1. THE ECONOMY: NOW TO THE ELECTION Jeffrey DorfmanAugust 2012

2. The Current State of the US Economy  Retail sales are growing  Incomes are creeping upward  Debt is expanding again  Many agricultural commodity prices are rising  Mostly, the economy is in a holding pattern

3. Retail has been recovering

4. Incomes are rising

5. Consumer debt is rising, too

6. Consumer debt is manageable

7. Employment is weak

8. Unemployment is strong

9. Unemployment is long

10. Consumer confidence is still AWOL

11. Georgia Budget Situation  FY12 revenue was +4.8%, covered the budget  FY13 revenue needs to be +5% to cover budget  Governor asking for more cuts (3%)  For USG, he wants $54M in FY13 and another $54M in FY14 (total annualized cut of $108M)

12. Georgia Budget Situation  For FY12 we had  Individual income taxes +6.3%  Sales taxes+4.8%  Corporate income taxes-12.1%  Gas taxes+9.1%  Governor’s plan is very cautious  Wants to make sure he is not cutting in election year.

13. Commodity Prices DBA = gen ag commodity prices, JJG = grains (C, S, W), COW = cattle and hogs, BAL = cotton prices

14. Ag exports are staying strong

15. Farm credit is healthy

16. Farm income, stable and variable

17. So, all together …  Economy is more good than bad as long as you have a job.  No big changes between now and November  Everybody is waiting to know what the rules of the game will be.