1. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 1www.estm.biz Applying Six Sigma to Software Development: A Practical Guide Dr. Bill Eventoff ESTM Associates, Inc. 8 Morningside Drive ♦ Toms River, NJ 08755 (732) 341-2951 ♦ bille@estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

2. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 2www.estm.biz Motivation Software Development Large Opportunity for Improvement Approximately 25% of software projects are canceled Average project exceeds –Costs by 90% –Schedule by 120% Risk of project failure increases with size © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc. Six Sigma Well-defined improvement approach Impressive track record of achievements Adaptable

3. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 3www.estm.biz But Software Development is Not a Typical Application Process Oriented, but –Inputs often ill-defined –Outputs often difficult to fully evaluate –Performance highly influenced by human factors (e.g., knowledge, skills, experience, etc.) Significant natural variation © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

4. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 4www.estm.biz Key Factors in Software Project Failures Risk Factor% of “MIS” Projects Requirements Failures Creeping Requirements80% Expectation Failures Excessive Schedule Pressure65% Execution Failures Low Quality60% Cost Overruns55% Inadequate Configuration Management 50%

5. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 5www.estm.biz Applying Six Sigma to Software Development © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

6. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 6www.estm.biz Fuzzy Front End Six Sigma DFSS © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

7. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 7www.estm.biz Balance the VOC and the VOB Voice of the Customer Voice of Business

8. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 8www.estm.biz VOC – Voice of the Customer Understand Internal and External Customers and Target Environment © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

9. www.estm.biz9 Building a Customer Matrix Segments Types of Customers Lead User Demanding Lost Lead Had But Lost U.S. Europe Asia © 2002 Six Sigma Advantage, LLC

10. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 10www.estm.biz VOC – Voice of the Customer Understand Internal and External Customers and Target Environment Identify, Characterize and Verify Critical to Quality (CTQ) Requirements –Interviews, focus groups, use cases, etc. –Preference surveys and Kano analysis © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

11. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 11www.estm.biz Kano Analysis Dissatisfiers (or basic requirements) –“Must be” requirements –These features must be present to meet minimal expectations of customers Satisfiers (or variable requirements) –The better or worse you perform on these requirements, the higher or lower will be your rating from customers Delighters (or latent requirements) –These are features, factors, or capabilities that go beyond what customers expect, or that target needs customers can’t express themselves © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

12. www.estm.biz12 The Kano Model How the Customer Feels Neutral Satisfier Must-Be Delighter Level of Functionality Delivered for a particular requirement Low to None High Delighted Very Dissatisfied Satisfied, but I expect it this way I can live with it © 2002 Six Sigma Advantage, LLC

13. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 13www.estm.biz VOC Output: Prioritized CTQs RequirementUse-caseKanoPriority Manage database interfaces Verifying data content integrity S4 Manage Network I/O Moving client- server data M3 Optimizing data transfer D3.5 Provide real-time user access Minimizing system response time M5 © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

14. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 14www.estm.biz VOC – Voice of the Customer Understand Internal and External Customers and Target Environment Identify, Characterize and Verify Critical to Quality (CTQ) Requirements –Interviews, focus groups, use cases, etc. –Preference surveys and Kano analysis Establish measures for CTQ requirements © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

15. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 15www.estm.biz VOC Output: Fully Characterized CTQs Requirements Use-Case KanoPriority Measure Manage Database Interfaces MinimumAverageStrong Verifying data content integrity S4 ≤ 1 record/1,000≤ 1 record/10,000≤ 1 record/100,000 Manage Network I/O Moving client- server data M3 100 records/min.500 records/min.800 records/min. Optimizing data transfer D3.5 Hooks for user supplied compression Top 5 compression schemes supplied Top 10+ compression schemes supplied and fully integrated © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

16. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 16www.estm.biz VOB - Voice of Business Analyze Design Options –Estimate customer satisfaction –Level of effort –Capability to deliver –Balance VOC and VOB © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

17. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 17www.estm.biz Analyze Design Options RequirementUse-CaseKanoPriorityBaseFullBase Effort Full Effort Manage database interfaces Verifying data content integrity S41310001500 Manage Network I/O Moving client- server data M31355007500 Optimizing data transfer D3.5131200018000 Customer Sat. Score Effort Score Design Options Level of Effort © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

18. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 18www.estm.biz Analyze Design Options RequirementUse-CaseKanoPriorityBaseFullBaseE ffort Full Effort Manage database interfaces Verifying data content integrity S41310001500 Manage Network I/O Moving client- server data M31355007500 Optimizing data transfer D3.5131200018000 Customer Sat. Score Effort Score = F(Kano, Priority, Feature Level) © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

19. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 19www.estm.biz Analyze Design Options RequirementUse-CaseKanoPriorityBaseFullBaseE ffort Full Effort Manage database interfaces Verifying data content integrity S41310001500 Manage Network I/O Moving client- server data M31355007500 Optimizing data transfer D3.5131200018000 Customer Sat. Score Effort Score = ∑ Effort Estimates © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

20. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 20www.estm.biz Concept Selection © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

21. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 21www.estm.biz Computing Productivity Historically, for each project we should know Size, Effort, and Duration )( )( / /34 31 * (SLOC) yearsDuration B StaffYearsEffort Size PP      © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

22. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 22www.estm.biz Schedule Compression 3 )( )( torelates yearsDuration StaffYearsEffort MBI Buildup RateEquation Output 1Slow7.3 2Mod. Slow14.7 3Moderate26.9 4Rapid55 5Very Rapid89 Manpower Buildup Index, MBI © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

23. www.estm.biz23 Rayleigh Curve © 2002 Six Sigma Advantage, LLC

24. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 24www.estm.biz MBI = 1 (Slow)Concept 1 Duration (months)15.2 Effort (staff months)77.3 Released Defects14.1 Effort Cost$966,250 Duration Adjustment Defect Repair Cost$239,700 Net Value$19,482,050 MBI = 3 (Moderate)Concept 1 Duration (months)13 Effort (staff months)119.4 Released Defects267 Effort Cost$1,492,500 Duration Adjustment$1,400,000 Defect Repair Cost$453,900 Net Value$20,141,600 Balancing VOC and VOB Business Value$20,000,000 Feature Value$688,000 © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

25. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 25www.estm.biz Balancing VOC and VOB MBI = 5 (Very Rapid)Concept 1 Duration (months)11.7 Effort (staff months)220.7 Released Defects508 Effort Cost$2,758,750 Duration Adjustment$1,400,000 Defect Repair Cost$663,600 Net Value$18,665,650 MBI = 3 (Moderate)Concept 1 Duration (months)13 Effort (staff months)119.4 Released Defects267 Effort Cost$1,492,500 Duration Adjustment$1,400,000 Defect Repair Cost$453,900 Net Value$20,141,600 Business Value$20,000,000 Feature Value$688,000 © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

26. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 26www.estm.biz VOB - Voice of Business Analyze Design Options –Estimate customer satisfaction –Level of effort –Capability to deliver –Balance VOC and VOB Select Concept and Approach –Flesh out concept QFD FEMA –Verify and refine approach Defect analysis Schedule simulation © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

27. www.estm.biz27 Capability to Deliver on Time Probabilistic Scheduling Frequency Chart Certainty is 94.90% from -Infinity to 289.17 days.000.007.014.021.028 0 7 14 21 28 250.00262.50275.00287.50300.00 1,000 Trials 4 Outliers Forecast: F52 How much confidence should we have in the schedule? … At a 95% confidence level latest mid March, 2003 (+ 43 days) earliest mid January, 2003 (- 15 days) Upper Spec Limit (USL) © 2002 Six Sigma Advantage, LLC

28. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 28www.estm.biz Process Improvement Standard Six Sigma DMAIC Process © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

29. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 29www.estm.biz Application to Software X Prerequisites: Processes must be well defined © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

30. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 30www.estm.biz DMAIC Example Problem Statement –Post release maintenance has increased by 30% since the end of last fiscal year and is now limiting new product development. Goal Statement –Reduce post release maintenance by 40% by the end of Q4’2003. © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

31. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 31www.estm.biz Measure – Data Collection Total Problems Fixed Prior to Release Per Project –Pre-Release Defects: defects found and fixed during development and testing Total Post Release Problems Per Project –Released Defects: defects reported by customers Types of Post Release Problems –All projects –Per project © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

32. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 32www.estm.biz Analysis Pre-Release Defects = f(Size) © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

33. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 33www.estm.biz Analysis Escaped defects proportional to pre-release defects –No significant variation in Defect Containment Effectiveness DCE = Pre-Release Defects/(Pre-Release Defects + Escaped Defects) © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

34. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 34www.estm.biz Analysis Most Escaped Defects are Code Related © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

35. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 35www.estm.biz Improve Improve the Effectiveness of Code Inspections –Factors Size of unit (LOC) Preparation time (LOC/hour) Inspection time (LOC/hour) Number of reviewers –Measure Number of identified defects © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

36. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 36www.estm.biz Improve Improve the Effectiveness of Code Inspections –Conduct DOE Determine most effective combination of factors –Verify DOE results Pilot test using real project © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

37. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 37www.estm.biz Control Establish Performance Standard for Code Inspections –Defects/KLOC Monitor Performance –Take action when unacceptable performance observed © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

38. ESTM Associates, Inc. Excellence in Science, Technology and Management 38www.estm.biz Questions © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.