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Report 74.0 - 4 th Quarter Release - Cape Town 26 February 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "Report 74.0 - 4 th Quarter Release - Cape Town 26 February 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Report 74.0 - 4 th Quarter Release - Cape Town 26 February 2014

2 General Local Developments: Growing Economic Pressures The Global economic concerns linked to emerging markets resulted in the Rand plummeting against all major trading currencies. This will impact on paper prices and ultimately the cost of print title production. While the swift response by the Reserve Bank to support the Rand by adjusting the Repo rate up by 0.5% brought some recovery, it did so by subduing local consumer spending. CPI results have just been announced and these are tracking slightly higher than expected at 5.7%. Finally with the Elections announced for May we can expect: Increased political posturing, Continued Rand instability, And no doubt one or two political parties exploring alternative media as a result of unpaid bills from the previous Municipal Elections in 2011. Get the previous debts paid and thereafter money up front!

3 Local Developments: SAARF concerns. With 2014 upon the industry, all eyes are now clearly focused on 2015 and the departure of NAB from the current SAARF structure. And while progress is being made, the pace is slow. Marketers remain upset and suspicious of media owner actions as a consequence of the manner in which NAB departed. Further, the mutually beneficial relationship that spurred co-operation between marketers, media agencies and media owners will take time and positive actions to restore. If readership is to be protected then collectively we all need to focus on the future and move forward without the baggage of the 1% MIT levy. The proposed establishment survey plus add-on remains the next best solution to the original AMPS approach. This change will result in a new currency plus the real likelihood of supplements etc, being dropped from the Print Audience Measurement Survey (PAMS).

4 International Developments: UK Fashion Magazines reap benefit of print As many UK-based magazine publishers launch digital versions, it seems that the appetite for digital does not have mass appeal. UK magazine publishers see the recently released 2014 ABC as a step forward as this release reflects both print and digital circulation…ADDED together, ie benefitting from duplication However, anyone looking for evidence of readers migrating in an orderly manner from paper to point-and-click will be disappointed. Titles with the highest proportion of digital circulation were mainly male interest, eg:T3 (42%), Stuff (19%), GQ (10%), Top Gear (9%) and the Economist (6%) – and some of the other percentages hinted at less than transformational change. Beyond the business class lounge neither readers nor advertisers seem to have a massive appetite for a new form of delivery. As they move from one format to another, or contemplate a future where the complexity increases, it is clear that the revenue doesn't move from print! Publishers (Fashion titles in particular) have noted to their surprise, that advertisers still appear to believe in the charisma of paper.

5 News UK calls for transparency over audience figures News UK has called for the introduction of a new method to measure newspaper audiences that aggregates and de-duplicates readership across all platforms - print, website, mobile and tablet. The digital revolution allows newspapers to deliver readers greater choice, functionality and convenience than ever before. The technology that was once viewed as causing the demise of newspapers is now providing the foundation for new growth and greater engagement than ever. News UK has said, “Let's hear no more about the death of newspapers, let's celebrate the future of news brands. Our industry is entering a new age, but it's exciting, and not one we should be scared of.“ The challenge of course is finding a mathematical approach that removes the duplication from merely adding up audiences. But where there is a will there’s a way.

6 In the dark UK winter, Boardsheet ABC sales have gone … up? New UK circulation figures for January make surprisingly cheery reading – especially for broadsheet publishers Popular papers felt the most pain (8% down year-on-year) while the quality press dropped only 4% and major performers in that field did markedly better: Of course promotions, new sections and all that jazz have a part to play; they put temporary wind in quite a few sails. But when what habitually goes down actually goes up again, there's cause to pause, smile a little, and analyse one sector at a time. ABC has also combined print and digital magazine data for the first time – and the striking thing isn't how big online mag editions are (from June to December 2013) but how puny. But maybe you can't wrap your fish & chips in a tablet. Hype, hype, hooray!

7 Rule Amendments effective 1st January 2014: PDF Replica Editions: Paid Circulation – circulation is counted when payment is received. Bulk sales – The publisher must prove distribution in terms of a list provided by the purchaser – limited to 10% of total paid circulation. Free bulk distribution is excluded.

8 Membership Statistics:

9 Sector size ranked by circulation – Quarter 4 2013:

10 Overall Economic Perspective Comment: Retail sales increased by 1.7% over the prior quarter. The main increase was in General Dealers and Retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods. Real GDP at market prices increased by 2.9% quarter on quarter. The main increase was in Mining and Quarrying.

11 4 Year Total Newspaper Circulation Trend by Quarter: Comment: Total Newspapers increased by 246,000 copies compared to the previous quarter

12 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Daily Newspapers Comment: Circulation has declined annually by 4.2% since 2009, equivalent to 281,000 copies. However, Q4 increases by 149,000 copies, compared to Q3, mainly the result of The Times moving from Hybrid to Daily newspapers.

13 4 Year Trend Analysis by Language Daily Newspapers Comment: English titles have declined by 4.1% annually (200, 000 copies) over the period. Afrikaans titles have declined by 6.2% annually (83,000 copies) over the period. Vernacular titles have increased by 3,000 copies over the period.

14 4 Year Trend Analysis: Coastal vs Inland Daily Newspapers Comment: Inland circulation declined annually by 4% (171,000 copies) over the period. Q4 increased by 149, 000 compared to Q3 (The Times). Coastal circulation declined annually by 4.7% (110,000 copies) over the period.

15 Titles Showing Largest Growth Daily Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1Herald, The 22 62122 0792,45% 21 446 5,48%

16 Titles Showing Largest Decline Daily Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Son (Daily) 86 83796 598-10,10%86 598 0,28% 2 Citizen, The (Daily) 58 73564 627-9,12%60 242 -2,50% 3Daily Sun 297 614322 324-7,67%291 132 2,23% 4Witness, The 17 54918 804-6,67%17 260 1,67% 5Cape Argus 30 20432 337-6,60% 30777-1,86%

17 New Members / Removals Daily Newspapers

18 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Weekly Newspapers Comment: Weekly newspapers reflect an erratic performance. Q4, however, declined by 4% (23,000 copies) compared to Q3.

19 Titles Showing Largest Growth Weekly Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1Auto Week 12 3988 82040,57% 10 203 21,51% 2 Mail & Guardian 51 55148 9995,21% 4224222,04%

20 Titles Showing Largest Decline Weekly Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Ilanga 95 994118 584-19,05%99 582 -3,60% 2The Zimbabwean 5 7916 906-16,15%8 544 -32,22% 3Motorsport World 8 2278 841-6,94% 668823,01%

21 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Weekend Newspapers Comment: Circulation has declined annually by 4.3% (407,000 copies) over the period. Q4, however, only declined by 1.7 % (31,000 copies) compared to Q3.

22 4 Year Trend Analysis by Language: Weekend Newspapers Comment: English titles have declined annually by 4.7% (305,000 copies) over the period. Afrikaans titles have declined annually by 7.4% (183,000 copies) over the period. Vernacular titles have grown annually by 13% (81,000 copies) over the period

23 Titles Showing Largest Growth Weekend Newspapers No Publication NameTOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Isolezwe ngoMgqibelo82 33973 448 12,11% 78 7724,53%

24 Titles Showing Largest Decline Weekend Newspapers No Publication NameTOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Ilanga Langesonto 56 07464 344 -12,85% 56 656 -1,03% 2Rapport 187 288213 460 -12,26% 183 187 2,24% 3 Pretoria News Saturday 10 12611 510 -12,02% 10 515 -3,70% 4Sunday World 116 659130 656 -10,71% 116 875 -0,18%

25 New Members / Removals Weekend Newspapers

26 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Local Newspapers Comment: Local Newspapers have declined by 3.2% (65,000 copies) over the period. Q4 reflected a similar circulation compared to Q3.

27 Titles Showing Largest Growth Local Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1Capricorn Voice 5 6934 83417,77% 5212 9,23% 2 Review Midweek (formerly Limpopo Informant) 2 7382 42213,05% 196139,62% 3Grocotts Mail 2 2952 06711,03% 22840,48% 4Stellalander 4 3783 9829,94% 42582,82%

28 Titles Showing Largest Decline Local Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1Talk of the Town 2 1652 784-22,23% 2178 -0,60% 2Knysna Plett Herald 2 9073 287-11,56% 3099 -6,20% 3Standerton Advertiser 3 1993 534-9,48% 3374-5,19% 4 Bosveld Review (formerly Bosvelder) 2 2982 518-8,74% 2455-6,40%

29 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Hybrid Newspapers Comment: Circulation shows a dramatic decline as a result of The Times moving to Daily Newspapers.

30 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Free Newspapers Comment: Distribution has increased annually by 7.5% (1,615,000 copies) over the period, increasing by 4.6% (295,000 copies) in Q4 compared to Q3, mainly the result of new members.

31 New Members / Removals Free Newspapers

32 Titles Showing Largest Growth Free Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Northern Eyethu (formerly Zululand North Watch) 21 4026 003 256,52% 11038 93,89% 2 Midvaal Ster (Fromerly Meyerton Ster) 15 0699 116 65,30% 905566,42% 3 Kalahari Buletin (Formerly Kuruman Bulletin) 27 83419 866 40,11% 26494 5,06% 4Ilembe Eyethu 27 48519 947 37,79% 23957 14,73% 5 Theewaterkloof Gazette (Formerly Kontreinuus Gaz.) 14 60910 609 37,70% 14609 0,00%

33 Titles Showing Largest Decline Free Newspapers No Publication NameTOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Makhado Review (formerly Vhembe Herald) 4725 800 -91,86% 5800 -91,86% 2Alex News 19 73829 064 -32,09% 19750-0,06% 3Noordwes Gazette 16 99024 990 -32,01% 16921 0,41% 4Veereniging Ster 17 63123 875 -26,15% 23364-24,54%

34 4 Year Magazine Circulation by Quarter Comment: Total magazines decreased by 4.7% (951,000 copies) over the previous quarter. Consumer magazines decreased by 1.9% (138,000 copies) over the previous quarter.

35 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Consumer Magazines Comment: Circulation declined annually by 2% (568,000 copies) over the period, although performance over the past year has been particularly disappointing, declining by 8.5% (552,000 copies).

36 New Members / Removals Consumer Magazines

37 Titles Showing Largest Growth Consumer Magazines No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Kuier Combo (Annual) 105 51123 077 357,21% 2 SA Career Focus (Six monthly) 4 8352 412 100,46% 3 Fitness His Edition (Six monthly) 11 6938 214 42,35% 4 Fitness Magazine (Six monthly) 22 97217 624 30,34% 5Entrepreneur 22 32317 280 29,18%206098,32%

38 Titles Showing Largest Decline Consumer Magazines No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Tech-Smart Magazine 14 78474 384 -80,12% 39 626-62,69% 2Today's Child 10 03424 017 -58,22% 20 262-50,48% 3HQ Pony 3 7298 172 -54,37% 6 716-44,48% 4Finweek 13 21723 456 -43,65% 14 013-5,68%

39 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Consumer Magazines - Home Comment: Circulation has remained static over the period. Q4, however, decreased by 7.5% (58,000 copies) compared to Q3, mainly the result of some titles reporting on a biennial cycle.

40 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Consumer Magazines - Sport and Hobby Comment: Circulation declined annually by 3% (59,000 copies) over the period. Q4, however, declined by 12% (52,000 copies) compared to Q3, mainly the result of discontinued titles.

41 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Consumer Magazines - Travel Comment: Circulation increased annually by 23% (252,000 copies) over the period, fluctuating considerably as a result of biennial reporting titles. Q4 increased by 47% (162,000 copies) compared to Q3, because of new members, changed reporting cycles, and biennial reporting titles.

42 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Consumer Magazines – Woman’s General Comment: This category has fluctuated considerably. Circulation declined by 2.7% annually (185,000 copies) over the period, although Q4 increased slightly compared to Q3.

43 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Business to Business Magazines Comment: Circulation has increased annually by 0.7% (33,000 copies) over the period.

44 New Members / Removals Business to Business Magazines

45 Titles Showing Largest Growth Business to Business Magazines No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Business Brief (Six monthly) 31 27019 216 62,73% 2 MIMS Guide to OTC Products (Annual) 2 8571 778 60,69% 3Plumbing Africa 5 7223 798 50,66% 378351,26% 4 Refrigeration and Airconditioning 4 5523 039 49,79% 302050,73%

46 Titles Showing Largest Decline Business to Business Magazines No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 My Office (formerly Shop-SA) 3 9877 897 -49,51% 5283-24,53% 2 Business In Durban (Annual) 8 77014 561 -39,77% 3Hotel & Restaurant 4 9456 857 -27,88% 6222-20,52%

47 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: B2B Magazines – Hospitality, Catering and Tourism Comment: Circulation declined annually by 13% (62,000 copies) over the period, although has remained fairly static over the last year.

48 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Custom Magazines Comment: Circulation increased annually by 1.8% (838,000 copies) over the period. However, Q4 decreased by 6.5% (811, 000 copies) compared to Q3, mainly the result of one large title not reporting.

49 New Members / Removals Custom Magazines

50 Titles Showing Largest Growth Custom Magazines No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 TAXtalk (Six monthly) 10 0832 439 313,41% 2TFG Man 56 82922 532 152,21% 4914815,63% 3Mercedes (Annual) 31 35515 840 97,95% 4Sawubona 87 50058 187 50,38% 875000,00%

51 Titles Showing Largest Decline Custom Magazines No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Strategic Marketing Magazine (Six monthly) 5 14516 763 -69,31% 2 JD Group Club Magazines (A) 164 633352 619 -53,31% 165 597-0,58% 3 JD Group Club Magazines (B) 104 528222 721 -53,07% 98 6056,01% 4 Q-One Student Diary (Annual) 54 054103 060 -47,55% 5 The SA Journal of Epidemiology & Infection (SAJEI) (Annual) 1 0691 922 -44,38%

52 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Custom Magazines – Entertainment Comment: Circulation increased annually by 3% (273,000 copies) over the period. However Q4 decreased by 18% (526,000 copies) compared to Q3.

53 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Custom Magazines – Retail Comment: Circulation increased annually by 0.3% (88,000 copies) over the period. Q4 declined by 5.3% (344,000 copies) compared to Q3.

54 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Free Magazines Comment: Circulation declined annually by 18% over the period. Q4 decreased by 4.8% (30,000 copies) compared to Q3.

55 Observations: Press:  The passing of our founding President, Mr Mandela, had a pronounced impact on newspaper sales. In fact having reviewed several other media platforms, it’s clear that press probably did better than any other medium….which is surprising given the delay to market. This momentary revival of print during such a national trauma demonstrated nevertheless the unique relationship that print has with the general public.  Mail & Guardian, in particular, was up 22% on Q3.  On the Weekend Newspaper front, the decline is slowing. Isolezwe ngoMgqibelo however jumped 12% year on year and 4.5% on Q3.  The Local Newspaper category was stable.  Growth in free newspapers was driven largely by new entrants...that said, several established titles also showed growth.

56 Magazines:  The magazine category has recorded a disappointing 8.5% decline.  Where there has been growth within a category, this tends to have been as a result of new entrants or an existing title changing frequency.  Woman's General category showed a slight growth over Q3.  In the B2B sector, Hospitality & Catering category dropped 13%. The Custom category which is usually buoyant cannot be compared, as a key title had not reported.  Entertainment magazines dropped 18% on Q3 which could be as a result of a broadcaster encouraging viewers to switch to a digital alternative.

57  In conclusion, if we have learnt anything from the last quarter of 2013 it is that content, ie good journalism, remains critical if the print industry is to again connect in a sustainable manner with the population.  Trends from the UK have revealed that while digital has its place, the migration even in an advanced market may not be as strong as digital experts predict. Importantly, even in those categories where digital migration has been strong, advertising revenue typically has not followed.  Lastly, 2014 will be an extremely short year; we have the prospect of further economic declines, power cuts, an election (for which some of you won’t be paid) plus real challenges linked to the readership currency.  It’s time to stand together and look forward.

58 Thank you.

59 Your ABC - Transparency you can see -


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