1. 1 ERCOT 2015 West Texas Study November 18, 2014 Jeff Billo

2. 2 Study Need Study Goals Load Forecast Data Study Approach Deliverables 2015 West Texas Study

3. 3 Oil and gas development in the Permian Basin has increased at a rapid rate. 2014 RTP study used 2013 load forecast data that may not reflect latest trends. According to a recent report published by Texas Tech University 1 : –The Permian Basin has the greatest rig count of any basin/region in the world (27% of the U.S. and 56% of Texas) –Since December 27, 2013, the number of horizontal, oil-directed rigs in the Permian Basin rose by 63%, representing half of the total increase of those types of rigs in the United States Study Need 1.http://www.depts.ttu.edu/communications/media/downloads/PermianBasin.pdfhttp://www.depts.ttu.edu/communications/media/downloads/PermianBasin.pdf

4. 4 Identify transmission needs in West Texas using latest load forecast data Develop comprehensive transmission plan to address identified needs through 2020 Study Goals

5. 5 Oil and gas industry to provide latest load forecast data to TDSPs and ERCOT by November 28 TDSPs to provide model updates (idevs) to ERCOT by December 12 Load Forecast Data

6. 6 Assumptions: –Use final WFW reliability cases from 2014 RTP for years 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2020 Economic analysis will use 2017 and 2020 economic cases from 2014 RTP –Update load forecast data for West and Far West –Update generation per latest information –All other assumptions consistent with RTP Analysis –Steady state reliability (N-1, G-1+N-1, X-1+N-1) –Economic (N-1) –Additional sensitivities? - TBD Study Approach

7. 7 Cases and results will be posted on MIS Updates given at RPG meetings Final report with project recommendations Deliverables

8. 8