1. Crime theory

2. Why Does Crime Theory Matter?
Explains why crimes tend to occur in predictable patterns
Helps you focus analysis, surveys
Gives you good ideas for solutions
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3. Important Theories (and their implications for problem analysis)
Environmental Criminology
Repeat Victimization
80/20 Rule
Situational Crime Prevention
Displacement and Diffusion of Benefits
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4. Crime Analysis Triangle
Involves the convergence of a motivated offender, a suitable target, and the absence of a capable guardian. Opportunity places a significant role.
Managers: monitor places (Homeowners, Doorway attendants)
Handlers: monitor potential offenders (Parole officers, Parents)
Offender
Place
Opportunity refers to three conditions:
those that induce an individual to commit an offense.
the availability of suitable crime targets.
the degree of risk to exposure.
The arrows indicate control mechanisms on each of these components of the triangle.
Opportunities are highly specific:
For example, if the motivated offender was just a minute later to the parking lot, a gym patron may have been in the parking lot. This would have increased the risk of the opportunity and may prevent the offender from committing the crime. So, understanding the nature of crimes is not just about understanding the offender and the victim but also the time and place (environment) in which the crime occurs.
Crime
Target/Victim
Guardians: monitor targets (Store security)
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5. Opportunity Theories Individual:
Rational choice perspective seeks to understand how the offender makes crime choices, driven by a particular motive within a specific setting, which offers the opportunities to satisfy that motive.
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6. Rational Choice Crime theory 4/28/2017
This is a simple example and the red circle indicates where a crime between these two individuals is likely to occur.
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7. Opportunity Theories Local area:
Crime pattern theory suggests that criminal acts are most likely to occur in areas where the awareness space of the offender intersects with perceived suitable targets.
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8. Crime Pattern Theory
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9. Disorderly Youth in New York City
Scanning
Revealed a high number of neighborhood disruptions and fights because students were being dismissed from two high schools at the same time.
Analysis
Schools’ dismissal procedures contributed to the problem.
Students were dismissed at almost exactly the same time to the same block. Students were full of energy, and petty rivalries soon turned into confrontations.
Response
Spoke with administrators at both schools and persuaded them to stagger dismissal times by 25 minutes and direct departing students in opposite directions.
Assessment
Revealed a 70% reduction in after-school disorder problem.
This is an excellent example how people come together in time and place. By moving the dismissal times the activity is not displace but was eliminated because the opportunity was eliminated.
Scott, M.S. (2001). Disorderly youth in public places (Problem-Oriented Guides for Police Series No. 6). Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services.
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10. Opportunity Theories Society:
Routine activity perspective examines the increased range of opportunities to commit crime by motivated offenders based on changes in the modern world.
Three theories that help us understand how people behave and come together.
What are routine activities?
Leisure activities
Place of business
School
Cohen and Felson (1979)
Explained that changes in crime rates in US from 1947 to 1974 were due to changes in routine activities.
In 1947, more people stayed at home, less opportunity and targets, little absence.
In 1974 more people working, more opportunity and targets, more absence.
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11. Key Factors Related to Assaults in Bars
Young, male, stranger clientele
Drinking without food
Over-service
Crowding
Dance clubs/pick-up places
Aggressive bouncers
These are factors from the POP guide.
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12. Direct Analysis
The lower the food-to-alcohol ratio, the higher the CFS
The higher the level of crowding at a bar, the more likely conflicts will occur
The higher the percentage of young, male, stranger patrons, the higher the CFS rate
How would we measure these?
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13. Repeat Victimization

14. Repeat Victimization
4% of victims account for 44% of all victimizations
Old British joke: one person is being burglarized every 24 seconds in the country – and she’s getting sick of it.
Talked quite a bit about using the concept of repeats to scan for problems, but wanted to spend a little bit of time talking about some of the research that’s been done on repeat victimization and how it can be used to reduce crime and disorder.
If it’s so widespread, why isn’t repeat victimization more obvious?
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15. Repeat Victimization Isn’t Obvious Because…
A) records systems not designed to identify repeats B) transmission of info across shifts is lacking C) underreporting of crime events D) all of the above
Records management systems are design to store info, not for analysis – it can take a fair amount of work on our part to figure out who the repeat victims are.
It can be hard to calculate repeat victimization rates in particular. Sometimes need to look at rolling victimization periods. If DV incident occurs in Feb. 04, need to look back to March 03 to see if repeats occurred in a year’s period, not just back to Jan. 04. Sometimes a two-year period is used to find repeats for relatively rarer crimes.
We also don’t usually have formal processes for sharing information about problems across shifts – just what happened the night before.
D) all of the above
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16. Repeat Victimization Types
Hot Dots
Hot Products
Hot Spots
Hot Targets
The four types of victimization:
1) People as repeat victims (hot dots) – coined by Pease and Laycock, The results from several reports (Pease and Laycock, 1996; Pease, 1998) clearly demonstrate that a single victimization makes an individual and/or location much more likely to experience subsequent crimes.
2) Products as victims (hot products) – coined by Clarke, He defines hot products as “those consumer items that are most attractive to thieves” (Clarke, 1999, p. 1). In addition, he states that in order for an item to be hot it must fit one of the following criteria: the item must be “concealable, removable, available, valuable, enjoyable, and disposable” (Clarke, 1999, pp ).
*** Question: Ask what do you think are the hottest products for a shoplifter? Burglar?
Examples of hot products based on type of crime:
a) For residential burglary, analysis of 1998 BCS data reveal that the most frequently targeted items are cash, videos, jewelry, stereo equipment, televisions, and purses/wallets (Clarke, 1999, p. 5). In U.S. cash, guns, jewelry.
b) For theft from vehicles, 1996 BCS data reveal the hot products to be wheels, engine parts, and stereo equipment, all of which are taken in approximately one-third of the thefts (Clarke, 1999, p. 6).
Clarke, R.V. (1999). Hot products: Understanding, anticipating, and reducing demand for stolen goods (Police Research Series Paper 112). London: Home Office Policing and Reducing Crime Unit.
Other hot products include name brand items like Nike Athletic shoes, etc.
***Question for the class: Can anybody guess the ultimate hottest product?
Let the group give suggestions
***Answer: CASH is the ultimate hot product out!!
3) Aggregation of victims at place (hot spots) – coined by Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger, A hot spot is a cluster of hot dots or in other words a high crime area. They can refer to street corners, neighborhoods, apartments, or city blocks.
Sherman, L., Gartin, P., & Buerger, M. (1989). Hot spots of predatory crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology, 27:27-55.
4) Hot Targets: targets that are frequently victimized but are not included in the definition of hot spot, hot dot, or hot product (Velasco & Boba, 2000).
Velasco, M., & Boba, R. (2000). Tactical Crime Analysis and Geographic Information Systems: Concepts and Examples. Crime Mapping News, Volume 2, Issue 2,pp. 1-4.
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17. Lightning Strikes Twice, But When?
The risk of police being called back to a residence where a domestic dispute has occurred is greatest: A) within 24 hours B) 1 to 3 days C) 4 to 30 days D) 1 to 2 months
Risk is greatest in the period immediately after victimization across crime type and location.
So crime prevention measures need to be in place right after victimization – temporary measures can be used to start. Fixing broken window is a good start – landlords need to do this right away.
A) within 24 hours
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18. Problem Types with Strong Repeat Victimization Patterns
Domestic violence
Bullying
Convenience store robberies
Commercial burglary
Shoplifting
Residential burglary
In addition to domestic violence,
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19. One Burglary Victimization Increases the Risk of Future Events
Once a home has been burglarized, the risk of revictimization increases: A) By a factor of 2 B) By a factor of 4 C) By a factor of 6 D) By a factor of 8
So while being victimized by residential burglary is a negative event, it offers police an opportunity. When we respond to a victim, it’s really important to let them know that they’re now at elevated risk purely because there’s been one burglary of their home, and it’s really important that they take extra precautions immediately. Not the greatest news to share with people, but it is helpful.
The theory is that thieves like to come back because they now know to get into the house, are familiar with the layout and where valuables are kept and may be coming back for things they didn’t get the first time. Researchers have also seen a spike in Res. Burg repeats at around 4 months after first victimization, when items stolen have been replaced.
B) Once hit, a house is 4 times more likely to be burglarized than those never burglarized.
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20. How Focusing on RV Increases Police Effectiveness
Can direct limited resources to places and people most likely to suffer
Can maximize your impact on crime and disorder problems by focusing on those hardest hit
British project reduced repeat residential burglary by 30% with no displacement
Huddersfield project
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21. “80/20 Rule” Expansion of repeat victimization concept.
Small proportion of things are responsible for a large proportion of outcomes.
Examples?
Theoretical concept…not exactly 80/20…
Examples:
Earth’s surface: human life
Earthquakes, damage
People, wealth
Officers, arrests
Locations, crime
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22. Situational Crime Prevention

23. Situational Crime Prevention
Uses the concepts of environmental criminology about why crime occurs in specific settings and seeks solutions that reflect the nature of those settings.
Opportunity is the core and refers to three conditions:
those that induce an individual to commit an offense.
the availability of suitable crime targets.
the degree of risk to exposure.
SCP uses all of the ideas and theories we just heard – shows what can be done to prevent opportunities for crime – want to change individuals thinking and choices.
“SCP is based on theoretical (e.g., routine activity, rational choice) and research approaches that looks at the intersection of potential offenders- opportunity to commit offenses-and at offenders’ decision to commit particular offenses at particular times and places.” According to Clarke and Cornish the core of SCP is concept of opportunity, which refers to the immediate situational components of the context of crime. Thus, the main point or idea of this approach is to reduce the opportunities for crime in specific situations. Further, in order to understand how to reduce opportunities, Cornish and Clarke identified seven conditions and sets of factors that influence an individuals’ decision to commit an offense: generalized needs; perceived solutions to immediate needs; personal evaluations of perceived solutions to immediate needs; personal evaluations of perceived solutions; readiness; and reaction to chance events.
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24. Situational Crime Prevention Works by Opportunity Blocking in 5 Ways
Increasing Perceived Risk
Increasing Perceived Effort
Decreasing Anticipated Rewards
Reducing Provocations
Removing Excuses
The first category focuses on preventing crime by increasing the offender’s perceived effort to commit the crime or making it more difficult for the offender to commit the crime thereby addressing the motivation and rewards of the offender. Five areas of prevention include target hardening (installing door locks), controlling access to facilities (electronic arms), screening exits (doorman), deflecting offenders (closing streets), and controlling tools/weapons (restricting spray paint sales to juveniles).
The second category focuses on increasing the offender’s perceived risks of committing a crime or making the offender “think twice” because he/she might get caught. Five areas of prevention include extending guardianship (carrying a phone), assisting natural surveillance (improve street lighting), reducing anonymity (uniforms), utilizing place managers (two clerks at convenience stores), and using formal surveillance (cameras and burglar alarms).
The third category focuses on reducing the anticipated rewards of the crime or reducing the value of the crime itself. Five areas of prevention include concealing targets (putting valuables in the trunk), removing targets (putting disposable razors in a locked cabinet), identifying property (bicycle licensing), disrupting markets (monitor pawn shops) and denying benefits (ink tags on clothing).
The fourth category focuses on reducing the provocations for committing the crime or changing social and environmental conditions to diminish stress, conflict, and temptation to offend. The five areas of prevention include reducing frustrations and stress (comfortable seating), avoiding disputes (reduce crowding in bars), reducing emotional arousal (eliminate wet t-shirt contest in a bar), neutralizing peer pressure (disperse groups at schools), discouraging imitation (rapid repair of vandalism).
The final category addresses the motivation of the offender and focuses on removing excuses for the crime or changing change social practices to encourage compliance. The five areas of prevention include setting rules (customs forms), posting instructions (“no trespassing”), alerting conscience (roadside speed display), assisting compliance (providing trash cans), and controlling drugs and alcohol (stop serving alcohol in the fourth quarter of a game).
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25. Situational Crime Prevention?
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26. Situational Crime Prevention?
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27. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT...
If many offenders are impulsive and take
advantage of the immediate opportunities
they run across, then which is likely to be
most effective?
A prevention effort that tries to sway
offenders weeks, months, or years before
they confront temptation?
Example of long-term prevention effort that doesn’t work -- DARE OR
Opportunity blocking that is present when
offenders are deciding whether to act?
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28. Potential Outcomes of Crime Prevention Efforts
Displacement is the shifting of crime incidences to other forms, times, and locales.
Key Types of Displacement
Temporal – shift timing of offenses
Spatial – shift from targets in one area to another
Target – shift from one target to a vulnerable one
Tactical – switching previous tactics
the shifting of crime incidences to other forms, times, and locales.
when offenders shift their mode of offending from one form to another in order to replace the blocked opportunity with another unlawful act (Eck, 1993).
Types of displacement include:
Crime type: a shift from one crime type to another (e.g.,
Temporal: a shift in the time of the offenses (e.g., from day time to night time)
Spatial: a shift from targets in one area to those in another area (e.g., prostitutes move to another part of the city)
Target: a shift from one target to a more vulnerable one (e.g., from college men to college women)
Tactical: a shift of tactics (e.g., from conning into someone’s home, to breaking in)
Perpetrator: replacing offenders who have desisted or been arrested (e.g., prostitutes or drug dealers)
Did prostitution really go away when police did a sweep last March or was it displaced to another area or another time of day?
a comprehensive review of crime reduction studies found that no study has found complete displacement.
Why? Given the many forms that it can take, it is “empirically impossible to confirm the existence or magnitude of displacement” (Hesseling, p.198, 1994).
some displacement of activity is possible and crime analysis should examine its likelihood.
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29. Crime Displacement is Overrated
More than 30 national and international studies
Never 1 for 1
We can anticipate some displacement by thinking through a crime problem
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30. Diffusion of Benefits: A Positive Side Effect
Diffusion: the spread of the beneficial influences of an intervention beyond the places which are directly targeted, the individuals who are the subject of control, the crimes which are the focus of intervention of the time periods in which an intervention is brought.
Types of Diffusion
Deterrence
Discouragement
Types of Diffusion
Deterrence: how potential offenders may overestimate the effects of certain situational measures and perceive greater levels of apprehension than what really exists
Discouragement: The previous form, time, or locale the offender routinely uses to obtain his/her reward(s) has changed and they become reluctant to even attempt the crime because of the increased amount of effort involved.
Examples of Diffusion strategies:
Cameras set up in a mall to prevent shoplifting could also reduce property damage by would-be vandals in fear of getting caught. (From p. 129 in Siegel, L. (2001). Criminology. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.)
Drug intervention program in a drug hot spot area of a neighborhood contributing to a decrease in the adjoining neighborhoods.
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31. Let’s review… What do crime analysts do?
What are some of the important theories related to crime analysis?
Think about a crime in your life or personal experience…
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