1. Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Context and Scale Oriented Thunderstorm Satellite Predictors Development (COALITION) EUMETSAT Fellowship Host: MeteoSwiss Luca Nisi Supervisor: I.Giunta Convection Workshop 8-10.10.2009

2. 2 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Build up a heuristic model, which accounts for: thunderstorms as entities (objects) convective signatures and environment (couplings) rapid (non-linear) time-changes through conservation rules (where possible..) semi-empirical rules (forecaster experience, conceptual models) coupling engine Challenges → Final product: likelihood for location and intensity of severe convection timeliness: lead-time > 15min  early warnings NWP analysis / forecast (INCA 1 ) Radio-soundings Ground stations Climatology (real-time user interaction) MSG/SEVIRI MetOp/IASI Weather radar Orography Lightning

3. 3 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Approach Environment CONDITIONING PHYSICS Thunderstorm { Object evolution (state + tendencies) INTERACTION COALITION MODEL Environment {

4. 4 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss clear sky + cloudy Approach / Model, examples e.g. instability fields (GII) coupling engine Convection Strengthening e.g. First cumulis (CI) FORECAST Example:

5. 5 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss cloudy Approach / Model, examples e.g. microphysical features coupling engine Convection Strengthening e.g first precipitation signals FORECAST Example:

6. 6 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss 2 : Thunderstorm Radar Tracking stormy Approach / Model, examples e.g. Cb cell (RDT) coupling engine Thunderstorm e.g precipitation cells (TRT 2 ) FORECAST Example:

7. 7 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss 1. Evolution of last consecutive observations → minimize deterministic errors 2. Refresh history along trajectory → include additional information (e.g. link between convection phase) → perturbations of initial state  ensemble → minimize bias along the trajectory 3. Forward extrapolation: → build forecast (analytical solution) Observed Inertial extrapolation Ensemble COALITION forecast TIME Intensity clear sky info only new info: cumulis new info: precip new info: TRT

8. 8 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Work on-going designing / developing algorithm filling data base on selected cases current criteria: intensity extension duration synoptic conditions  any feedback welcome!

9. 9 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss References Hering, A. M., C. Morel, G. Galli, S. Sénesi, P. Ambrosetti, and M. Boscacci, 2004: Nowcasting thunderstorms in the Alpine region using a radar based adaptive thresholding scheme. In: Proceedings of Third European Conference Radar on Hydrology (ERAD), Visby (Sweden), Copernicus, 206-211. König, M. 2009: Convective Initiation: Current Studies on Satellite Retrieved Indicators. Forschungskolloquium MeteoSwiss, 19. May 2009. Krakow Convection Workshop, 2007: Recommendations from the working group, EUMETSAT. Mecikalski, J. R. and K. M. Bedka, 2006: Forecasting convective initiation by monitoring the evolution of moving cumulus in daytime GOES imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev. (IHOP Special Issue, January 2006), 134, 49-68. Mecikalsky, J. R., K.M. Bedka, Paech, S.J., Litten, L.A., 2008: A Statistical Evaluation of GOES Cloud-Top Properties for Nowcasting Convective Initiation. American Met. Soc. (IHOP Special Issue, December 2008), 4899-4914. Rosenfeld D., Woodley W.L, Lerner A., Kelman G., Lindsey D.T., 2008: Satellite detection of severe convective storms by their retrieved vertical profiles of cloud particle effective radius and thermodynamic phase. Journal of Geophysical Res., 113, D04208. Setvák M., Rabin R.M., Doswell C.A., Levizzani V., 2003: Satellite observations of convective storm top features in the 1.6 and 3.7/3.9 μm spectral bands. Atmos.Research, 67- 68C, 589-605. Thank you!

10. 10 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss time Intensity Pre-convective environment Convective Initiation Stage Mature Convective Stage possible application of COALITION forecast Phases: ?? ? ? ? ? ? Observed InstabilityCI Radar cellLL Convergence Radar echoTot. Prec. Wat. Squall line Syn. forcing

11. 11 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Algorithm time x,y, intensity,.. PAST 1.Time evolution from last consecutive observations → correct object dynamics (position + attributes)  “deterministic” Observed inertial Uncertainty inertial inertia + environment Deterministic forecast FUTURE PRESENT

12. 12 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss 2.Evolution of last consecutive observations → minimize deterministic errors Observed inertial Uncertainty Deterministic forecast Deterministic forecast = inertia + environment TIME Intensity