1. Inspecting years 3, 4, 5, 7 and 8 Some ways of using unpublished data Explaining CVA. Some principles.

2. By the end of the session Understand the possible use of two models as part of the process of judging standards; Be able to use QCA year test data to inform judgement about progress.

3. National Middle schools forum http://www.middleschools.org.uk http://www.middleschools.org.uk “An inconsistent approach by inspectors to data; Over-reliance on progress from KS1 scores; Undue emphasis given to the Key Stage 2 results; There is variety of practice in reaching judgements over progress in KS3. “

4. Guidance from Ofsted: “ Inspectors should consider all reasonable information provided by the school. They should ensure that the school understands the basis of the final inspection judgements and state explicitly, at least in feedback, the evidence on which they have based their judgements on standards and achievement.” So………..How can we engage in debate about standards and achievement with First and Middle schools?

5. A model of the National Curriculum levels year >1234567891011 WAA AA AV1 2 2,333,4 4 4,55,4 5 6 7 CB BA WBA

6. A possible model of the National Curriculum levels year >1234567891011 WAA 1,25,6 10 A/ A* AA AV1 2 2,333,4 4 4,55,4 5 6 7 CB BA WBA Task 1: Fill in the gaps!

7. model of levels year on year year >1234567891011 WAA1,233,444,55,67899,1010 A* AA1,22,32,3,443,4,54,55,66,7788,9 AB AV1 2 2,333,4 4 4,55,4 5 6 7 CB BAW,111,222,333,44,3455,6 DE WBAWWW,111,22,1 1,2, 32,333,43,4 GF

8. model of levels year on year year >1234567891011 WAA1,233,444,55,67899,1010 A* AA1,22,32,3,443,4,54,55,6 6,7 788,9 AB AV1 2 2,333,4 4 4,55,4 5 6 7 CB BAW,111,222,333,44,3455,6 DE WBAWWW,111,22,1 1,2, 32,333,43,4 GF

9. model of levels year on year year >1234567891011 WAA1,233,444,55,67899,1010 A* AA1,22,32,3,443,4,54,55,66,7788,9 AB AV122,333,444,55,456 7 CB BAW,111,222,333,44,3455,6 DE WBAWWW,111,22,1 1,2, 32,333,43,4 GF

10. What does the model imply? Examples: If standards are above average in Y8 then pupils will generally be working at levels 6 and 7, or (if they are well above average) at level 8. If standards are above average in Y4 then pupils will be working at level 4 So………”arrange for some Year 8 books out into piles of WAA, AV, BA etc. for me to look at”.

11. Another way of looking at this: the percentage of pupils who gain various levels at the end of each Key Stage Can we use National % attainment data to bring rigour to this? The next model looks at end of Key Stage data and calculates the “in between years”, but it: assumes equal steps in progression sometimes projects backwards from the higher levels (very dubious) does not take into account rates of progress

12. 123456789 natschnatschnatschnatschnatsch level 3+read 26 level 3+wri13 level 3+EN 26 95 level 3+MA22 94 level 3+SC 97 level 4+EN 81 88 level 4+MA 78 91 level 4+SC 88 91 level 5+EN 33 75 level 5+MA 32 77 level5+ SC 46 74 level 6 level 6+EN 33 level 6+MA 57 level 6+SC 41

13. 123456789 natschnat sc hnatschnatschnatsch level 3+read 26 level 3+wri13 level 3+EN 26 4462 8095 level 3+MA22 4058 7794 level 3+SC 58 7797 level 4+EN 2040 6081 8385 88 level 4+MA 1940 4978 8286 91 level 4+SC 2042 6488 8990 91 level 5+EN 33 4761 75 level 5+MA 32 4762 77 level5+ SC 46 5564 74 level 6 level 6+EN 1122 33 level 6+MA 1938 57 level 6+SC 1428 41

14. What does the second model imply? Examples: If standards for the school are in line with national averages then around 62% of Y8 pupils will have achieved level 5+ in maths, and 38% will have achieved level 6+. So………”please give me last year’s and the current year predictions for Y8 in terms of % achieving level 4+, 5+ and 6+ in EN, MA, and SC”.

15. levelnumberlevelnumber% 767+620% 666+1240% 575+1963% 474+2687% Below 44 4 Total30 100%

16. Summary so far We can use a model of the national Curriculum levels to look at the expected levels of different groups of pupils at ends of each year in all schools. We can use the actual results at the end of Years 2, 6 and 9 to model expected % of pupils achieving different levels in the intervening years. All this is a modelling exercise, just to engage in discussion. So what about real data?

17. Real attainment data National attainment data can only be obtained from optional QCA Year tests. These tests are relatively static (they do not change annually) The data is not collected from all schools – schools may or may not submit their results to the Department ________________________________________________ Consequently the data provided on attainment is not statistically reliable. However, some anomalies such as EN in Y8 and Y9 are borne out by inspection CONVERSIONS data is statistically more reliable – more of a progress model and is a powerful tool

18. Progress Conversions Y2 to Y4

20. Middle school conversions from KS2 to Y8.

21. Middle school conversions from KS2 to Y8 Note fewer schools

22. Summary so far Conversions provide a reasonably accurate guide to the progress pupils are making:- particularly between the KS1 scores and the time they leave First school at end of Y4, as well as between KS2 scores and when they leave Middle schools at the end of Y8. Conversions do not give us progress from Y4 to Y8 though. So………”please can you fill in these blank conversion tables for me please?”.

23. Middle school conversions Y4 to Y8 Some LA’s do their own thing, e.g. Bedfordshire, Suffolk or use simple models, e.g. Essex ‘Target Tracker’.

26. Summary The data provided is only there to serve as a guide and discussion point with schools. The SEF should indicate evaluation The PIB should allow for discussion and the school can present alternative data analysis as part of any inspection. Contact Ceri.Morgan@ofsted.gov.uk John.Williams@ofsted.gov.uk