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The Post Financial Crisis World November 2013 Neil Kerry Associate Director, Strategic Relationships For investment professional use only and should not.

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Presentation on theme: "The Post Financial Crisis World November 2013 Neil Kerry Associate Director, Strategic Relationships For investment professional use only and should not."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Post Financial Crisis World November 2013 Neil Kerry Associate Director, Strategic Relationships For investment professional use only and should not be relied upon by private investors

2 Big Picture Themes Beyond Risk On/Risk Off Source: FIL Limited, September 2013. This represents the opinion of the Portfolio Manager. Euro Crisis Here to Stay Further deleveraging is required but there is a contradiction between the need to inflate away debt and pressure to restore competitiveness with Germany. Only political union will ensure the euro survives. We prefer the UK. The Return of Monetary Divergence Monetary policy is diverging with higher US rates in prospect. A prolonged trend of dollar strength will be negative for bonds, commodities and the emerging markets but positive for Japan. Bernanke’s failure to taper creates a tactical back step. Global Debt Crisis Lessons from the 1930s say countries able to foster recovery with easy fiscal and monetary policy stand the best chance growing or inflating their way out of debt. The US is reaching escape velocity first. Japan is following suit. 2

3 The Euro crisis is in remission While growth remains strong 3 Note: this represents the opinion of the Portfolio Manager, September 2013. Economic weakness in the euro periphery Fear of losses on sovereign debt Sovereign and bank funding dries up Asset price falls, credit crunch, more austerity Deflating the periphery back into competitiveness won’t work…

4 A Welcome Return of Longer Business Cycles Global growth re-accelerating 4 Source: Datastream. GDP % to Q1 2013 (ISG calculations). Note: the Lead Indicator (global growth score) is a diffusion index which level varies between +4 and -4. It is pushed forward 6 months on this chart. % G7 GDP Growth Scorecard Index Global growth scorecard, forward 6 months 909294969800020406081012 -4 -3 -2 0 1 2 3 4 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 G7 real GDP growth yoy%(R.H.SCALE)Growth score (forward 6 months)

5 Inflation Pressures Still Muted Looks more like the 1990s – EM take note 5 Source: Datastream. CPI% to August 2013 (ISG calculations). Note: the Lead Indicator (global growth score) is a diffusion index which level varies between +4 and -4. It is pushed forward 6 months on this chart. Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Global inflation scorecard, forward 6 months % G7 CPI Inflation Scorecard Index G7 headline CPI yoy%(R.H.SCALE) Global CPI scorecard

6 Fed QE to raise asset prices, offset fiscal risk QE3 is different… The market smells the exit QE1QE2QE3 Announcement Date25-Nov-200827-Aug-201013-Sep-2012 Programme End Date31-Mar-201030-Jun-2011??? Copper+112%+26%-12% EM Equities+108%+21%+3% Crude Oil+67%+27%+5% US High Yield+79%+11%+7% Australian dollar+51%+25%-11% Global Equities+50%+24%+15% Gold+37%+22%-24% Japan Equities+26%+11%+32% US TIPS+18%+6%-6% US CPI+2%+3%+1% US 3 month money+2%0% US 10 year Treasury-1% -5% USD Index-7%-9%+8% Source: Datastream. This represents the opinion of the Portfolio Manager. 6

7 Fiscal tightening damaged UK growth Policy is now aimed at inflating the housing market  The Financial Times described UK policy as “Rolling Five Year” austerity. We are likely to see an improvement as old-style housing led growth returns. Mid Cap benefits most. 7 Source: The Financial Times, March 2013. This represents the opinion of the Portfolio Manager. OBR Deficit Forecasts

8 Source: FIL Limited, October 2013. For illustrative purposes only. This represents the opinion of the Portfolio Manager. Investment Clock into Overheat Bonds remain a risky asset 8 Inflation Rises Inflation Falls Growth Moves Above Trend Growth Moves Below Trend Overheat Stagflation Reflation Recovery INDUSTRIAL METALS PRECIOUS METALS ENERGY SOFTS GOVERNMENT BONDS CORPORATE BONDS HIGH YIELD BONDS INFLATION LINKED BONDS

9 Investment Clock Video 9

10 Multi Asset: Overweight Stocks vs Bonds Marginal trades into commodities out of property, 10 Source: FIL Limited, this represents the opinion of the Investment Solutions Group. Positions for principal multi asset institutional and retail funds are as of October 2013. Individual fund positions may vary. - - = + ++ Equities Commodities Property (REITs) Bonds Cash

11 Global Equity: Favouring USA & Japan 11 Source: FIL Limited, this represents the opinion of the Investment Solutions Group. Positions for principal multi asset institutional and retail funds are as of October 2013. Individual fund positions may vary - - = + ++ N. America Europe ex UK UK Japan Pacific ex Japan Emerging Markets

12 Source: Datastream, August 2013. This represents the opinion of the portfolio manager. UK RICS and GDP UK, are you ready for 4%? Unleashing the monster – housing boom ahead! 12 82848688909294969800020406081012 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 UK GDP, % year on yearRICS survey, pushed forward 6 months (R.H. scale)

13 Summary 13 Overweight equities, good opportunities Longer economic cycles North America to escape first Dollar to strengthen Japan offers good value Europe still needs to get rid of the debt Taper...the market smells the exit Underweight bonds

14 Why multi asset investing? Source: Datastream and Fidelity from 31.12.2002 to 31.12.2012. Data shows ranking of annual returns for each asset class and the multi asset mix. Cash – GBP 1W LIBID, Global Stocks – MSCI World – TOT RETURN IND (£), Property – FTSE EPRA/NAREIT DEVELOPED $ – TOT RETURN IND (`£), Commodities – DJ UBS-Future Commodity IND TR – RETURN IND (OFCL) (£), Bonds – ML Sterling Broad Market IND TR (£). Multi Asset Mix = Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund Benchmark (difference: Bonds: ML Sterling Broad Market (£) – OT RETURN IND, in place of ML Sterling Large Cap Index). BondsCashGlobal StocksCommoditiesProperty Multi-Asset Mix Ranking2003200420052006200720082009201020112012 10 YR Ann. Vol 1 +26.5%+28.6%+35.7%+24.9%+14.3%+4.8%+23.1%+24.2%+13.5%+23.0% 19.1% 2 +21.1%+8.3%+29.0%+6.6%+10.3%+4.3% +20.6% +20.5%+2.0%+11.7% 15.6% 3 +11.9%+7.9%+24.6%+4.6%+5.8%-8.9%+12.1%+16.8% +0.5% +7.3% 14.4% 4 +11.5%+6.8%+16.9%+4.6%+5.5%-10.9%+5.9%+12.3%-5.1%+6.1% 7.3% 5 +4.0%+4.3%+8.3% +0.7% +3.3%-19.5%+3.7%+7.9%-6.2%+0.4% 4.8% 6 +3.5% +1.8% +4.6%-10.5% -8.5%-27.6% +0.6% +0.4%-12.7%-5.4% 0.6% 14

15 Growth of managed solutions Gross retail sales into IMA Mixed & Flexible Investment Sectors Source: IMA to 31/12/2012. Total of IMA Mixed Investment 0-35%/20-60%/40-85% Share and Flexible Investment sectors 15

16 Not all managed funds are the same Source: Morningstar Direct: Basis: bid-bid, net income reinvested at UK basic rate of tax to 31/10/2013 A fund labelled as ‘balanced’ may not be suitable for a customer assessed as having a ‘balanced’ attitude to risk FSA FG11 05 16

17 Meeting your challenges head on FundsNetwork TM NavigatorDriver Robust, repeatable, scalable investment process Adviser fee ready. Competitively priced funds – from just 0.55%p.a. Enables focus on relationships, planning, practice management & development Easy to use online risk profiler assesses attitude to risk Help to demonstrate the value of your advice. Annual review pack to ensure ongoing suitability Help to demonstrate the value of your advice. Annual review pack to ensure ongoing suitability Aligned to clients’ individual needs. Integral strategic and tactical asset allocation. Aligned to clients’ individual needs. Integral strategic and tactical asset allocation. Client suitability Segmentation/business model Client reports, updates and reviews Ease of use and value for money 17

18 1. Choose from 5 risk levels The Navigator Proposition 18 DefensiveStrategicGrowthAdventurousWorld 2. Choose from 3 types of architecture Multi Asset Allocator Index-Tracking Multi Asset Best of Fidelity (Internal Architecture) Multi Asset Open Best of the Market (Open Architecture) Store of Value Assets Bonds Cash Growth Assets Equities Commodities Real Estate Source: FIL Limited. For illustrative purposes only.

19 Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund performance in major up/down equity markets Source: Morningstar Direct. Basis: bid-bid, net income reinvested at UK Basic rate of tax to 31/10/2013. FTSE All Share is not the index of the Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund but is intended to define major up and down periods in equity markets since the fund was launched (22/01/2007) 19

20 Keeping you and your clients informed Monthly PDF and video updates for you and your clients available on fundsnetwork.co.uk/navigator Regular live webcasts Annual review pack to check ongoing suitability Client-ready quarterly reports, personalised from adviser and sent electronically to your document area on FundsNetwork for your exclusive use Adviser toolkit and suitability letters 20

21 What makes us different? Fidelity’s Investment Solutions Group has 295 years’ combined experience in multi asset investing and manages over £28bn* All of our multi asset funds are actively managed using models developed over 20 years and enhanced by in-house global research Proprietary strategic and tactical asset allocations We understand that your clients want to achieve their investment goals without being exposed to undue risk or short-term performance fluctuations Proven experience in most market conditions 22 11 33 44 55 * Source: Assets and resources as at 30/9/13 are those of FIL Limited except combined experience which is at 29/7/13 21

22 Important information This presentation is for Investment Professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. It may not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission. No statements or representations made in this presentation are legally binding on Fidelity or the recipient. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and clients may get back less than they invest. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The price of bonds is influenced by movements in interest rates, changes in the credit rating of bond issuers, and other factors such as inflation and market dynamics. In general, as interest rates rise the price of a bond will fall (and vice versa). Bonds with a longer time to maturity are generally affected to a greater degree. The risk of default is based on the issuer's ability to make interest payments and to repay the loan at maturity. Default risk may therefore vary between different government issuers as well as between different corporate issuers. Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus, which is available along with the Key Investor Information Document, current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge on request by 0800 368 1732. Issued by FIL Investments International, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment, the Fidelity Worldwide Investment logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. RM1113/2427/SSO/0214 22


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