2. DEFINITION: The effect of a rise in a country’s domestic economy which not only increases trade in domestically produced goods but also increases imports. economytradegoodsimports The ratio of a change in income to the change in exports and domestic investment which have generated that extra income. TRADE MULTIPLIER

3. It is measured for an open economy without taxation as 1/(1−MPC+ MPM), where MPC is the MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO CONSUME and MPM is the MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO IMPORT. The multiplier is crucial to explanations of the path to BALANCE OF PAYMENTS equilibrium and to the transmission of cyclical fluctuations throughout the world. The ratio of a change in income to the change in exports and domestic investment which have generated that extra income. TRADE MULTIPLIER

4. EXPORT MULTIPLIER Exports have a multiplier effect on changes in the national income of a country. The value of foreign trade multiplier depends not only on the marginal propensity to save but also on the marginal propensity to import

5. IMPORT FUNCTION The imports of a country depends on its level of income.The relationship between imports and level of income of a country is called the import function and is written as M=f(Y) Where M-imports Y-Income of a country

6. The Foreign ‘trade Multiplier’ in an open economy: closed economy Assume a closed economy – one that does not engage in international trade: Y = C + I + G Y = C + I + G Now, subtract C and G from both sides of the equation: Y – C – G = I Y – C – G = I The left side of the equation is the total income in the economy after paying for consumption and government purchases and is called national saving, or just saving (S). Substituting S for Y - C - G, the equation can be written as: S = I Saving represents outflow or withdrawal some money from the income flow, while investment is the injection of some money into the income stream.

7. The level of national income is in equilibrium (that is, circular flow of income is constant when outflow from the income stream in the form of savings is equal to the injection of investment expenditure. In an open economy, the role of foreign trade, that is, exports and imports of a country are also to be considered. Imports by consumers of a country represent the expenditure on imported goods by the residents of the country and leads to the leakage of some income from domestic economy.

8. Public saving is the amount of tax revenue that the government has left after paying for its spending. Public saving = (T – G) Surplus and Deficit: –If T > G, the government runs a budget surplus because it receives more money than it spends. –The surplus of T - G represents public saving. –If G > T, the government runs a budget deficit because it spends more money than it receives in tax revenue.

9. Therefore, in addition to saving, imports are other from of leakage that occur in an open economy. On the other hand, exports represent expenditure by the people of foreign countries on the goods produced in the domestic economy and are, like domestic investment, injection into the income stream of an open economy. Therefore, equilibrium level of national income in an open economy is determined at the level at which total leakage, Savings plus imports (S + M) equal total injection, that is, domestic investment plus exports (I + A) into the income stream.

10. Thus, in an open economy, national income is in equilibrium at the level at which S + M = I + X When a change in any of the above four variables occurs, then the change on the left side of the above equation must equal the change on the right side if the new equilibrium. Hence ▲S+ ▲M= ▲I+ ▲X.....................(I) Now, change in saving, ▲S = s. ▲Y Where s = marginal propensity to save and ▲Y = change in national income. Likewise, change in imports, ▲M= m. ▲Y where m marginal propensity to import.

11. Thus, rewriting equation (1) we have s.▲Y + m.▲Y = ▲ I + ▲ X …………..(2) It will be known from equation (2) that change in either investment or exports will cause income to increase by the multiple, 1 / s+m. Thus 1 / s+m is the foreign trade multiplier which is generally denoted by K f Thus, if exports increase by ▲X the national income will rise by ▲X.1 / s + m i.e ▲x. K f

12. Graphic Representation of Foreign Trade Multiplier: Assume that there is no investment, equilibrium level of national income will therefore be determined by consumption (saving) and exports.

13. How the Foreign Trade Multiplier Works? The foreign trade multiplier works in the same way as Keynes’ investment multiplier. When there is increase in exports, it will cause the increase in income of the exporters and those employed in the export industries. They will save some of the increase in their incomes and will spend a good part of the increases in their incomes on consumer goods, both domestic and imported ones. While savings do not generate further income and represent leakage from the income stream, expenditure on imports leads to the increase in the incomes of the foreign countries from which goods are imported.

14. Thus expenditure on imports also represents a leakage from the income stream as far as domestic economy is concerned. But the increased expenditure on domestic goods as a result of increase in exports will go on increasing incomes till the multiplier fully works out. It may be noted that increase in exports of a country can occur due to several reasons. There may be change in tastes or demand of the people of foreign countries for goods of a country.

15. The exporters may meet the demand for exported goods by selling their inventories and enjoy higher incomes. But in the next periods, they will make efforts to increase the production of exported goods and employ more workers. This will generate new income and employment in the export industries. But the working of multiplier does not stop here. Those employed in export industries will spend a good part of their increased incomes on goods produced by other industries and in this way increases in income, production and employment will spread in the whole of the domestic economy.

16. Major Imports of India The rising middle income groups of consumers in India and their spending levels on consumption related items have resulted a faster rising imports demands of the country. Major imports of India include cereals, edible oils, and petroleum products. Imports of principal commodities of the country as in the year 2005-06 in terms of Rs. Crores are as follows:

17. Commodities2005-06 A. Bulk Imports268342.19 Cereals preparations154.47 Fertilisers9158.94 Edible Oil8716.32 Sugar651.8 Pulp and waste paper2471.43 Paper board and mfrs.4347.77 Newsprint1915.35 Crude rubber1813.79 Non-ferrous Metals8157.3 Metalliferrous ores and metal scrap16693.4 Iron and Steel19621.61 Petroleum crude and products194640 B. Pearls, Precious and Semi-Precious stones40469.24 C. Machinery68948.46 D Project Goods3612.53

18. Major Exports of India The faster rising exports sector in India is largely fuelled by the agriculture commodities. Agriculture and allied products, minerals, gems and jewellery, engineering products, and chemical products constitute a larger share in the total exports. Exports of principal commodities of the country as in the year 2005-06 in terms of Rs. Crores are as follows:

19. Commodities2005-06 Plantations3209.16 Agricultural and allied32797 Marine Products6355.84 Ores and Minerals27401.32 Leather and Manufacture11625.53 Gems and Jewellery68830.1 Sports goods585.51 Chemical and related pr68686.36 Engineering goods84867.08 Electronic goods9934.29 Project goods595.48 Textiles67322.25 Handicrafts1817.19 Carpets3669:70 Cotton Raw (including C2791.87 Petroleum products50979.05 Unclassified Exports13331.91

20. Possible positive effects from increased imports and exports