1. 1 Economic Concepts Controlling a bad

2. 2Outline The Loss Rate (Price of Crime) The Loss Rate (Price of Crime) Two approaches Two approaches The Crime Control Technology The Crime Control Technology The Data The Data The Economic Paradigm The Economic Paradigm The Data: Expenditures on the Criminal Justice System Over Time The Data: Expenditures on the Criminal Justice System Over Time The Schematic Model: Crime Generation and Control The Schematic Model: Crime Generation and Control The Crime Control Technology The Crime Control Technology

3. Part One: The Crime Control Technology, AKA Crime Abatement Curve Start with Crime Control Technology, Assuming Crime Is Controllable Start with Crime Control Technology, Assuming Crime Is Controllable 3

4. Crime Control Technology 4 Expenditures Per Capita On Criminal Justice System Offenses Per Capita

5. 5 Part One:The Economic Paradigm Step One: Spell out the options for choice Step One: Spell out the options for choice Step Two: Value the options for choice Step Two: Value the options for choice Step Three: Choose the best option Step Three: Choose the best option

6. 6 The Economic Paradigm & The Criminal Justice System Step Three: The Objective- Minimize the total cost, i.e. the damages to victims plus expenditures on the criminal justice system Step Three: The Objective- Minimize the total cost, i.e. the damages to victims plus expenditures on the criminal justice system We want to find the best level of expenditures on the criminal justice system, i.e. the level that will minimize the total cost We want to find the best level of expenditures on the criminal justice system, i.e. the level that will minimize the total cost Min. TC($) = r*OF + E, Min. TC($) = r*OF + E, Where TC is total cost in dollars, r is the loss rate per offense, OF is the number of offenses, and E is expenditure on the criminal justice system in dollars Where TC is total cost in dollars, r is the loss rate per offense, OF is the number of offenses, and E is expenditure on the criminal justice system in dollars

7. The Total Cost Curve, TC = r*OF + E 7 Expenditures Per Capita On Criminal Justice System, E Offenses Per Capita, OF

8. The Data: Report to the Nation, 2 nd. Ed. P.122 8 2800 per 100,000 0.028 per capita $100 Per capita $300 per capita total cost line TC = r*OF + E $300 = r*0.028 + $100 r = $200/0.028 r =$7143

9. 9 Example of Optimization from Lecture One ( Introduction) Step One: Total Cost Versus Expenditure on the Criminal Justice System (CJS), the yellow line in the next graph Step One: Total Cost Versus Expenditure on the Criminal Justice System (CJS), the yellow line in the next graph Step Three: Choosing the lowest total cost expenditure level, indicated by the red line in the next graph Step Three: Choosing the lowest total cost expenditure level, indicated by the red line in the next graph

10. 10 The Graphics of Total Cost, TC TC = r*OF + E 10 $ E on CJS Total Cost (E) Minimum Cost Optimal Expenditure Economic Paradigm 1.Choose objective e. g. minimize sum of damages to victims plus expenditures, E, on CJS 2. Describe states of the world (options for choice) Total cost curve (E) 3. Choose the best option

11. 11 Step One: Listing the options for choice Show how expenditures on the criminal justice system varies with expenditures on the criminal justice system Show how expenditures on the criminal justice system varies with expenditures on the criminal justice system

12. 12 Graphics: expenditure on CJS is easy 12 $ Expenditure on criminal justice system, E on CJS, $ 45 degrees Square: all four sides Are equal in length

13. 13 Step One Continued: Listing the options for choice Show how offenses decreases with expenditures on the criminal justice system Show how offenses decreases with expenditures on the criminal justice system

14. 14 The Graphics of Crime Control, if Crime Is Controllable 14 Offenses, OF E on CJS OF(E)

15. 15 Step Two: Valuing the options for choice The loss rate, r, is the dollar cost per offense to victims, so r*OF, the loss rate times the number of offenses is the total damages to victims in dollars The loss rate, r, is the dollar cost per offense to victims, so r*OF, the loss rate times the number of offenses is the total damages to victims in dollars

16. 16 The Graphics of Damages to Victims, if Crime Is Controllable 16 $ E on CJS r*OF(E)

17. 17 Step Two: Finishing the options for choice Add expenditure on the criminal justice system plus damages to victims as they vary with expenditures on the criminal justice system Add expenditure on the criminal justice system plus damages to victims as they vary with expenditures on the criminal justice system

18. 18 The Graphics of Damages to Victims Plus Expenditures on CJS 18 $ E on CJS r*OF(E) 45 degrees

19. 19 Part Two: Expenditures on the Criminal Justice System

20. 20 Federal State and Local Expenditures

21. 21 Exponential Growth?

22. 22 Exponential Growth of Expenditures E(t) = E(0)*e g*t E(t) = E(0)*e g*t where E is expenditures in year t, E(0) is expenditures in year 0, e is the exponential function, g is the exponential rate of growth per year, and t is year t where E is expenditures in year t, E(0) is expenditures in year 0, e is the exponential function, g is the exponential rate of growth per year, and t is year t The natural logarithm, ln, linearizes this relationship The natural logarithm, ln, linearizes this relationship Ln[E(t)] = ln[E(0)*e g*t ] = ln[E(0)] + g*t Ln[E(t)] = ln[E(0)*e g*t ] = ln[E(0)] + g*t If you plot expenditures on a logarithmic scale against t (year), then g is the slope If you plot expenditures on a logarithmic scale against t (year), then g is the slope See graph on the next slide See graph on the next slide

23. 23 Three Eras of Growth in CJS Expenditures

24. 24 Correcting for inflation, Using CPI

25. 25 Real Total Direct CJS Expenditures On a Logarithmic Scale

26. 26 Part Three: Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Crime Generation (supply of offenses) Crime Generation (supply of offenses) Crime Control, the production of the certainty and severity of punishment (deterrence and detention) Crime Control, the production of the certainty and severity of punishment (deterrence and detention)

27. 27 Crime Generation Crime Control Offense Rate Per Capita Expected Cost of Punishment Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Causes ? (detention, deterrence) Expenditures Weak Link

28. 28 Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Crime Generation (supply of offenses) Crime Generation (supply of offenses) Offenses varies with the certainty of punishment, CR, the severity of punishment, SV, the celerity of punishment, CY,socio- economic causal factors, SE, and moral compliance, MC Offenses varies with the certainty of punishment, CR, the severity of punishment, SV, the celerity of punishment, CY,socio- economic causal factors, SE, and moral compliance, MC OF = f(CR, SV, CY, SE, MC) OF = f(CR, SV, CY, SE, MC) Crime Control Crime Control

29. 29 Crime Generation Crime Control Offense Rate Per Capita Expected Cost of Punishment Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Causes ? (detention, Deterrence, Rehabilitation, And revenge) Expenditures Weak Link

30. 30 Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Crime Generation (supply of offenses) Crime Generation (supply of offenses) OF = f(CR, SV, CY, SE, MC) OF = f(CR, SV, CY, SE, MC) Crime Control, the production of the certainty and severity of punishment (deterrence and detention) Crime Control, the production of the certainty and severity of punishment (deterrence and detention) Clearance ratio, CR, varies with the level of offenses, OF, and labor resources, L Clearance ratio, CR, varies with the level of offenses, OF, and labor resources, L CR = g(OF, L) CR = g(OF, L)

31. 31 Crime Generation Crime Control Offense Rate Per Capita Expected Cost of Punishment Schematic of the Criminal Justice System: Simultaneity Causes ? (detention, Deterrence, Rehabilitation, And revenge) Expenditures Weak Link OF = f(CR, SV, CY, SE, MC) CR = g(OF, L)

32. Part Four: Crime Control Technology Combine crime generation with the production function using a 4-way diagram Combine crime generation with the production function using a 4-way diagram OF = f( CR, SV, CY, SE, MC) OF = f( CR, SV, CY, SE, MC) CR = h(E) CR = h(E) 32

33. Production Function for the Criminal Justice System (CJS) 1. Variation in clearance ratio with criminal justice system expenditure per capita Clearance Ratio Criminal Justice System expenditures per capita production function CR = h($E) 33

34. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita Clearance ratio Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control 34

35. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function 35

36. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita Clearance ratio Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 36

37. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita Clearance ratio Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1 37

38. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita Clearance ratio Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1 38

39. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita Clearance ratio Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1 39

40. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita Clearance ratio Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1 2 2 40

41. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1 2 2 3 41

42. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control 1 2 3 42

43. Test the Theory with the Data Report to the Nation On Crime and Justice, Second edition Report to the Nation On Crime and Justice, Second edition P. 122 P. 122 43

44. Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice 44

45. Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice Expect Get 45

46. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita Clearance ratiot Crime Generation OF=f( CR, SV, CY, SE, MC) Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1 2 2 3 46

47. Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice Causal conditions account for more variation than control 47

48. Crime Generation Crime Control Offense Rate Per Capita Expected Cost of Punishment Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Causes ? (detention, deterrence) Expenditures Weak Link 48

49. Part Five; Class Survey Fall 2011 Vs. Winter 2012 Scoring Ten Behaviors Scoring Ten Behaviors 48 responses Fall 2011 48 responses Fall 2011 58 responses in Winter 2012 58 responses in Winter 2012 49

50. SERIOUSNESS SURVEY RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS): MEDIAN F11 W12 1. HOMICIDE_10 10__ 2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL)_ 9 10__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _ 10 _9_ 4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE_ 7 __7 5. SELLING HEROIN _ 7 _6_ 6. AUTO THEFT _ 6 _6_ 7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000_ 5 __5 8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _ 3 __3 9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 1 __1 10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 1 __1 50

51. Center of the Scores Distribution Mode: most likely Mode: most likely Median: middle person Median: middle person Average: sum of scores divided by total number of people Average: sum of scores divided by total number of people 51

52. 2.5% mean 52

53. Consistency from year to year 53

54. Conclusions Consistency from year to year Triage is possible: we can separate the more serious behaviors from the less serious behaviors 54

55. 55

56. Distribution of Homicide Scores in F 2011 56

57. Conclusions Consistency from year to year Triage is possible: we can separate the more serious behaviors from the less serious behaviors For serious behaviors, a clear majority view For example, for homicide W 2012 42 out of 57 score it a 10, while Fall 2011 43 out of 48 score it a 10, while 3 out of 43 score it a 9 and 2 out of 48 score it a 7. 57

58. 58

59. Distribution of Forcible Rape Scores F 2011 Fall 2011, over half the class score forcible rape a 10, 44 out of 48 score it 8 or above. Winter 2012, nearly half the class, 26 out of 58 score it 10 59

61. Three ? Views on Pot, Fall 2011 Score: 0-2, 35 Score: 3-5, 11 Score: 6&7, 2 24, a score of 1, would carry a majority vote, 32, a score of 2, would carry a 2/3 vote 61

62. Conclusions Consistency from year to year Triage is possible: we can separate the more serious behaviors from the less serious behaviors For serious behaviors, a clear majority view For example, for homicide 43 out of 48 score it a 10, while 3 out of 43 score it a 9 and 2 out of 48 score it a 7. The less serious behaviors are more controversial! 62

63. Question Since a 2/3 majority view pot possession as not very serious, a score of 2 or less, why doesn’t pot get decriminalized? 63

64. Dispersion of Scores Distribution Measures of dispersion Measures of dispersion Standard deviation Standard deviation Inter-quartile range Inter-quartile range Range: Maximum - Minimum Range: Maximum - Minimum 64

65. 2.5% mean 65

66. The more serious the behavior, the less disagreement about policy. Fall 2011 66

67. Bureau of Justice Statistics, Report to the Nation The Alternative p.170 One more step: converting seriousness scores to a metric (years of sentence or Loss rate of $) The Economics of Crime Control, Ch. 4 67

68. Source: $ 1.54 Million (1990), Orley Ashenfelter, Princeton, Based on highway safety Calibrating $ values for Seriousness 68

69. BehaviorSeriousnes s 2012 Loss Rate, $ NIJ Cohen Homicide10$1,540,001$1,191,000 Poisoning10$1.540,000 Rape9$354,850$87,000 arson7$18,837$38,000 Selling heroin6$4,340 Auto theft6$4,340$4,000 embezzlement5$1,000.04 prostitute3$53 Pot possession 1$2.82 Miller, Cohen, Wiersema: Victim Costs & Consequences (NIJ) 69

70. Months Served in CA Prison Vs. F ’11 Seriousness Scores 70

71. 71

72. P&V Ch. 4 Loss Rates in 1975 72

73. Hey! Hey! What Did We Learn Today? There are two ways to infer the loss rate for crime. The first, how much are we willing to pay to prevent the average crime? Second, use estimates of the value for saving a human life to calibrate seriousness scores. 73