1. 1 Insert your text here. El Nino and Climate Change - The case of the Kenya tea industry

2. 2 Insert your text here. -Source of livelihood to (Directly and Indirectly) about 3million Kenyans and their families -Contributes to the national economy (26% of export earnings; 4% GDP) -A rural based enterprise & contributes to rural poverty alleviation -Contributes to Environmental conservation / Carbon sink- sequestration TEA IN KENYA: AN IMPORTANT CASH CROP

3. Significance of El Nino & Climate Change (CC) 3 El Nino – Weather phenomenon associated with warming of the sea surface in the pacific; In Eastern Africa, it results in increased rainfall depending on strength (or even drought-La Nina), Occurs every 2-6 yrs in Eastern Africa, Last experienced in 1986/7, 91/92, 94/95, 2002/3, 04/05, 06/07/09/10,15/16, depending on strength can result in 10-20% increase in tea yield or even up to 20% decrease. Frequency of El nino is associated with CC. CC impacts on: Environment, Human health, Food security, Agriculture, Economic activities, Natural resources and Physical Infrastructure

4. 4 Is there Evidence of Climate Change at the Global level? Warmest 12 years: 1990,1995, 1997,1998, 1999,2000, 2001, 2002, 2003,2004,2005,2006—2015/2016 100 0.074  0.018 50 0.128  0.026

5. 6 Further evidence of climate change- The Sea Level Observations since 1961 show that the average temperature of the global ocean has increased Such warming causes seawater to expand, contributing to sea level rise. There has been observed sea level rise from the 19th to the 20th century.

6. 7 Is there any Evidence of Climate change in E. Africa? Melting of Mt. Kilimanjaro glaciers in East Africa About 82 % of the icecap that covered Mt Kilimanjaro surveyed in 1912 is now gone. If the recession continues at the present rate, the majority of the glaciers on Kilimanjaro could vanish in the next 15 years

7. 8 WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA? Some climate change signals have been evidenced in the Kenya. The change signals observed include:  temperature rises;  Decreasing and erratic rainfall trends;  melting and retreat of mountain glaciers eg on Mt Kenya;  increasing frequency of extreme climate events including floods, droughts, frost, hail etc; SOME OF THE ABOVE HAVE BEEN EVIDENCED IN TEA AREAS

8. Rainfall Trends in a major Tea zone (Kericho-TRI, Kenya) 9

9. Detailed review of rainfall Trends in a major Tea zone (Kericho-TRI, Kenya) There is an annual decrease of 4.82mm over a period of 52 years. Rainfall decreased by more than 250mm over the years. 10

10. There is a rainfall decrease of 65mm (R² = 0.803) for every ten-year period average Rainfall Trends in the major Tea growing region of Kericho, Kenya 11

11. 12 Trends in Soil water deficits in a major tea zone- Kericho, Kenya

12. There is a general increase of temperature Trends in Temperature in a major Tea Area- Kericho 13

13. There is an annual rise of 0.016 0 C (R² = 0.331) over a period of 52 years Detailed review of trends in Temperature in a major Tea Area- Kericho 14

14. Change in Mean air temperature (Decades) in Kericho  There is an average rise of 0.2 0 C (R² = 0.852) for every ten-year period  This is a temperature increase of 1 0 C over the years. 15

15. 16 Magnitude of change in Kenyas’ major Tea areas REGIONTRENDMAGNITUDE (T max) WesternIncrease0.5 –2.1  C CentralIncrease0.1- 0.7  C (T min) WesternIncrease0.8-2.9  C CentralIncrease0.8- 2.0  C

16. Monthly radiation and mean air temperatures are correlated Monthly trends for radiation and tempt. in a tea zone, Kericho, Kenya Risk 17

17. Total tea production in Kenya 18 1963

18. Total tea production and average yields in Kenya Mild-Strong El Nino 19

19. 20 Tea Productivity average in Kenya and Research (TRI)

20. 21 Mean air temperature and tea yields at Timbilil Tea Estate, TRFK SWD Except for Jan-April, increase in tempt. results in increase in production

21. 22 Monthly radiation and tea production at Timbilil Tea Estate Tea yields are not correlated to levels of radiation

22. 23 In Kericho, Yield decreases linearly with increase in SWD Critical SWD is 120mm Seasonal SVPD affects yields

23. 24 Current suitability map of tea production areas in Kenya According to the MAXENT model, most suitable areas are concentrated in the higher areas of districts: Meru, Embu, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murangá, Kiambu, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Narok, Migori and Homa Bay.

24. 25 Future suitability of tea production areas: 2020 In 2020 suitable areas start shifting but the average suitability in all districts remain nearly constant. Productivity to remain almost the same and tea quality may be maintained.

25. 26 Future suitability of tea production areas: 2050 In 2050 tea production according to its climate- suitability is predicted to be more concentrated in Central Kenya. Productivity may decrease in West of Rift Valley. Tea quality would also be compromised.

26. 27 Relationship of suitability & altitude With progressive climate change, areas at higher altitudes benefit on tea- suitability Optimum tea-producing zone is currently at an altitude between 1500 and 2100 masl By 2050: suitability will increase to an altitude between 2000 and 2300 masl areas at altitudes between 1400 and 1900 masl will suffer the highest decrease in suitability areas around 2300 masl will have the highest increase in suitability Overall total production will stabilize or decrease since suitable areas will shrink

27. 28 Other Extreme Weather Phenomena- eg HAIL cause significant crop losses – (Hail in Kenya can cause crop loss of up to an average of 2m kg Mt/yr) Hail is unpredictable. The number of incidences and intensity vary year to Year.

28. 29 FROST- is associated with dry weather conditions & damage is exacerbated by high Fertilizer rates; incidences are increasing

29. 30 Potential Interventions- Modification of the tea microclimate- Shade and shelter to militate against damage from extreme whether events

30. 31 Tea Breeding to manage abiotic and biotic stress Breeding stocks and their expected genetic contribution in the breeding programme Diversification of the choice of tea germplasm in plantations & deployment of tolerant germplam

31. 32 Adoption of agronomic practices that contribute to soil moisture conservation Water content decreases with increased fertilizer and soil depth. Judicious use of inputs eg optimal rates of fertilizer

32. Practical adaptation measures being undertaken by Tea industry Efficient management of soil and water resources -efficient water use and enhanced water storage, (Precision farming and Judicious use of inputs) Catchment protection (Bamboo) Environmental conservation and Control of deforestation Riverbank protection Sustainable management of forests -Planting of hedges and natural barriers Soil Water Conservation measures and Mulching Crop diversification Water harvesting structures (Micro-catchment) Development and Growing of low water demand (drought resistant) cultivars/varieties Identification of alternate sources of energy (wind, solar, hydro) Consideration of crop insurances 33

33. 34 The Way Forward The following long term measures are also being implemented: Implementation of climate change programmes – with clear Strategies, policies, and projects eg enactment of the Tea Act 2012 (development of Ad valorem levy to finance research and regulation of tea); tea task force report; review of the “brown line” etc Tea sector is currently screening for the genes responsible for drought tolerance in tea- the work will assist in crop improvement programmes The Kenyan tea industry is exploring to negotiate for Carbon credits; or opportunities for reducing carbon emissions  The industry is continuously carrying out systematic analysis of current weather patterns in Tea growing Zones Closer collaboration with the private sector in resource mobilisation to support CC adaptation activities Awareness creation and farmer education not to plant tea outside the gazetted areas- Offer alternatives eg plant fuel wood for tea factories or other crops Intensification of data and information collection and forecasting

34. 35 Thank You