1. Theme 3 research overview, October 2011 Dr Mirjam Roeder, Dr Alice Bows, Dr Laura Thom Mitigation & Adaptation Scenarios: Food Supply Chains

2. Building food futures Aim: To develop ‘consumption’ scenarios capturing futures changed by both adaptation & mitigation WP3 Food Futures Mitigation FUTURE SCENARIOS Iteration between adaptation and mitigation results Identification of emission ‘hot spots’ with high adaptation impacts Identification of emission ‘hot spots’ with high mitigation potential WP1 Emission accounting & modelling WP2 Food Futures Adaptation

3. Developing food system scenarios (Theme 3 Flagship project)  First research endeavour to develop quantitative and qualitative interpretations of ‘2°C’ and ‘4°C’ worlds focusing on food systems.  Key research questions:  What can input-output modelling tell us about where policies will have the greatest influence on emissions, currently and by 2050?  What is the impact on agricultural production & emissions of different future climate impacts?  What is the role of the stakeholder groups (retailers, manufacturers, farmers etc.) in influencing future emissions within the supply chain?  How might consumers respond to radically different diets or food availability?  Key aim: to construct illustrative scenarios of the food system as a basis for debate and discussion around policies and choices that will impact the future

4. Some preliminary findings: 1. Initial model outputs suggest: (a) Emissions associated with 2°C future only compatible with low or no economic growth in short term (b) Most intractable sector is agriculture due to emissions of N 2 O and CH 4 2. Agricultural emissions assessment highlights: (a)Future climate impacts increase the emissions per unit of production (b)UK wheat can be more productive as temperatures rise, but not indefinitely (c)Taking consumption-based view in isolation will cloud policy decisions 3. Stakeholder assessment: (a)Retailers considered a powerful facilitator of change by other stakeholders (b)Choice editing needs to be higher up in consumption debates (c)Farmers used to adapting to change but extreme weather impacts often ignored 4.Project integration: - Mitigation is about urgency and influencing where possible - Responsibility over wider set of emissions provides greater control over climate destiny