1. JASON HU / April 2016 University of Nottingham

2. 1 A DPP Election Rally

3. 2 A KMT Election Rally

4. 3 Jason Hu speaks at a rally

5. 4 The Trends: KMTDPPPFPOthers ① Apple Daily Poll

6. 5 ② United Daily Poll The Trends: KMTDPPDTPOthers

7. 6 ③ China Times Poll The Trends: KMTDPPDTPOthers

8. 7 ④ Liberty Times Poll The Trends: KMTDPPDTPOthers

9. 8 ⑤ TVBS Poll The Trends: KMTDPPDTPOthers

10. 9 The Results (1): 2016 Presidential Election

11. 10 The Results (2): Seats in t he Legislative Yuan DPP

12. 11 The Results (3): Seats in the Legislative Yuan YearKMTDPPOthers 200881275 201264409 2016356810 ( Total seats: 113; Majority seats: 57 )

13. 12 The Results (4): Analysis DPP in power Absolute control of both the government & the Legislative Yuan The first female PresidentThe future of KMT in doubt

14. 13

15. 14 The 4 A “WANTED” LIST A capable & understanding leader A more efficient Legislative Yuan A government that will improve the domestic situation A better China strategy

16. 15 ① A Capable & Understanding Leader

17. 16 ② A more Efficient Legislative Yuan

18. 17 １.Pressing Concerns with Domestic Economy 2015 GDP growth rate in Taiwan was 0.8%, the lowest number in recent years. The premier-designate was announced on March 14, an attempt “ to save the economy. ” President-elect Tsai Ing-wen announced plans to establish a “ Quasi-Sovereign Wealth Fund ” geared at driving growth in five targeted industries: biotech, green energy, precision machinery, IT and defense. Concrete initiatives to improve the economy and government finance are still unclear. ③ A Government that will Improve Domestic Situation

19. 18 2. Lingering Doubts about Energy Issues President-elect Tsai Ing-wen announced during her campaign that, if elected, she will make Taiwan a “nuclear- free” country within 10 years. There are 4 nuclear power plants, with 3 in operation providing 18% of Taiwan’s electricity. The general concern is that within a decade, Taiwan will have insufficient power supply and high utility prices. No convincing solutions have been proposed. ③ A Government that will Improve Domestic Situation

20. 19 3.Welfare: Inadequate Finances Like many other countries, Taiwan does not have a sufficient budget for a satisfactory welfare program. Social pensions, including the civil servant retirement fund, are all facing bankruptcy. Taiwan is moving from an “aging society” to an “aged society,” increasing the demand for long-term care. President-elect Tsai Ing-wen vowed to initiate problem- solving “reforms” after her inauguration. ③ A Government that will Improve Domestic Situation

21. 20 ④ A Better China Strategy THE MOST CRUCIAL & COMPREHENSIVE ISSUE

22. 21 Background Basic Positions Vital Questions

23. 22 BACKGROUND Civil War 1927→1937/1946→1949Confrontation & Conflicts 1950→1992Talks & Engagements1993/Singapore2015/Ma-Xi meeting 2016 → ？

24. 23 BASIC POSITIONS KMT Maximum possible engagement, to eliminate hostility, rule out Taiwan independence Three Noes, i.e. no unification, no independence and no use of force. 。 DPP Minimum possible engagement, to maintain autonomy and to reduce danger and dependence, maintain the option of Taiwan independence. CCP Maximum possible engagement, hopefully leading to eventual unification. Will not tolerate Taiwan independence.

25. 24 VITAL QUESTION Ⅰ : Sovereignty Dispute China or Taiwan?the “ 1992 Consensus ”One China with two interpretationsDPP Party Charter maintains the option of Taiwan independenceWill the new government accept the “1992 Consensus”?All waiting for the May 20 inauguration speech

26. 25 VITAL QUESTION II: War or Peace The question of war and peaceA civil war to end without truce or ceasefire agreement?All parties (and non-parties) hope to maintain peaceResurgence of militant voices?Cold war or cold peace?

27. 26 VITAL QUESTION III: Trade Cross-strait trade in 2015 reached nearly US$160 billion, more than 30% of Taiwan’s total trade, accounting for approximately 4% of the mainland’s total trade. Taiwan investment in mainland China reached US$15.5 billion by 2015. In 2015, Taiwan investment in the mainland stood at roughly US$4.4 billion, only lower than that of Hong Kong (US$9.2 billion) and Singapore (US$7 billion). However, Taiwan’s investment in the mainland is still ahead of Japan (US$3.2 billion) and the U.S. (US$2.6 billion).

28. 27 True diplomacy: To Be or Not To Be VITAL QUESTION IV: Diplomatic Struggle Difficult to separate from the sovereignty controversy. Taiwan’s diplomatic struggle has been a fact of life as a result of cross-strait relations between 1949 and 2007. Countries with diplomatic relationship

29. 28 When Beijing implemented its “Open Door” economic reforms in the 1980s, Taiwanese businessmen began to enter the mainland. By 2015, Taiwanese businessmen in the mainland totaled approximately 190,000, employing 1.81 million workers. Total investment by these businessmen represents 9.3% of China’s total FDI. What is to be done? To assist and protect Taiwanese businessmen in the mainland? To persuade them to come home? VITAL QUESTION V: Taiwan Businessmen in Mainland China VITAL QUESTION V: Taiwan Businessmen in Mainland China

30. 29 VITAL QUESTION VI: Mainland Tourists to Taiwan VITAL QUESTION VI: Mainland Tourists to Taiwan Started in 2008→329,2042011→1.78 million, 2012→2.58 million2014→3.98 million, 2015→4.18 million In 2015, the total number of inbound tourists in Taiwan exceeded 10 million, of which 40.07% were from the mainland. Taiwan’s international tourism receipts in 2015 reached US$14.8 billion. Total number of Mainland tourists to reduce?

31. 30 VITAL QUESTION VII: The South China Sea The South China Sea has been a hotbed of sovereignty disputes and tensions for some decades, especially in 2015. The Republic of China (Taiwan) has effectively controlled Taiping Island since the end of World War Ⅱ, and faces competing territorial claims by the PRC, the Philippines and Vietnam. Confrontation and competition between the U.S. and the PRC became very visible in 2015, as the U.S. found PRC’s construction work and military presence on PRC-controlled islands unacceptable.

32. 31 VITAL QUESTION VII: The South China Sea In 2015, staff of President-elect Tsai Ing-wen indicated in Washington, D.C. that once in power, the new government might consider giving up Taiwan’s claim of its islands in the South China Sea. This aroused suspicion from Beijing that Taiwan is likely moving toward de facto “independence.” As of April 2016, President-elect Tsai Ing-wen has said that she has no plan to change the status quo in the area.

33. 32 Beyond Inauguration New Government → New Wine? Mainland Issue: Crucial & Comprehensive May 20 Inauguration Speech → The “Pandora’s” Box Status Quo → It takes two to tango! A Bumpy Road Ahead?

34. 33