1. Education in sub-Saharan Africa: the importance of the number of siblings Øystein Kravdal, Ivy Kodzi, Wendy Sigle- Rushton Øystein Kravdal, Ivy Kodzi, Wendy Sigle- Rushton

2. Importance of the research area Concern about the possibly harmful effects of high fertility for society – motivation for anti-natalist policies But much uncertainty about how strong these effects are Recent years: more interest in whether the families with many children (more than they want) are disadvantages themselves: health of mother and child, education,..

3. Importance of the research area Concern about the possibly harmful effects of high fertility for society – motivation for anti-natalist policies But much uncertainty about how strong these effects are Recent years: more interest in whether the families with many children (more than they want) are disadvantages themselves: health of mother and child, education,..

4. A causality problem One would ideally like to know the causal effects of having many siblings, which could tell us: What would happen if we managed to reduce unwanted fertility, e.g. by good family planning programs? Or if people’s fertility desires were reduced (for reasons unrelated to educational goals)? But difficult to establish: common factors behind fertility and children’s education that are hard to take fully into account.

5. Earlier studies Included as many relevant control variables as possible Considered twin births as ”natural experiment” /”instrument” (sex compos.) Compared a child who has grown up with many young siblings with a brother/sister who has grown up with fewer (”within family”). Studied how a child’s educ progression has varied over age depending on variations in numb of young siblings (”within child”)

6. Contribution from this study We use a multilevel multiprocess model that controls for constant mother-level unobserved factors – not applied for such purposes earlier (but other dem studies). A: Allow effects to vary across 4 educational transitions. B: Allow effects of number of old siblings to be different from those of number of not- so-old and young siblings (3 age groups). Some have done A, some B, but none both

7. Effects may vary across settings, but very mixed findings in earlier studies. We divide into two groups according to mother’s education. The analysis is based on DHS data from 26 countries in SSA.

8. A few words about the possible causal pathways Complex mechanisms The most obvious: Parents may not afford to send a school-age child to school if there are many siblings who are very young (costly and needing attention). But children above a certain age contribute to the family income or help with housework: Having many siblings above, say, age 15 may be an advantage.

9. What’s the effect of siblings who are also of school-age? (”competitors” but may also help economically and with housework). Possible argument: These children represent a cost, at least if enrolled. If 3 children: may afford to have all in school. If 5: only 2-3-4 (dep contr from others, advantages of scale) -> reduce chance for ’our’ child. Also positive effect?: if these children are responsible for housework and it is fixed or at least not increases proportionally with number of children: less housework for each, more time for schooling.

10. Perhaps a bit far-fetched – should probably expect the first mechanism to dominate. But we operationalize number of school- aged children as number aged 6-15. For the oldest of these, schooling may in reality no longer be an option, and they may contribute positively (as assumed for those 16+) So we should not be very surprised if we see a positive effect

11. Model Equations for the educational transition k for child j of woman i (child of relevant age who has made the k-1th transition): log (p ij (k) /(1-p ij (k) )) = γ 0 (k) +γ 1 (k) Y ij + τ i Equations for fertility of woman i; first birth: log h i (1) = β 0 (1) +β 1 (1) A i (1) +β 3 (1) X i +δ i higher-order births (M parity dummies): log h i (2) = β 0 (2) +β 1 (2) A i (2) + β 2 (2) D i + β 3 (2) X’ i + β 4 (2) M i +δ i Equations for the chance that there is information about a child’s education log (s ij /(1-s ij )) = η 0 +η 1 Z ij + λ i Unobserved factors (τ i δ i λ i ) allowed to be correlated

12. ResultsEducational transitionNumber of siblings of age 0-56-1516+ 1: -> 1 year 0.018* 0.0100.123** 2: -> 6 years-0.115*** 0.060**0.042*** 3: -> 9 years-0.102** 0.065**0.014 4: -> 12 years-0.131* 0.0080.037 * p<0.10; ** p< 0.05; *** p<0.01

13. On the whole, the effects are modest: Consider the chance the a 20-year old has completed primary school, given entry: 0,2,4,6 younger or older siblings born at 2-year intervals: variation between 75% and 82% (third transition 39%-45%) 0,2,4,6 younger or older siblings born at 2-year intervals: variation between 75% and 82% (third transition 39%-45%) (Even in the extreme/unlikely situation where the child has 5 siblings born 7-11 years after him/herself, i.e. 5 very young siblings at the age when s/he is a primary- school child: not lower than 66%)

14. More adverse effects if the mother has completed primary school: Perhaps any advantage of a higher purchasing power among the better- educated is outweighed by: - less support from broader kin network, - ideas about school children needing much supervision and that they should not work so much - less support from broader kin network, - ideas about school children needing much supervision and that they should not work so much - the older children in school themselves. - the older children in school themselves.

15. Conclusion A detailed study (considered age and variations across educ transitions) based on a method not used earlier – though there are remaining problems related to time-varying unobservables Adverse effects of young siblings (except indications of + for school entry) Positive effects of older siblings (for primary school transitions) Also some positive effects of siblings aged 6-15

16. By and large, the effects are relatively weak More adverse or less positive effects if the mother is quite well educated, which indicates increasing disadvantage of growing up with many siblings, compared to having few siblings, in the future. - though keep in mind that: generally much higher educational transition probabilities when mothers have some education.