1. Rex Brynen, McGill University Thomas Fisher, Imaginetic Vince Carpini, Novartis Canada SERIOUS GAMES FOR POLICY ANALYSIS

2. WHO ARE WE? Rex Brynen Department of Political Science McGill University Middle East politics and conflict resolution peace, stabilization, and humanitarian operations intelligence analysis serious games senior editor, PAXsims Global Affairs Canada, Privy Council Office, World Bank, United Nations agencies, others Tom Fisher Imaginetic game designer and facilitator Canadian Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response Training Programme; World Bank; Egmont Group (financial intelligence) Vince Carpini Novartis Canada Coordinator, Drug Regulatory Affairs Operations game designer and facilitator

3. SIMULATION AND GAMING Simulations and games can be used to: – foster innovative thinking – pre-test ideas – address complex policy challenges

4. WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO? Introduction to gaming and policy analysis. – fundamentals and approaches Identify policy topics suitable for gaming. – form groups Develop a game concept. – questionnaire and facilitators to assist Present ideas to group. – discussion and vote

5. FUNDAMENTALS OF ANALYTICAL GAMING 1.What is the topic and purpose of the game? 2.Who are the participants (and audience)? 3.Which roles and functions need to be represented? 4.Which general game approach will you use (and why)? 5.How will you foster reflection and analysis? Collect data? How will this be used? 6.What resources will you require?

6. TOPIC AND PURPOSE 1. What is the topic and purpose of the game? “How might we achieve objective X?” “What would we do if X happened?” “What is the best allocation of resources, given challenges X, Y, Z?” team-building/networking/intellectual cross-training for future problem-solving Is a game really the best way of doing this? – Weigh resource/time demands, alternatives, and opportunity costs. Games are weak predictors, but role-playing generates greater predictive insight than unaided individual analysis or “role-thinking” (Green 2002, Green and Scott 2009). Group assessments tend to out-perform individual assessments (Tetlock and Gardener 2015). "One thing a person cannot do, no matter how rigorous his analysis or heroic his imagination, is to draw up a list of things that would never occur to him.” (Thomas Schelling). Games provide an opportunity to collectively identify new ideas, opportunities, and challenges. Policy gaming can be an especially useful tool for exploring issues that have both material (technical, resource) and human (process, political) components.

7. WHO ARE PARTICIPANTS (AND AUDIENCE) 2. Who will be involved? How many participants? What expertise is required? Who needs to be engaged? Who do you want/need at the table to assure policy impact? (Whose participation needs to be handled carefully?) How long will they be needed? Beware the effects of hierarchy when crowd-sourcing ideas. Participation will also be shaped by the particular game design adopted.

8. ROLES AND FUNCTIONS 2. Which roles and functions will be represented? Need to balance: – purpose of game – practical resources (participants, time, space) – avoiding excessive complexity

9. WHICH GAME DESIGN? 2. Which game design will be used? Roleplaying – exercise – seminar game – adjudication system? – hybrid approaches Matrix games Boardgames Digital games The game model itself is not intended to produce the answer. Rather, it is discussion, interaction, and reflection by the participants that generates insight and ideas.

10. GAME DESIGN: ROLEPLAYING Roleplaying participants given a briefing (capabilities, scenario), and interact exercise: perform some actual functions, generally semi-real time seminar game: players discuss responses to situation, results are determined, then scenario advanced to T+1 games can be in person or digitally distributed (ranging from simulation support platforms like ICONS to telephone, email, etc.) adjudication can be using rules/models/algorithms (“rigid kriegsspiel”) or umpire interpretation (“free kriegsspiel”) or a combination of the two

11. GAME DESIGN: ROLEPLAYING Roleplaying hybrid models combine several elements, for example: – Chatham House Israeli-Palestinian negotiation exercise – Exeter/UNRWA policy simulation – Chatham House refugee compensation simulation

12. GAME DESIGN: MATRIX GAMES Matrix games* (* don’t involve a matrix, or Matrix Games™) narrative-based multiplayer games in which: – participants argue for a course of action – players debate major enabling or constraining factors – outcome determined (adjudication) – narrative and game continues game components as aide-memoire ISIS Crisis (intel analysis, military OR)ISIS Crisis (mass atrocity prevention)Vancouver Olympics (security planning)

13. GAME DESIGN: BOARDGAMES Boardgames (and similar component-based systems) useful when you wish to force players to confront opportunity costs and resource limitations manual games are easily modified and adapted challenging to design – modelling cause-and-effect in the rules/game system – balancing fidelity with playability – second golden rule of game design: PLAGIARIZE Emergotrain System AFTERSHOCK Healthy Heart Hospital HOSPEX (David Vassallo)

14. GAME DESIGN: DIGITAL GAMES Digital Games enable more complex modelling also challenging to design require hard-coding of game design – time, money, harder to modify – but you can do quite a lot with an Excel spreadsheet… importance of human interaction HealthBound (2009) Brynania (humanitarian assistance model)

15. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Game design – the design phase itself can generate significant insights Prebriefing – orient participants (but don’t over-sensitize them) Data collection – How will you know what happened in the game? Debriefing – essential part of analytical gaming – critical reflection – feedback to game facilitators (who may have a different perspective) Action – what is the appropriate follow-up?

16. RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS Time Space Support personnel Background/briefing/inject material IT support Other materials

17. QUESTIONS?

18. SERIOUS GAMES FOR POLICY ANALYSIS Game ideas? – form groups Identify the fundamentals. – questionnaire Develop game concept Brief-back to workshop (c11h20) – four minute pitch – vote on favourite!

19. EXTRA SLIDES

20. SIMULATION AND GAMING The use of simulation for medical training is well established…

21. SIMULATION AND GAMING …as is the use of simulation exercises for emergency planning...

22. SIMULATION AND GAMING …and disaster preparedness.

23. SIMULATION AND GAMING Simulations and games can also be used, however, to: – foster innovative thinking – pre-test ideas – address complex policy challenges

24. (WAR)GAMING INNOVATION US Department of Defence One of the world’s largest, most complex organizations – $600+ billion budget, 3.2 million personnel (including reserves) – 3 ½ times larger than the UK NHS, 10x larger than the entire United Nations system

25. SIMULATION AND GAMING In order to “effectively pursue an innovative… strategy avoid operational and technological surprise, and make the best of limited resources, we need to reinvigorate, institutionalize, and systematize wargaming “When done right, wargames spur innovation and provide a mechanism for addressing emerging challenges, exploiting new technologies, and shaping the further security environment. The can potentially make the difference between wise and unwise investment trajectories and make our forces more successful in future conflicts” “Mid-term wargaming will focus on the development of new capabilities as well as operational and organizational concepts… with an eye to incorporating innovative approaches or technologies into the future force and identifying potential portfolio offsets.” Gaming “across different time horizons will also serve a crucial educational function by bringing together different groups of defense professionals to think critically about future challenges.” future health services and gaming games public health services health in facing future needs. efficiencies and savings” health gaming.”

26. GAMING INNOVATION

27. GAMING AND INNOVATION What transitional challenges will a post-Qaddafi government face? (TNC/UN) What challenges will arise in implementing an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, and how can these be addressed? (Chatham House/UK FCO/US DoS) What negotiating language might bridge Israeli-Palestinian normative differences on the refugee issue? (Chatham House/UK FCO/US DoS) How might issues of Palestinian refugee compensation be addressed? (Chatham House/UK FCO/US DoS) How might a major UN agency respond to growing humanitarian crisis, political complexity, and limited resources? (Exeter/UN) Are current defence planning scenarios appropriate for evaluating capability needs? (DND) What are the key drivers of the conflict with ISIS? (various) What might be the effect of alternative policies in Syria? (US HMM) How can mass atrocities be prevented? (MIGS) How would a UK NHS Children’s Hospital deal with the zombie apocalypse?