1. The Barker Review and London: the Challenge for London Housing Christine Whitehead Department of Economics and LSE London LSE London HEIF Seminar 14 February 2006

2. The Challenge Numbers Affordability Housing Quality The Broader Government Agenda

4. Source: London’s Place in the UK Economy 2004

8. Mix-adjusted House Price Indices 1990-2001 Source: ODPM

9. Table 7: Relative House Prices across Regions 1994-2004 (North = 100) 1994199920032004 East Anglia119130167152 East Midlands110113136129 Greater London174237287257 North100 North West114106112108 South East161182228200 South West129136193175 Wales106102112113 West Midlands118123145135 Yorkshire and Humberside108104114111 Source: CML

10. Source: London’s Place in the UK Economy 2004

13. The Broader Urban Agenda Sustainability Densification Reuse of brownfield sites Mixed communities Infrastructure provision –Physical –Social Thames Gateway

14. The Broader Housing Agenda Safe, secure housing for all Building communities Incentivising social tenants Expanding owner-occupation More effective use of housing assets

15. Numbers Required: The London Plan Aspiration 33,600 net additions per annum 25,700 affordable of which 5,000 intermediate market  Plan: Minimum target 23,000 per annum Maximum reasonable contribution of affordable housing through S106: objective 50% Review in 2006

16. Numbers being Produced Dwellings Completed in London ODPM DataGLA 2000/011442318103 2001/021402118191 2002/031576419747 2003/041939428825 2004/052411225765 Dwellings Started in London 2000/011601522854 2001/021803527772 2002/031583929833 2003/041737728790 2004/052488029128 Source: GLA

17. Numbers of Additional Affordable Homes (000s) 1999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/05 London8.19.17.17.48.88.6 England44.345.029.828.832.633.1 London’ s % 182024262726 Section 106 as % Completions London2321274344 England21 35445055 Source: HIP

18. Affordable Housing Completions by Tenure % RentIntermediate Tenures 2001/022004/052001/022004/05 London75682029 England77651328 Source: HIP

19. Conclusions: the Tensions Massive challenge requiring a step change Economic realities –income elasticities with respect to space –price elasticities of supply –income distribution –macroeconomic cycle Lack of funding for affordable housing and for infrastructure - next CSR very tight; potential for PSG Other agendas Political and democratic will