1. European Recovery: The Role of Germany Madrid, September 30, 2014 Dr. Michael Dauderstädt

2. Europe‘s Growth compared 2008=100 2014: USA: 109,6 UK: 104,9 Eurozone: 102,3 EU: 104,6 Germany: 109,3 World: 129,8 Source: IMF

3. Nominal GDP-Growth (in €) 2000-20082008-20092009-2012 Latvia191,7-18,1+ 26,7 Lithuania180,6-16,8+ 31,0 Estonia168,9-14,0+ 25,0 Poland93,9-14,7+ 22,2 Romania261,1- 15,4+ 12,7 Hungary114,3-13,3+ 7,7 Czech Republic138,7-8,1+ 7,4 Bulgaria170,6017,4 Slovenia70,4-6,0-0,6 Slovakia190,2-2,513,8 GIPS: Greece65,1-1,4-16,1 Ireland44,2-10,7-0,3 Portugal29,6-1,9 Spain53,2-4,6-2,2 New Member States (CEE)158,0-10,9+16,3 12 Richer Member States30,5-6,4+ 10,5 EU 2731,6-6,4+ 8,9

4. Germany‘s responsibility No common approach to the banking crisis No common approach to the recession Blocking ECB and EU when the Greek bond panic emerged (spring 2010) No lender of last resort, no euro bonds Reluctance towards rescue operations Insistence on austerity

5. Germany‘s trade with „problem“countries (percentage change 2008-13) CountryGerman Exports German Imports Balance France6,91,119,0 Greece-40,9-12,1-50,6 Ireland-3,4-44,3-65,8 Italy-14,20,7-60,2 Portugal-21,826,1-69,6 Spain-26,614,4-65,2

6. Germany‘s changing trade pattern Share of German total exports Share of German total imports Share of Germany‘s total export surplus 200820132008201320082013 Europe74,668,570,570,793,258,4 EU63,657,057,357,492,055,0 Eurozone42,936,839,238,360,030,4 Spain4,32,92,6 12,33,9

7. German FDI abroad (Mio €) Target area2010201120122013Growth World95370582476195843344-54,6 Europe65831404125435021169-67,8 EU60510355925101415890-73,7 Euro area4402435008347346230-85,8 Spain15622491232548,8 Caution: Luxemburg and Netherlands dominate EU and Eurozone amounts

8. Migration (20 EU countries)

9. Migration 20 EU countries (Spain not included): Balance moved from -9442 in 2008 to +216220 in 2012 Growth of entries: 73.1% Growth of exits: 3.6% Greece: Entry growth: 290.9%; exit growth :-26.5% Portugal:Entry growth: 94%; exit growth :- 20.6%

10. German peculiarities Inflation panic (the wrong shadow of 1923) Obsession with competitiveness Export orientation German surplus Loss in foreign investment position (devaluing accumulated surpluses) Germany should support a less supply- side-biased European growth policy

11. Germany‘s Trade Development Westgermany Unified Germany

12. Sector accounts in Spain (in % of disposable income)

13. Sector accounts in Germany (in % of disposable income)

14. Towards a European Recovery Monetray policy must remain expansionary and fight deflation Banking sector must be cleaned up Rebalancing imbalances Fiscal stance must be corrected More European fiscal power: Euro bonds, european taxes; European unemployment insurance European investment: energy, transport

15. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Abt. Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik 15 Thank you for your attention