlook be conveyed? Official write-up and supporting figures, or a simple forecast map? 4. How will we convey the science behind the outlook? 5. How will the outlook be issued? Web, internal only? Forecast Preparation 1. A forecaster briefing packet will be needed? If so, who will do it? 2. How will the forecast tool results be conveyed to the forecasters? 3. Who will prepare the official products? Presenting the outlook 1. Will NCEP/ NWS/ NOAA briefs be needed? If so, who will prepare their briefing packets? 2. We will need a Q+A document. Who takes the lead on this? 3. Who will take the lead on media interviews? 4. Will Public Affairs be involved? If so, How? Press release, media availability, media coordination. 5. Will we need to have an event memo sent to NCEP/ NWS/ NOAA?

3. The forecast tools: 1.CFS Statistical/ dynamical hybrid model results 2.ENSO climate analogue/ binning tool. Binning based on ENSO strength.

4. ENSO Strength (std. dev) Tornadoes: % Departure from Average Range (% Departure) 1 σ range# Cases% Cases with Stated sign of Departure +2σ and stronger 20 +1.5to +2σ15 +1 σ to +1.5 σ10 +0.5 σ to +1 σ5 0 to +0.5 σ0 -0.5σ to 0 σ-0 -1σ to -0.5 σ-5 -1.5 σ to -1 σ-10 -2 σ to -1.5 σ-15 -2 σ and colder-20 Example: Numbers are For Example Only Displaying ENSO Climate Analogue/ Binning Tool Results Suggested Summary Table shows observed mean departures for varying strengths of ENSO, along with measures of the observed variability for the specified ENSO strength.

5. Another example of Binning as a forecast tool Step 1. Obtain Forecaster consensus strength of ENSO. Let us assume for this example that the predicted ENSO strength is + 1C to +1.75C. Step 2. Calculate the average departure in tornadoes for that predicted ENSO range, along with the spread, etc. An example Forecast Product from the Atlantic hurricane season outlook

6. Strawman Forecaster briefing packet- Suggested Contents 1.Convey the nature of the seasonal severe weather outlook 2.Convey how the outlook will look, how it will be released, products associated with the release, etc. 3.Key slides showing ENSO 4.Latest ENSO predictions 5.Summary slides showing ENSO links to severe weather 6.Show the various forecast tools and their predictions for 2016 7.Enter individual forecaster predictions (perhaps 70% probability range) and arrive at a consensus forecast

7. Preparation Time-Line for February 2016 Seasonal Severe Weather Outlook Days 28-32 Jan. 25-29 Days 21-25 (Feb. 1-5) Days 14-18 (Feb. 8-12) Days 7-11 (Feb. 15-19) Days 2-4 (Feb. 22-24) Day 0-1 (Feb. 25-26) XXX prepares forecaster briefing packet showing key analyses and prediction tools. Who will take the lead? Informal interaction and analysis among forecast team members begins. ??? Hui Wang prepares GFS hybrid model results. Is this timeline OK? Initial forecaster conference call for Outlook. ??? XXX drafts preliminary Outlook and sends for forecaster review. Will there be an official write-up? If so, who will take the lead? Additional forecaster conference calls as needed. ??? Forecasters complete reviews of text. Feb 19: Forecaster reviews of text completed. ??? XXX prepares briefing package for NCEP, NWS, and NOAA Administration. Is this necessary? ??? XXX prepares Q+A’s for press interviews. ??? CPC/ forecasters review Q+A’s and briefing packet. All outlooks finalized. Briefings to NCEP and NWS. ???Mike Halpert and Gerry prepare and finalize Event Memo. CPC sends it to principals. Will we have an event memo sent up to NWS/ NOAA? Feb. 25: ???Outlook sent to NOAA and CPC web masters by cob. Will we have an official web product? Feb. 26: Outlook released at 11:00 am ET. How will the outlook be released? Web? internal only? ??? P.A. conference call with lead forecaster. ??? P.A. conference call with lead forecaster as needed. ??? P.A. drafts press release. Are we doing one? PA: Interaction with CPC as needed. Feb. 22: PA documents clearance completed. Feb. 22: CPC’s final review of all PA documents. Feb. conference call as needed. PA media plans executed. Scheduled Release Date: 26 February 2016 A more detailed timeline can be achieved after addressing issues in slide 1.