1. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 SIOS: Gap Analysis  SIOS – not a new infrastructure, but upgrading and integration of existing infrastructures in and around Svalbard  Starting point: ”observatories” (discipline-based: atmosphere, ocean, ice, land)  BUT: shouldn’t focus be on ”Integrated”, i.e. interdisciplinary?  AND: Which topics is Svalbard especially suited for?

2. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 Gap analysis, cont.’d  Establishment of topic-oriented groups:  Group 1: Magnetosphere – ionosphere – links to climate  Group 2: Climate change and pollution: geophysical processes (atmosphere, ocean, land, ice)  Group 3: Environmental change and marine ecosystems (ocean, ice, biology)  Group 4: Environmental change and terrestrial ecosystems (soil/permafrost, ice, biology)  Group 5: Long-term changes and solid earth (geology, geochemistry, geodesy, paleoclimate, ice)

3. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 Group work tasks 1) What are the crucial questions (scientific, monitoring/ management related) in your field in the Arctic, incl. links to other fields? 2) For which of those is Svalbard naturally suited as a field laboratory? 3) What infrastructure is available/what is needed to address the relevant questions adequately? 4) What can be the role of the Knowledge Centre in your field? 5) Proposal of working group for further gap analysis 6) Should one stick to the new structure or go back to the initial observatory structure? How can one integrate geographically spread units?

4. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 WP C i SIOS-PP: WP C covers the very important work of assessing the existing infrastructure in the light of the scientific topics which are to be addressed by SIOS and identifying needs for upgrading facilities and additional infrastructure. This is a process which was started in 2009 using Norwegian funding and own contributions from the participating institutions, with the establishment of six gap analysis working groups. … In a second step, these results will be merged in a synthesis process with the aim of removing redundancies and achieve an integrated view of the infrastructure as a whole. The resulting synthesis report, which is due about 1 year after the start of the SIOS-PP project, is envisaged to become the baseline for a common scientific strategy for the future SIOS infrastructure, with a prioritized list of infrastructure investments and an estimate of operational costs. The strategy will be revised and, if necessary, updated with the support of an (external) Advisory Board (see management structure section) on a regular basis. The first version of this strategy will form the basis for the Financial Strategy to be addressed by WP 3, covering both the investment plan and the business plan/operational cost plan. WP C will also have an important influence on WP 2 (governance structure) and WP 8 (internal integration).

5. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 SIOS Key topics identified by WGs  WG1:  Primary coupling processes that connect the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere  Response of coupling processes to solar variability and climate change; causes of observed long-term changes in ionospheric parameters  Role of dust and aerosols in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere; effect of meteoric input and cosmic radiation affect the whole atmosphere  Effect of magnetic reconnection on the ionosphere and thermosphere  Influence of small-scale structures and dynamics on changes in the large scale plasma parameters and vice versa  Long-term evolution of ion and neutral outflow in global energy, mass and momentum transfer between the magnetosphere and ionosphere  Interhemispheric conjugacy and seasonal dependence of solar wind coupling and energy input into the thermosphere

6. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 SIOS Key topics identified by WGs (2)  WG2:  Sea ice in the Arctic: studies of processes and fluxes through the gateways  Oceanographic processes in the Svalbard region and the Fram Strait: small scales - large impacts on regional climate and the Arctic Ocean as a whole  The Arctic troposphere - boundary layer – surface system and its impacts on arctic climate in a region with large natural variability  Terrestrial cryosphere, weather and hydrology in the Svalbard region  Greenhouse gas budgets on- and offshore: jokers in the Arctic climate system  Vertical Atmospheric coupling from the surface to the ionosphere Temperature anomaly October/November 2005-07 (NCEP analysis)

7. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 SIOS Key topics identified by WGs (3)  WG3:  Spatial and temporal variations in the species composition and distribution of zooplankton, benthos, key fish species and arctic, endemic top trophic marine mammals  Trends in the vertical distribution of zooplankton by use of sediment traps and acoustic methods  Assessment of trends in carbon export and biogeochemical cycling using sediment traps  Establish ecological baselines and physical mechanisms of ecosystem regulation using benthos as a monitoring tool  Identify thresholds that can change Arctic marine food webs and energy transfer Location of established ecosystem monitoring transects

8. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 SIOS Key topics identified by WGs (4)  WG 4:  How do high arctic permafrost landscapes affect the carbon and nitrogen cycle?  Periglacial landform responses to climate change  Use of ice-rich permafrost landforms as direct climatic archives  Geohazards associated with permafrost and/or snow in the Svalbard landscape  The dynamics of the coastal zone and its reaction to climatic changes  Extent of permafrost from land and below the sea  (Contemporary) Baseline and Biodiversity of the Svalbard terrestrial biota  Polar terrestrial ecosystem resilience to variability and change, especially overwintering aspects  Marine-terrestrial ecosystem links: nutrients and pollution

9. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 SIOS Key topics identified by WGs (4)  WG 5:  Arctic geohazards: deglaciation- related seismicity, permafrost thawing, gas hydrates decay  Glaciology: mass balance and dynamics  The paleo-climate of Svalbard: sedimentary rocks (“breathing Earth”); ice and marine sediment coring  Past and present tectonic processes; implications for ocean currents and climate change  Past and present marine sedimentary processes, climate and environments on Svalbard Fig. 1. Map of Svalbard seismicity for years 2007-April 2009.

10. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 SIOS Key topics identified by WGs (6)  WG 6:  Elucidation of local contamination incl. potential role of the increased tourist, fishing, population and industry developments on the islands for the local pollutant situation  Development of abatement strategies for reduction or even avoiding release of pollution into the Arctic environment in conjunction with local partners  The Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) as accumulation zone for the release of ice-transported pollutants.  Evaluation and baseline studies of the pollutant situation on the terrestrial ecosystems in Svalbard

11. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 Future work  Are all these topics relevant for Arctic ESS?  Are there important topics missing?  Who can help to review/complete the list within the next 6 months?  How do we continue the work with the infrastructure listing tables, both existing and needed (very different levels of detailing)?

12. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 NSF Science Plan for Regional Arctic System Modeling  Recent document: scientifically updated  Complementary to SIOS gap analysis process - focusing on needs on modeling side:  Technical capacity,  Organisation  Scientific focus areas (”Arctic System Modeling Vignettes”)

13. 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010 NSF Science Plan for Regional Arctic System Modeling: Vignettes  Arctic amplification: local or global?  future changes in Arctic sea ice cover  carbon feedbacks to climate in the Arctic system (terrestrial and marine)  processes affecting glacier mass balance  (Arctic coastal erosion)  biosphere feedbacks on atmospheric composition  short-term impacts of permafrost degradation  (Forecasting environmental resilience of Arctic freshwater resources – socio-biophysical coupling)

14. 1 st Gap Analysis synthesis group Workshop  31 August -2 September, 2010 Kap Linné  Participants: WG leaders + R. Rønneberg (local organizer, UNIS)  Work done:  Review of gap analysis mandate, assessment of group reports in light of this  Grouping of identified key topics, removal of redundancies  Identification of gaps  Decision on further process 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010

15. Revised list of key topics(preliminary) (1)Vertical coupling in the arctic atmosphere from the free troposphere to the ionosphere (2)Oceanic processes and sea ice in the Svalbard region (3)The Arctic troposphere – boundary layer – surface system and cloud-albedo feedback (4)Processes affecting glacier/ice cap balance (5)Svalbard regional climate: Extended Meteorological Stations Network (6)Carbon (and other GHG) feedback processes in the Arctic climate system (7)Marine transport of energy and nutrients horizontally, vertically and through the food chain (8)Arctic permafrost, geomorphological processes and hydrology (9)Arctic geohazards caused by climate change processes (10)Paleo-climatic studies as a key to understand current rapid change (?) (11)Direct human impact of the Arctic System: local (and long-range transported) pollution (12)Phase transition processes of environmental pollutants and impact of climate change (13)Contemporary baseline of terrestrial ecosystems along the Svalbard climatic gradient (?) (14)Polar terrestrial ecosystem resilience to climate variability and change (?) (15)Marine-terrestrial ecosystem links and exchange (?) 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010

16. Future actions  Extension of synthesis group: ca. 10 more experts (international) to cover all the main (scientific) topics of SIOS  Next meeting end of November:  Assessment of critical topics identified on first meeting  revision of investment proposals by working groups  Preparation of meeting with ESS experts  Meeting with ESS experts (and SIOS Advisory Board?) in February 2011  Final meeting in April to conclude the synthesis process 1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard 31 August - 2 September, 2010