2. Water consumption of agriculture and natural ecosystems along the Ili River in China and Kazakhstan Niels Thevs 1,3, Sabir Nurtazin 2, Volker Beckmann 3, Ruslan Salmyrzali 2, Altyn Akimalieva 3 1 World Agroforestry Center, Central Asia Office, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan 2 Biological Faculty, Kazakh National University Al-Farabi, Almaty, Kazakhstan 3 Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology University of Greifswald, Germany

3. Introduction Ili Balkash Basin Methods Results Presentation is part of the project: Ecosystem conservation and sustainable land use in the Ili-Delta, Balkhash Lake, Kazakhstan, under decreasing water resources BMBF, 2014-2016

4. The Ili Balkash Basin

6. Major agricultural areas Major wetland of Central Asia: Ili Delta, ca. 8000 km² Largest Lake of Central Asia: Lake Balkhash, 17000 km² Major wetland of Central Asia: Ili Delta, ca. 8000 km² Largest Lake of Central Asia: Lake Balkhash, 17000 km² Construction of Kapchagay Reservoir in 1974

7. The Ili Delta and its vegetation

9. ESS in the Delta, mainly from wetlands Provisioning: Fodder (-> food from animal products), fish (spawning place), game Raw material (-> construction material, chip boards, paper) Provisioning: Fodder (-> food from animal products), fish (spawning place), game Raw material (-> construction material, chip boards, paper) Regulating: C-Sequestration Regulation of water quality for Lake Balkhash Regulating: C-Sequestration Regulation of water quality for Lake Balkhash Cultural: Opportunities for recreation (hunting, fishing, bird watching) Information and inspiration Cultural: Opportunities for recreation (hunting, fishing, bird watching) Information and inspiration

10. Provisioning ESS Provisioning: Fodder (-> food from animal products), fish (spawning place), game Raw material (-> construction material, chip boards, paper) Provisioning: Fodder (-> food from animal products), fish (spawning place), game Raw material (-> construction material, chip boards, paper) Regulating: C-Sequestration Regulation of water quality for Lake Balkhash Regulating: C-Sequestration Regulation of water quality for Lake Balkhash Cultural: Opportunities for recreation (hunting, fishing, bird watching) Information and inspiration Cultural: Opportunities for recreation (hunting, fishing, bird watching) Information and inspiration Life stock is grazed throughout the delta on non-submerged areas. 60% of the fish catch of Lake Balkhash grow up in the open waters in the Ili Delta. Chipboard / fodder factory is going to be operating in Karoi. Paper factory is planned in Zhideli. Life stock is grazed throughout the delta on non-submerged areas. 60% of the fish catch of Lake Balkhash grow up in the open waters in the Ili Delta. Chipboard / fodder factory is going to be operating in Karoi. Paper factory is planned in Zhideli.

11. Land cover classes for monetizing ESS Lake Balkhash Water bodies in the delta Submerged dense reed Non-submerged dense reed Open reed and shrub N Submerged dense reed -> raw material: 854 km², biomass more than 800,000 t Grazed reed area: 1264 km² Submerged dense reed -> raw material: 854 km², biomass more than 800,000 t Grazed reed area: 1264 km²

12. Water resources Petr, 1992; Abdrasilov and Tulebaeva 1994; Esekin et al., 2011; Dostaj et al., 2006; 2012 1960s1970sPast 10 years Runoff into Lake Balkhash [km³/a] 1512.2 – 12.912 – 20 Lake area [km²]18,00016,000 Lake water level [m a.sl.] 343341342.2 – 342.7 Kapchagay Reservoir was filled. 80% of the runoff into Lake Balkhash comes from the Ili River. 70% of the runoff of the Ili River comes from China. Headwaters of the Ili River: Tianshan 80% of the runoff into Lake Balkhash comes from the Ili River. 70% of the runoff of the Ili River comes from China. Headwaters of the Ili River: Tianshan Kapchagay Reservoir not further filled. Enhanced Glacier -> increased runoff.

13. Country1970s1990s20012013 Kazakhstan1.242.1701.093.362613.317492.958* China572.294630.928808.551940.276 Total1.814.4641.724.2901.421.8681.433.234 Agricultural land [ha] in the Ili river basin from 1970s to 2013 Changes in agriculture *Part of the fields in Kazakhstan are planted only if there is enough water available. This figure only reflects 2013. Crops China: wheat, corn, rice, rape Kazakhstan: wheat, corn, alfalfa, rice Agricultural land 2013 0 200 km Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan China

14. Upstream – downstream conflict Agriculture has been expanded in the Ili river basin. Further expansion of agriculture is to expect. Water consumption most likely will be increasing. Agriculture has been expanded in the Ili river basin. Further expansion of agriculture is to expect. Water consumption most likely will be increasing. Upstream – downstream conflict: Agriculture vs. delta with wetland complex downstream China upstream vs. Kazakhstan downstream. Upstream – downstream conflict: Agriculture vs. delta with wetland complex downstream China upstream vs. Kazakhstan downstream. Water competition will be aggravated due to climate change. Investigate water consumption upstream and downstream, agriculture and natural ecosystems. One part of the whole project, towards a picture of benefits (including ESS) from water consumption.

15. Determine evapotranspiration (ET) Point measurements: Lysimeter, Eddy towers -> costly Climate data (e.g. Penman-Monteith) -> indirect method, many assumptions Mapping of larger areas: Interpolate climate data Remote sensing

16. Method: S-SEBI approach – ETpot MODIS 16d-Albedo MODIS 8d-Land Surface Temperature Latitude Trans- missivity Potential evapotranspiration (ETpot)

17. Method II: ETf ETa Pixels with vegetation: actual evapotranspiration (ETa) between ETpot and zero. ETa and Land surface temperature (LST) follow a linear relationship. ETf: the amount of ET which is realised: LST hot pixel – LST ETf = ––––––––––––––––––– ETa = ETpot * ETf LST hot pixel – LST cold pixel Hot pixel: Pixel with ETf = 0, ETa = 0. -> LST is high: bare land, desert. Cold pixel: Pixel with ETf = 1, ETa = ETpot. -> LST is low: wetland vegetation.

18. Total ETa of growing season 2014 0 200 km 1400 700 0 ETa [mm] Lake Balkhash Ili Delta Kazakhstan China Kyrgyzstan In green: agriculture not covered by ET-mapping -> estimated through avergae ETf.

19. Average ETa [mm] Year2005200920102014 China Agriculture554544.6587.1566.6 Kazakhstan Agriculture486.8483.7475.7437.7 Submerged reed area Ili- Delta 985.7865.2921.9858.7 Grazed reed areas Ili Delta 595.5457.3458.2422.6 Average ETa [mm] over the growing seasons 2005-2014 of agriculture and reed dominated vegetation in theIli River Delta

20. ETa [km³] per growing season, Ili river basin Year2005200920102014 China Agriculture mapped3.012.963.193.07 Agriculture estimated2.342.272.462.39 China total5.355.235.655.46 Kazakhstan Agriculture mapped1.771.751.681.55 Agriculture estimated0.560.550.530.49 Submerged reed area Ili-Delta0.880.770.820.77 Grazed reed areas Ili Delta1.561.2 1.11 Kazakhstan total4.784.274.243.92 Total10.129.519.899.38

21. Discussion Comparison of results with S-SEBI study of Heihe river basin, China (Hochmuth et al., 2014): Average ETa of agriculture Ili river basin in China: 566 mm in 2013. ETa of corn in Heihe river baisn: 667 mm. Increasing ETa in China: shift to more rice, improved water supply to crops. Hotspot of ET in Kazakhstan: Kapchagay Reservoir. Decreasing ETa in Kazakhstan due to agriculture and mainly due to degradation of reed vegetation in Ili Delta (coincides with field observations: reed vegetation partly degraded).

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