1. Discussion of Fire’s Impact on Air Quality & Update on the Inspection and Maintenance Program Development Presentation to the North Front Range Transportation and Air Quality Planning Council September 6, 2012 Mike Silverstein Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment 1

2. National Ambient Air Quality Standards Background The federal Clean Air Act establishes national health standards for six pollutants: The federal Clean Air Act establishes national health standards for six pollutants: – Fine particulates – Ozone – Carbon monoxide – Nitrogen dioxide – Sulfur dioxide – Lead All states must develop air quality plans and programs to comply with these standards – permitting, inspections, emission control measures All states must develop air quality plans and programs to comply with these standards – permitting, inspections, emission control measures Colorado complies with all of these standards except for ozone along the Front Range urban corridor Colorado complies with all of these standards except for ozone along the Front Range urban corridor Colorado also experiences high particulate levels on occasion due to natural events – windblown dust and smoke Colorado also experiences high particulate levels on occasion due to natural events – windblown dust and smoke 2

3. Extreme Heat and Wildfires Impact Air Quality Heat and lots of sunshine, combined with our urban and industrial emissions, result in elevated ozone levels Extensive wildfires, both in Colorado and in neighboring states, generate smoke which creates haze and elevates particulate matter levels Though not a major contributor, wildfires can also impact ozone levels, in both directions! – Thick smoke blocks sunlight, reducing ozone; however – Smoke contains chemicals which can react to form ozone and particles in the smoke can interfere with ozone instrumentation, which appears as an increase in ozone CDPHE is investigating whether fire caused us to exceed air quality standards 3

4. What is Ozone? Ozone Formation Oxygen (O 2 ) + Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) + Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Ozone (O 3 ) Sunlight 4

5. Health Effects of Ozone Ozone: makes it more difficult to breathe deeply and vigorously; causes shortness of breath and pain when taking a deep breath; causes coughing and sore or scratchy throat; inflames and damages the airways; aggravates lung diseases such as asthma; emphysema; and chronic bronchitis; increase the frequency of asthma attacks; makes the lungs more susceptible to infection; continues to damage the lungs even when the symptoms have disappeared; causes increased mortality 75 ppb Ozone Standard 5

6. Colorado Experiences the “Right” Meteorological Conditions for High Ozone Hot summers with abundant sunshine are typical for Colorado, so this summer’s ozone levels are not that unusual Persistent high pressure and the lack of thunderstorm activity allows ozone levels to build throughout the day This has been the dominant weather pattern for the Front Range region during high ozone events Typical “4-Corners High Pressure Dome” 6

7. Emission Controls have Substantially Reduced Ozone Levels in the State Numerous emission control measures have been implemented in Colorado to reduce ozone concentrations Vehicle inspection and maintenance programs and cleaner burning gasoline Industrial and commercial equipment controls Oil and gas measures Federal measures, including vehicle exhaust emission standards All of these measures (with the exception of the NFR I/M program) are in the federal plan – the “SIP” New measures are expected to further improve ozone conditions over the next five years Federal oil and gas controls Power plant emission controls and conversions from coal to natural gas 7

8. Over Time Ozone Levels Have Gone Down, though We Still Exceed the Ozone Standard 8

9. Summer 2012 Air Quality: Ozone This past summer, ozone levels have been elevated but are generally similar to last year’s values 9

10. 10

12. North Front Range Preliminary Ozone Monitoring Data for 2012 (in parts per billion) Site1 st Max 2 nd Max 3 rd Max 4 th Max 5 th Max RMNP*90 (6/21) 87 (7/04) 81 (5/26) 81 (6/14) 80 (5/27) Ft. Collins -West93 (6/22) 86 (7/13) 86 (8/09) 80 (8/31) 77 (6/17) Ft. Collins - CSU94 (6/22) 83 (8/09) 80 (7/13) 74 (7/14) 74 (7/19) Rist Canyon77 (8/09) 76 (4/06) 72 (5/15) 70 (3/26) 69 (6/18) Greeley - Weld Tower 90 (7/11) 87 (7/04) 85 (7/13) 80 (6/17) 78 (7/24) *RMNP data through July 31, 2012 12

13. New violating sites as 2012 ozone values replace lower 2009 values

14. Human Hair (70 µm diameter) PM 2.5 (2.5 µm) Hair cross section (70  m) PM 10 ( 10µm ) Particulate Matter – What is it? A complex mixture of extremely small solid particles and drops of liquid in the air 14

15. Health Effects of Particulate Matter Particulate Matter: causes premature death in people with heart or lung disease, causes nonfatal heart attacks, causes irregular heartbeat, aggravates asthma, decreases lung function, and increases respiratory symptoms- such as irritation of the airways, coughing or difficulty breathing 35 ug/m 3 PM2.5 Standard 15

16. Summer 2012 Air Quality: Particulates  Wildfires occur frequently in Colorado and the West and can effect summertime air quality Particulate matter concentrations in many of Colorado’s towns and cities have been higher this summer due to smoke and a number of exceedances of health standards have been recorded – Smoke readily impairs visibility, sometimes many miles away, though rarely are particulate matter standards violated when smoke drifts away from the immediate burn area We do have access to real-time monitoring data in the Front Range region which measured exceedances of the PM2.5 standard – Note that laboratory analysis of particulate samples take time, so we won’t know all of the final numbers for a few months 16

17. CDPHE’s Smoke Messaging Through CDPHE’s website, social media (Facebook & Twitter), EnviroFlash, telephone hotlines and media advisories: “If visibility is less than 5 miles, smoke has reached levels that are unhealthy. If smoke is thick or becomes thick, remain indoors. This is especially true for those with heart disease, respiratory illnesses, the very young, and the elderly. Consider limiting outdoor activity when moderate to heavy smoke is present. Consider relocating temporarily if smoke is present indoors and is making you ill.” 17

18. Examples of Wildfire Smoke and the Impacts on Air Quality 18

19. Smoke from the Hewlett Fire over Old Town Fort Collins; May 16, 2012 On this day, particulate levels did not exceed the standard in Fort Collins; ozone readings were also below the standard PM2.5 levels did exceed the standard the next day (May 17 th ) in Fort Collins; ozone was below the standard 19

20. High Park Wildfire near Fort Collins; June 11, 2012 On this day, particulate levels did exceed the standard in Fort Collins; ozone readings were below the standard 20

21. Heavy smoke from the Waldo Canyon Wildfire; June 26, 2012 On this day, particulates did not exceed the standard in Colorado Springs; ozone readings were also below the standard PM2.5 levels did exceed the standard the next day (June 27th) in Colorado Springs; ozone was below the standard 21

22. Smoke from the High Park Wildfire near Fort Collins impacting the Denver-metro area; June 12, 2012 On this day, particulates exceeded the standard in Longmont; ozone readings were below the standard throughout the region 22

23. Smoke from Wyoming and Montana wildfires impacting the Denver- metro and North Front Range areas; July 4, 2012 On this day, particulate levels approached the standard but did not exceed it in Denver; ozone readings exceeded the standard up and down the Front Range 23

24. On this day, ozone exceeded the ozone standard throughout the Front Range region without the presence of smoke – this is the typical ozone exceedance situation for the Front Range Region 24

25. NASA’s Aqua satellite image, June 23, 2012, showing the regional transport of smoke from Colorado’s wildfires Red outlines approximate the locations of actively burning fires Note how local particulate levels and visibility impairment diminish with distance Also observe how unlikely it would be that wildfire smoke could significantly influence regional ozone levels 25

26. “Exceptional Events” Exceptional Events are unusual or naturally occurring events that can affect air quality but are not reasonably controllable (such as uncontrolled fire or blowing dust)  EPA recognizes that exceptional events should not penalize an area  Monitored values determined to be exceptional are not considered when determining compliance with National Ambient Air Quality Standards  CDPHE intends to identify events that the science indicates are caused or heavily influenced by natural events  Like blowing dust and wildfire episodes 26

27. CDPHE is in the Process of Determining if Any of the 2012 High Ozone and Particulate Concentrations are Exceptional  The State is in the process of “flagging” some of this year’s high values as exceptional - this process is ongoing and can take at least a year for a final determination by CDPHE  State must then prepare science-based justification for each exceptional event  EPA has issued very stringent guidance for determining exceptional events, and their approval is necessary 27

28. Questions so far? 28

29. Air Quality Control Commission’s Review of the Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Program: A Quick Update 29

30. Air Quality Control Commission’s I/M Review Process  Various vehicle inspection and maintenance programs have been in place in Colorado since the 1980’s, including in the northern Front Range Region  The present “centralized enhanced” program utilizes I/M-240 and remote sensing technologies, and is operated by a contractor  In 2012, the AQCC embarked on a process to assess the current program with the goal of putting in place a program to help meet the region’s future air quality needs  From February through June 2012, the AQCC received briefings from the Air Pollution Control Division covering the technical and economic aspects of various vehicle inspection and maintenance programs 30

31. Basic Tenets of a Future Program from the AQCC Quality Control Commission  Other testing technologies and approaches are to be considered  Any program should achieve the same or more emission reduction benefit compared to the current program  Customer convenience should be improved  Inspection costs to vehicle owners should not increase  Administrative fees should not increase  The boundaries of the program area will not altered  Increased model year exemptions should be considered 31

32. 32

33. 33

34. The Commission is Anticipating a Proposal from the Division in September that Advances a Future Program The Division’s framework:  Increase the model year exemption from 4 to 7 model years  Require on-board diagnostics (OBD II) testing for the next 4 years (2 inspection cycles)  Require I/M-240 testing commencing with the 3 rd inspection cycle  Require long-term OBD II testing for vehicles that cannot be tested with I/M-240 (hybrids, over-sized tires, traction control vehicles, others)  Continued emphasis on remote sensing  The boundaries of the program area are not altered 34

35. Current Proposed 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Model Years Comparison of Current Program versus Proposed Program Waiver Period OBD IM240 1 st OBD2 nd OBD1 st IM2402 nd IM2403 rd IM240 1 st IM2402 nd IM2403 rd IM2404 th IM2405 th IM2406 th IM2407 th IM240 New Model Year Exemption OBD Testing IM240 Testing New Model Year Exemption IM240 Testing 35

36. Anticipated Impacts of a New Program  No increase in inspection costs to vehicle owners  Estimated annual program costs will be reduced by at least $1 million beginning in 2015  Improved motorist convenience with additional model year exemptions and more rapid OBD II testing  Emission reductions are maintained  New program proposed to begin January 1, 2015 36

37. Questions Raised Regarding the I/M Program and Potential Program Modifications CDPHE considered a low mileage exemption, and operational issues are a barrier to this exemption: o “Cold start” emissions are significant, sometimes more important than over-all mileage emissions o Who verifies low mileage? County clerks – this would be an additional burden How many NFR vehicles failed in 2011? o For 2011 the number of initial IM240 inspections was 142,982 - of these initial inspections, 13,622 vehicles failed, which resulted in an I/M-240 initial failure rate of 9.53 % for the NFR What was the average repair cost in the NFR: o In 2011, the average emissions repair cost for I/M-240 failures was $298.11 Did failed vehicles comply or were they simply registered out of the counties to avoid testing and repairs? o There is no actual data for this, though it is estimated that at most 2% of the vehicle owners may take such action, or approximately 273 vehicles per year in Larimer and Weld Counties o Some of these 273 vehicles may have been sold or scrapped, reducing the illegal action of registering out of the County just to avoid the program 37

38. Any final questions? 38