1. WP5.4 – Transnational transfer of experiences Overview of methodology for policy scenarios Jana Suklan 25.9.2014 – 27.9.2014 Piran

2. Objectives: provide useful and relevant scenarios recognized by actors in charge of territorial development strategies provide material for development strategies and related documents.

3. Outputs: To highlight key changes and challenges until 2020 Effects of internal and international migration (in and out migration flows)

4. Scenarios aim at being relevant at giving orientation can be used as a starting point for strategic considerations (Schüll, 2014)

5. Scenarios are supposed describe a spectrum of: possible, preferable and probable future developments. (Schüll, 2014)

6. Scenario coverage definition: Geographical scope: South East Europe Temporal scope: 2020 Thematic coverage: 3 realms (according to the EU2020 Strategy) Target group: Stakeholders Employment Walefare Human capital

7. MMWD, Methodology to construct MMWD policy scenarios Demographic projections Key indicators selection Construction of the scenarios Policy impact to 2020

8. From indicators to scenarios MMWD, Methodology to construct MMWD policy scenarios

9. Criteria for selection of key indicators: Relevance (EU2020 Strategy goals/targets) Indicators that are directly influenced by the demographic process Recognized by the actors in charge of territorial development strategies (relevant instutional or non-institutional stakeholders) MMWD, Methodology to construct MMWD policy scenarios

10. EU 2020 indicators: Promoting sustainable and quality employment (employment rate 75%). Investing in education and training (school dropout rate <10%, 40% of 30-34–year-olds completing third level education) Promoting social inclusion (fewer people in or at risk of poverty and social exclusion).

11. Qualitative analysis  choosing quantivative indicators consulting the relevant literature, discussing within the team and with stakeholders (expert interviews or focus group discussions) Quantitative analysis  econometric modelling

13. Procedure: 1) Current situation: country specific context, historical overview 2) Demographic evolution of the relevant age group 3) Impact of demographic changes on indicators (policy) at 2020 4) Cross sector analysis: demography influencing societal change MMWD, Methodology to construct MMWD policy scenarios

14. Literature: Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide. Futures, 38(7), 723-739. Hass, H, Vargas-Silva, C. and Vezzoli, S. (2010). Global migration futures. A conceptual and methodological framework for research and analysis. International migration institute. University of Oxford. MMWD, Methodology to construct MMWD policy scenarios, Working Paper, Februar 2014. Schüll, E. (2014) Scenarios in Social Sciences. MMWD – Study Visit and Knowledge Exchange, Salzburg.