Acid Rain Revisited Hubbard Brook Research Foundation Science Links Bridging the Gap between Science and Policy.

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Presentation on theme: "Acid Rain Revisited Hubbard Brook Research Foundation Science Links Bridging the Gap between Science and Policy."— Presentation transcript:

1 Acid Rain Revisited Hubbard Brook Research Foundation Science Links Bridging the Gap between Science and Policy

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4 Outline Patterns of Emissions and Deposition Forest Ecosystem Effects Ecosystem Response to Management Strategies Conclusions

5 Patterns of Emissions and Deposition

6 Time (years)

7 allowances allocated for that year all sources Phase I sources Phase II sources SO2 Emission Reductions under the Acid Rain Program

8 Source: Cantor Fitzgerald

9 SO 2 Emissions and the Allowance Bank, 1995- 2003 8.7 11.713.5 15.0 16.6 21.6 18.8 18.1 19.9 Allowances allocated that year Unused allowances from previous year (bank) Actual emissions from affected sources SO 2 Emissions (million tons)

10 1990 emissions Phase I (1995-1999) average emissions Phase II (2000-2003) average emissions scale: 1990 emissions in Ohio were 2.2 million tons SO 2 Emission Reductions, by State

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14 projected emissions level in the absence of Title IV 8.1

15 1990 emissions Phase I (1996-1999) average emissions Phase II (2000-2003) average emissions scale: 1990 emissions in Ohio were 500,000 tons NO x Emission Reductions, by State

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18 Source Area Includes: VT, MA, NY, NH, CT, RI, ME, OH, PA, DC, MD, NJ, DE, MI, VA, WV, QUE, ONT

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21 Forest Ecosystem Effects

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23 Soil Acid Rain Effects Soil S and N enrichment Nutrient cation (Ca 2+, Mg 2+) depletion Al mobilization

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26 Aquatic Effects

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31 Summary (n=1469) No. of Lakes(%)Surface area (ha)(%) pH < 5.0352242,0008.4 ANC < 0 µeq/L388262,65011

32 Ecosystem Response to Management Strategies

33 Critical Chemical Indicators for Ecosystem Response to Acidic Deposition Terrestrial Soil and soil water Ca/Al < 1 Soil base saturation < 20% Aquatic Surface waters pH 2  mol/L

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37 Ali (µmol/L) pH ANC (µeq/L) NO 3 (µeq/L) SO 4 (µeq/L)

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45 Model Predictions of the Response of Soil and Water to Acidic Deposition: Past and Future

46 Climatic data Solar radiation Precipitation Temperature PnET Water balance Photosynthesis Living biomass Litterfall Net Mineralization BGC – Surface water Aqueous reactions Uptake Deep water flow Shallow water flow Weathering Wet Deposition Dry Deposition BGC Aqueous reactions Surface reactions Cation exchange Adsorption Humic binding Aluminum dissolution/precipitation

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48 Policy or Proposal NO x (million short tons) SO 2 (million short tons) Deadline for Implementation 4 Pollutant? 1990 Clean Air Act4.68.92010No Jeffords Bill S.556 (as amended) 1.5 66% reduction from 1997 levels 2.25 75% reduction from Phase II levels of 1990 CAAAs 2008Yes Smith Bill S.2815 (Clear Skies) 2.1 by 2010 1.7 by 2018 67% of current levels 4.5 by 2010 3.0 by 2018 73% of current emissions 2010 and 20183 pollutant Carper Bill S.843 (Clean Air Planning Act of 2003) 1.87 by 2009-2012 1.7 after 2013 4.5 by 2009-2012 3.5 by 2013-2015 2.25 after 2016 2009, 2013, 20163 pollutant Clinton Bill S.588Approx. 2.1 in 2004-2006 56% reduction from 1990 levels Approx. 1.38 70% reduction from 1990 CAAAs levels Approx. 4.45 by 2007 50% reduction from 1990 CAAAs levels 2004-2006: 2007 No

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51 SO 2 Cap and Trade Program: Expected Annual Costs by 2010


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