1. Fog of War How does this movie relate to the Iraq situation? What were the lessons?

2. The film's eleven lessons Empathize with your enemy. Rationality will not save us. There's something beyond one's self. Maximize efficiency. Proportionality should be a guideline in war. Get the data. Belief and seeing are both often wrong. Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil. Never say never. You can't change human nature.

3. #7: Belief and seeing are both often wrong Bush: “Iraq has stockpiled biological and chemical weapons.” Oct. 5, 2002 Bush: “Intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised.” March 17, 2003 Ari Fleischer: “We know for a fact that there are weapons there.” Jan. 9, 2003 Fleischer: “The president had repeatedly said that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction…We still have confidence in that information. You could say Iraq continues to have weapons of mass destruction.” June 9, 2003 Cheney: “We believe [Saddam Hussein] has, in fact, reconstituted nuclear weapons.” March 16, 2003

4. Kenneth Adelman (Defense Policy Board): “I have no doubt that we’re going to find big stores of weapons of mass destruction.” March 23, 2003 Gen. Tommy Franks: “There is no doubt that the regime of Saddam Hussein possesses weapons of mass destruction.” March 22, 2003 Rumsfeld: “We know where they are. They’re in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat.” March 30, 2003

5. Lesson #8: Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning “I do not believe that we should ever apply that economic, political, and military power unilaterally. If we had followed that rule in Vietnam, we wouldn’t have been there. None of our allies supported us. Not Japan, not Germany, not Britain or France. If we can’t persuade nations with comparable values of the merit of our cause, we’d better reexamine our reasoning.”

6. "Once you've got Baghdad, it's not clear what you do with it. It's not clear what kind of government you put in place. How much credibility is that government going to have if it's set up by the U.S. military?" --Dick Cheney, 1991

7. War on Terrorism Definition of Terrorism: terrorism is “premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups…usually intended to influence an audience (U.S. Department of State).

8. Terrorism is rooted in an “intellectual” tradition that is at least 120 years old (David Rapoport, UCLA) The strategy was first proposed by late-19th- century Russian anarchists in response to public apathy, after older revolutionary efforts, including pamphlets and meetings, had failed to awaken the masses.

9. Strategies of Terrorists Provoke the government to break its own rules (on violence) and polarize society. The apathetic masses would discover that moderation and fence-sitting were impossible. Command the masses’ attention, arouse latent political tensions and provoke government to respond indiscriminately, undermining in the process its own credibility and legitimacy. call forth “mass slaughter” by the regime

10. Rationality of Violence Violence – strategic purpose: it will eliminate the middle ground. Violence by the oppressed will call forth “mass slaughter” by the regime. And then, even “the most estranged members of the colonized race” will realize that the options of going on with life, seeking nonviolent change or mouthing Western values are no longer open to them. – Frantz Fanon, 1961

11. Terrorism is for the weak Osama Bin Laden’s attack on America cam when Islamic radicalism was at “a political impasse.” Afghan-trained rebels had failed in Algeria, Egypt and Bosnia during the 1990s. The attacks on America was A bid to revive mass support “through a cycle of provocation, repression, and solidarity.” (Rapaport 2003).

12. But terrorism seems to work? Pape’s (2003) Study: suicide terrorist attacks worldwide from 1980 to 2001 (188 in all) Suicide terrorism follows a strategic logic and the reason that suicide terrorism has been rising is largely because terrorists have learned that it pays.

13. Examples: –American and French military abandoned Lebanon in 1983, –Israeli forces leave Lebanon in 1985, –Israeli forces quit the Gaza Strip and the West Bank in 1994 and 1995 –The Sri Lankan government forced to allow an independent Tamil state in 1990 –The Turkish government granted autonomy to the Kurds in the late 1990s

14. Strategies of the State Negotiation Repression –“Honestly, it’s a little tougher than I thought it was going to be,” Lott said. In a sign of frustration, he offered an unorthodox military solution: “If we have to, we just mow the whole place down, see what happens. You’re dealing with insane suicide bombers who are killing our people, and we need to be very aggressive in taking them out.” (Trent Lott 10/29/03) Tit for Tat

15. Strategies of the State Fighting terrorism with military and intelligence efforts alone is likely to boomerang, creating the fury and despair that drive people to support suicide bombers. We have built a strategy of immediate prevention -- of stopping the next attack—while ignoring causes A campaign against terrorism that drives moderates to support terrorists isn’t just failure. It fulfills terrorists goals.

16. Long Term Strategy A long-term strategy against terrorism should drive a wedge between terrorists and the public they’d like to recruit. It should show moderates that they can progress better without extremists than with them. In January 1994, soon after the Oslo Accords were signed, only 51 percent of Palestinians backed negotiations with Israel; by early 1996, after Israel pullouts from West Bank cities, that had resin to 78 percent. Between late 1994 and early 1996, support for violence against Israeli civilians slid from nearly three- fifths of Palestinians to just one-fifth.

17. Alternative Strategies Deter and Contain: –Soviet Union –China –Gulf War Iran N. Korea

18. Evaluating the Costs/Benefits of the War Was the cost of the war fully understood by the public? What are reasonable casualty estimates? On both sides? Is our goal regime change or is disarmament or something else? How long would we maintain a military force in Iraq?