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Paradigm Best Practice Workshop - Income Investing in the New World April/May 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "Paradigm Best Practice Workshop - Income Investing in the New World April/May 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Paradigm Best Practice Workshop - Income Investing in the New World April/May 2014

2 2  Explain how longevity is a key issue for today's investor through demographic trends  Understand how UK investors feel about their financial future through insights from BlackRock's Investor Pulse Survey  Illustrate the different risks/reward profiles that each asset class has in the current environment  Describe how an equity income strategy can support clients' income needs both towards and at retirement Learning outcomes

3 Demographics in the spotlight

4 Retirement: An important market for all of us The global retirement population is rapidly increasing Planning for retirement will become imperative Source: United Nations as at 31 December 2010. ? 737 Mn people Global retirement population 4

5 What explains the increase in the ageing population? Source: UN estimates. Between 1950 and 2010, The United Nations estimate of Life Expectancy rose from 47 … …to 67 That’s a 43% increase

6 What is the life expectancy of a child born in the UK today? 1.76 years 2.77 years 3.80 years 4.83 years Source: UN, CIA World Factbook 6

7 Life expectancy and GDP growth Source: Gapminder as at 31 December 2012

8 Use your longevity Investors need to make their money last longer. Increasing life expectancy will require a more active approach to investment in retirement 8 Source: Annuity 2000 Mortality Table, Society of Actuaries. Figures assume non-smokers in good health. US Data.

9 What are investors thinking? BlackRock Investor Pulse Survey Source: BlackRock Investor Pulse survey, conducted in association with research agency Cicero Group in September 2013 amongst a nationally representative sample of 2,000 UK residents (of which 400 categorised as mass affluent) aged 25 to 74 years old. The results of this survey are provided for information purposes. The conclusions are intended to provide an indication of the current attitude of a sample of citizens in the UK to saving and investing and should not be relied upon for any other purposes.

10 Short-termism and risk aversion leading people to seek shelter in cash … 10 CASH: 68 % STOCKS: 13 % BONDS: 7 % PROPERTY: 6 % ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS: 2 % OTHER 2 %  68% of people’s investments are in cash, with a relatively small proportion dedicated to longer-term investments  46% intend to maintain the same level of cash over the next 12 months and 32% intend to increase it All UK residents Cash is king in UK portfolios

11 But what about affluent investors? 11  Affluent investors and people who have an adviser have a more diversified portfolio, but with cash still a major component STOCKS: 25 % BONDS: 12 % PROPERTY: 16 % ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS: 2 % OTHER 2 % CASH:42 % Mass affluent only Typical portfolio for an affluent investor

12 How people are planning to change their asset allocation over the next 12 months … and also to stay in a holding pattern with few changes in asset allocation 12 All UK residents

13 Cash still favoured as a source of income and growth 13 Protect against loss Protect against inflation Generate a regular income Grow savings/ investments Views from affluent investors on what asset classes / investments will help them with the following 4 financial goals:  People rightly see cash as a safe harbour but may be unaware of the effects of inflation  Many understand how dividend-paying equities can help generate an income, however a third of investors see cash as the best way to achieve this goal All UK residents

14 Yesterdays news, but still driving sentiment 14

15 Understanding risk and reward

16 The danger of ‘do nothing’ 16 Example investor asset allocation Assumptions for Bonds  Low inflation or even deflation  Interest rates stay the same or decline  QE programmes to remain indefinitely Capital Stability Assumptions for Bonds  Yield above inflation  Price volatility a secondary concern  High volatility in equity markets Assumptions for Cash  Interest rates above inflation  High volatility in markets Assumptions for Cash  Interest rates to rise  Outright economic deflation Income Generation Bonds Cash Equities Investors are positioned in cash and fixed income to meet two primary needs:

17 Cash: long-term effects of inflation erodes clients’ standards of living Time works against investors who rely on fixed amount of capital  Even a moderate rate of inflation can erode purchasing power  An inflation rate of 3% will reduce purchasing power by half in 25 years, assuming no interest is earned  Growing income streams have become necessary to preserve lifestyle during longer lives Source: BlackRock. Assumes constant annual inflation rate and no interest earned on investment. For illustrative purposes only.. £609 @ 2% inflation £478 @ 3% inflation £375 @ 4% inflation Years

18 Source: BlackRock/OECD/Bloomberg as at 31 July 2013. Investors need to consider alternatives to fixed income 18 Economic Social Political Technological Environment of low inflation and falling interest rates since the 1980’s The world has changed and fixed income must change with it

19 ~9.5% loss of capital Preserving capital: bond sensitivity Just a small change in BoE rates would cause a significant fall in capital for investors in UK 10-year gilts Source: UK 10-Year Gilt modified duration: 9.5%. Source: BlackRock / Bloomberg, data as at 16 January 2014. 1% rise in rates Expect volatility from any changes to interest rates and monetary policy 19

20 Why look to equity income?

21 Investors may need to broaden their search for yield Source: BlackRock, DataStream, Bloomberg. Data as at 31 December 2013. Cash represented by the JP Morgan Cash Total Return Index, UK government bonds represented by 10-year gilts, UK corporate bonds represented by the BarCap Sterling Aggregate Corporate Index, global high yield represented by the BarCap Global High Yield Index, emerging market debt represented by the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index, UK equities represented by the FTSE All-Share Index (total return), global equities represented by the MSCI AC World Index (total return), global high dividend equities represented by the MSCI World High Dividend Yield Index (total return). Diversify your income Yield comparisons as at 31.12.2013 21

22 22 Real Returns to the FTSE All Share (Since 1962) 10 year annual average real return to FTSE All Share (Ending Year) 5 year annual average real return to FTSE All Share from subsequent 10 year periods with 0 or negative returns (Starting Year) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream. Data from 31 December 1962 to 31 December 2013. FTSE All Share Index (total return). Inflation is represented by the Retail Price Index. All returns are in sterling terms. 1982 1974 2008 1978 1979 1981 -6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20% 2013 2012 2006 1999 2000 2008 1980 2005 1997 19901993 198120091977201020112007 2004 200119961995 19881992 1974 197819791982197619751973200320021983 19721994198519981987199119861989 1984 -6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%

23 Negative growth Annualised returns: 10/90–6/91, 6/00–1/02, 9/07–6/09 High growth Annualised returns: 9/93–2/95, 2/96–6/00,1/02–8/02, 7/09–9/10 Equity income strategies have outperformed in a low growth environment Source: BlackRock, Bloomberg and Barclays. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any Blackrock fund. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Annualized returns based on Global Equities Equity income investing is well suited to current economic conditions Low growth Annualised returns: 1/88–10/90, 6/91–9/93, 2/95–2/96, 8/02–9/07 -12.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0 % 12.0% All equity High dividend equity IG Corp. HY Corp. -12.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% 4.0 % 8.0% 12.0% All equity High dividend equity IG Corp. HY Corp. All equity High dividend equity IG Corp. HY Corp. -12.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 23

24  Europe offers yield investors much more choice than the UK  In Europe, the top 10 dividend payers represent only 29% of all dividend income**  In the UK, the top 10 dividend payers represent 51% of all dividend income** No. of stocks yielding > 4.0% with market cap over EUR1 bn* Europe equities offer a yield premium from high quality, market leading businesses European income investing offers more choice *Source: Citigroup, Data to 31 October 2013 * based on stocks above EUR1bn market cap and with a dividend yield >4.0%. **Source: Citigroup, Data to 31 December 2013. 24

25 Trailing 12M net distribution yield of 3.8% 2 Realised beta since launch: 0.83 1 BlackRock Continental European Income Fund performance to 31 March 2014 25 Absolute Returns (%)6 months201320122011 Since Inception Since launch (ann.) BLK Continental European Income Fund (£) 11.329.918.2-13.739.212.1 FTSE Europe ex UK (net) (£) 8.926.016.6-21.718.56.0 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY 1 Source: BlackRock, as at 31.03.2014. Realised ex-post beta since launch versus the FTSE World Developed Europe ex UK index was 0.83. Calculation based on monthly returns. 2 Source: BlackRock. BlackRock Continental European Income Fund A Inc Units,12 month trailing yield, net of withholding tax as at 31.03.2014: 3.8%. Source for performance data: BlackRock. Fund inception date: 6 May 2011. Fund’s cumulative performance shown in Sterling on a NAV price basis with income reinvested, A Accumulation Unit, net of fees, as at 31.03.2014.

26 Summary  Longevity means investors may need to plan for a third phase of life in retirement  Investor sentiment is still largely driven by fear and caution  Cash continues to dominate investors’ portfolios  But the risks associated with cash and fixed income are changing  Investors need income but traditional sources are not delivering  Equity income offers a potential solution for investors seeking yield  The current environment is supportive of equity income strategies  Europe offers a fertile hunting ground for the income investor 26

27 27  Explain how longevity is a key issue for today's investor through demographic trends  Understand how UK investors feel about their financial future through insights from BlackRock's Investor Pulse Survey  Illustrate the different risks/reward profiles that each asset class has in the current environment  Describe how an equity income strategy can support clients' income needs both towards and at retirement Learning outcomes

28 This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA Rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons. Unless otherwise specified, all information contained in this document is sourced by BlackRock and is current as at 31 December 2013. Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time. Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy. BlackRock have not considered the suitability of this investment against your individual needs and risk tolerance. To ensure you understand whether our product is suitable, please read the Key Investor Information Document. Any decision to invest must be based solely on the information contained in the Company’s Prospectus, Key Investor Information Document and the latest half-yearly report and unaudited accounts and/or annual report and audited accounts. Investors should read the fund specific risks in the Key Investor Information Document and the Company’s Prospectus. We recommend you seek independent professional advice prior to investing. If, after reading this brochure, you have any questions or would like any additional information please contact your financial adviser or speak to our Investor Services Team on 0800 445522. Fund specific risks: The fund invests a large portion of assets which are denominated in other currencies; hence changes in the relevant exchange rate will affect the value of the investment. Investors in this Fund should understand that capital growth is not a priority and values may fluctuate and the level of income may vary from time to time and is not guaranteed. Compared to more established economies, the value of investments in developing Emerging Markets may be subject to greater volatility due to differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability. Some or all of the Manager’s annual charge for the Fund is taken from capital rather than from income. Whilst this increases the yield, it reduces the potential for capital growth. The model portfolios, allocations and data are subject to change. Data shown is for informational purposes only, does not represent an actual account, and is not the result of any actual trading. Actual investment outcomes may vary. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice, research, or a recommendation by BlackRock regarding (i) the iShares Funds, (ii) the use or suitability of the model portfolios or (iii) any security in particular. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer. © 2014 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, iSHARES, SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY, INVESTING FOR A NEW WORLD, and BUILT FOR THESE TIMES are registered and unregistered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. Disclaimer 28

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