1. MGP MODEL FOR SPATIAL MODELLING DISTRIBUTION OF MIGRATION POTENTIAL Presented by: Mohd Fadzil Bin Abdul Rashid Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Ishak Ab. Ghani Centre for Statistical Studies, Faculty of Information Technology & Quantitative Sciences, University of Technology MARA (UiTM), Shah Alam Seminar ISM 2009: Seminar Aplikasi Statistik, 7 February 2009, UUM, Sintok Kedah

2. The study on internal migration is relatively important especially for urban planning purposes according to its relevance to the development policy (Obudho, 1994). This is because migration is one of the urban spatial phenomena which contribute to high degree of population and urban growth as well as the high level of urbanisation for developing countries (Pacione, 2001). urban planners are obligated to understand and consider the implications of migration phenomena in planning of urban areas (Plane and Rogerson, 1994). Even more important is to provide appropriate planning measures and support for urban areas to fulfil the needs of migrants, and minimising their negative impacts. to date, there has not been any satisfactory approach which can be applied for analysing migration as well as for spatial modelling of migration distribution in urban areas. The capabilities of GIS in spatial analysis can be integrated with statistical methods for formulating the proposed migration model. INTRODUCTION

3. THE PROPOSED MIGRATION MODEL MGP model (Migration Potential Model) The MGP model is formulated on the basis of framework GIS-based MCDA approach.

4. where, (MGP) ij is migration potential for the grid (migration destination) at coordinate ith row and jth column, i=1,2,…,n k, j=1,2,…,m k ; W k is normalised weights for the kth criterion map (GIS data layer) so that  w k =1, k=1,2,…,7; S kij is standardised score of the kth criterion map with respect to the destination at coordinate ith row, jth column, i=1,2,…,n k, j=1,2,…,m k. n k is number of rows in the kth criterion map; and m k is number of columns in the kth criterion map. Y (x,y) X 10m 10m 2 0

5. Weighted criterion map 2 Weighted criterion map 7 Composite map Added linearly Standardised criterion map (in grid system) XX Normalised weight = Weighted criterion map 1 =

6. Area of Study: the Klang Valley

7. Mapping (Output) Spatial Distribution of Migration Potential in the Klang Valley

8. Spatial Distribution of Migration Potential by Districts of the Klang Valley

9. Spatial Distribution of Migration Potential by Spatial Planning Units of the Klang Valley

10. DEVELOPMENT OF THE MGP MODEL WLC model (or land suitability model) Development process Selecting a base model Development of model criteria 12 Involved three processes: (1)determining evaluation criteria (migration decision-selectivity factors), (2)generating criterion maps, and (3)weighting criteria.

11. Seven criteria for developing the MGP model Selected from the combination approach: (1) the examination of relevant literatures, and (2) the survey of opinion (which conducted in year 2008). Development Process Selecting a base model Development of model criteria 12 Three processes: (1)determining evaluation criteria (migration decision- selectivity factors), (2)generating criterion maps, and (3)weighting criteria. Continue...

12. Development Process Selecting a base model Development of model criteria 12 Three processes: (1)determining evaluation criteria (migration decision-selectivity factors), (2)generating criterion maps, and (3)weighting criteria. Continue... Classification Standardisation Land uses of the Klang Valley in 2003

13. Continue... Classification and standardisation of scores for each sub criteria

14. Overall process of generating and Classifying the AFH Criterion Map into Sub Criteria Continue... Classification Standardisation

15. Y (x,y) X 10m 10m 2 0 The AFH criterion map in the GIS grid system (10x10m2) Continue... Values of Standardised Scores

16. Weights for each criteria Development Process Selecting a base model Development of model criteria 12 Three processes: (1)determining evaluation criteria (migration decision-selectivity factors), (2)generating criterion maps, and (3)weighting criteria. Continue...

17. GENERATING THE MGP MODEL Using Map Calculator in ArcView GIS, Generating the MGP model is a process of calculating the values of migration potential (MGP) for each cell of the criterion maps which are stored in the GIS grid system. The process model can be called the map algebra operation or weighted linear combination (WLC) process (Malczewski, 1999; Tomlin, 1990).

18. Interface of the Map Calculator for Generating the MGP Model Standardised Criterion Maps

19. each standardised score (S kij ) of the criterion maps (standardised criterion map) will be multiplied with their weights (w k ) to produce the weighted criterion map For instance for the AFH criterion map, the calculation (which is in conventional approach) is as follows: AFH= 0.272 (S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7) where, 0.272 is value of normalised weights for the AFH criterion map. The AFH is divided into 7 sub criterion maps (see Table 7.6), S1-S7 is standardised scores of the 7 AFH sub criterion maps. = (0.272) (1.0, 0.8, 0.7, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2, 0.0) = (0.272, 0.218, 0.190, 0.136, 0.082, 0.054, 0.000) Seven weighted criterion maps are produced in the calculations, The seven weighted criterion maps are then added linearly to produce a composite map (output). Standardised the AFH criterion map Weighted the AFH criterion map Weight

20. It is found that the MGP model is a very useful model for spatial modelling of migration distribution in urban areas. There is a very significant output which has been produced from the model, that is, mapping the spatial distribution of migration potential in urban areas. It has been proven that the output is reliable application in urban planning decision-making where the output including map and its attributes (information) can help urban planners to understand more about spatial migration distribution in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS

21. Malczewski, J. (1999a). GIS and Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, John Willey & Sons, Inc., New York. Malczewski, J. (1999b). "Spatial Multi-criteria Decision Analysis." Spatial Multi- criteria Decision Making and Analysis: A Geographic Information Sciences Approach, J.-C. Thill, ed., Ashgate Publishing Ltd, Alsershot, 11-48. Mohd Fadzil, A. R. (2009). Spatial Modelling for Distribution of Migration Potential in the Klang Valley (2nd Draft Ph.D Thesis), Centre for Statistical Studies, Faculty of Information Technology and Quantitative Sciences, University of Technology MARA (UiTM), Shah Alam. Plane, D. A., and Rogerson, P. A. (1994). The Geographical Analysis of Population with Application to Planning and Business, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York. Saaty, T. L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw-Hill, New York, NY. Saaty, T. L., and Kearns, K. P. (1985). Analytical Planning: The Organisation of Systems, Pergamon Press, New York, NY. Voogd, H. (1983). Multi-criteria Evaluation for Urban and Regional Planning, Pion Limited, London. RELATED REFERENCES

22. Mohd Fadzil Abdul Rashid abrfazil@Hotmail.com Prof. Dr. Ishak Ab. Ghani ishakg@tmsk.uitm.edu.my Centre for Statistical Studies, Faculty of Information Technology and Quantitative Sciences, University of Technology MARA (UiTM), Shah Alam