1. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 High Temporal Resolution Inverse Modeling Analysis of CO Emissions from North American Boreal Fires During the Summer of 2004 Importance of Their Injection Height S. Turquety 1,2, D. J. Jacob 1, J. A. Logan 1, C. L. Heald 4, D. B. Jones 3, R. C. Hudman 1, F. Y. Leung 1, R. M. Yantosca 1, S. Wu 1, L.K. Emmons 5, D. P. Edwards 5, G. W. Sachse 6 Pyro-convective cloud from aircraft ~ 10km (N57, W125) June 27, 2004 www.cpi.com/remsensing/midatm/smoke.html 1 Harvard University, Cambridge, USA 2 Service d’Aéronomie, IPSL, UPMC, Paris, France 3 University of Toronto, Canada 4 University of California Berkeley, USA 5 NCAR, Boulder, USA 6 NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, USA Uncertainty on the fire emissions (area burned, fuel consumed, etc.) Importance of injection heights more and more recognized but highly uncertain

2. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 19 Tg 11 Tg We constructed a daily area burned: Temporal variability: daily reports from the U.S. National Interagency Fire Center Location of the fires: MODIS hotspot detection Fuel consumption and emission factors including the contribution from peat burning Daily inventory of boreal fire emissions for North America in 2004 (Turquety et al., submitted, JGR) Summer of 2004: Largest fire year on record in terms of area burned in Alaska and western Canada; Pfister et al., GRL, 2005: Inverse modeling a posteriori estimate 30 ± 5 Tg CO emitted based on MOPITT CO ~ twice their a priori estimate

3. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Evaluation using the MOPITT CO observations (Turquety et al., submitted, JGR) Highlights the importance of peat burning Strong uncertainty remain: → Areas burned/Timing of fires? → Fuel consumption? → Impact of injection heights? GEOS-Chem: no peat burning GEOS-Chem: with peat burning MOPITT Model with peat Model without peat

4. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Importance of high altitude injection in 2004 Average vertical distribution of boreal fires emissions in the CTM (F-Y Leung): 40% boundary layer 30% FT ~ [600–400hPa] 30% UT ~ [400–200hPa] Variability CO emissions and max TOMS AI Alaska-Yukon [165-125W] Several studies have shown that pyro-convective events occurred – and could explain some long-range transport events : e.g. → Damoah et al., 2006 : event end of June → DeGouw et al., 2006 : event in mid-July Peaks in TOMS AI suggest pyro-convection events: end of June, beginning of July, mid-July and mid-August

5. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 a priori sources xaxa a posteriori estimates Inversion Forward model: Observations: Inverse modeling of boreal fire emissions GEOS-Chem CO * MOPITT AK + MOPITT CO – summer 2004 (MOPITT – MODEL) Gain matrix Maximum a posteriori solution (Rodgers, 2000) With S ∑ : observation and model error S a : a priori error K : Jacobians (∂y/ ∂x)

6. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Kalman Filter Kalman Smoother Analysis update Kalman smoother : observations from ‘future’ also used to update emissions Time dependant inversion using a Kalman smoother Initial conditions = MOPITT CO assimilation (D. Jones, U. Toronto)

7. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Observations influenced by emissions for current day but also past emissions! Separate contribution from different time steps in the model Jacobian K now time dependant: Time dependant inversion using a Kalman smoother with t update t0t0 Fixed Each emission time step update P times, last estimate = best estimate Emissions during 3 days (1 timestep); P = 5 timesteps updated (5 x 3 = 15 days) GEOS-Chem CO * MOPITT AK

8. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Model pulse simulations including vertical distribution of the emissions State vector including vertical distribution: → 3 biomass burning regions x 3 vertical regions: BL, MT, UT → North American FF/BF, Asia, Rest of the world + chemical production GEOS-Chem model simulation to be compared to the MOPITT observations: Decaying background : initial conditions = assimilated MOPITT CO (University of Toronto) Emissions during 3 days (1 timestep); P = 5 timesteps updated (5 x 3 = 15 days)

9. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 t-1 t-2 Observations y Forward model K x + bckgd Contribution at t from emissions at t-2 Contribution at t from emissions at t Contribution at t from emissions at t-1 t (3 days timestep) BB AK-YK – Boundary layer BB AK-YK – Middle trop.BB AK-YK – Upper trop.

10. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Initial a priori uncertainty on the emissions S a 50% on biomass burning emissions in our region of interest 30% on emissions for the rest of the world 20% uncertainty on chemical production 1 st adjustment of the emissions at a given timestep => errors uncorrelated 2 nd adjustment of a given time step: S a (t,t) = S x (t,t-1) => introduce correlations A priori uncertainty on the observations and model S e Determined using the method described by Heald et al., JGR, 2004 uncertainty = observation – model Assume correlation length scale = 147 km Total CO Maximum error over the fire region, reflecting the large uncertainties ~ 30 – 50% ~ 5 – 20 % elsewhere

11. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Inversion of the emissions in 3 vertical regions: boundary layer (BL), middle troposphere (MT) and upper troposphere (UT) Pyroconvective event end of June Still update… Sensitivity of the inversion to injection height, information seems to be available for the inversion of this parameter in parallel A priori “vertdis”: 40% BL, 30% MT, 30%UT (preliminary results)

12. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Inversion of the emissions in 3 vertical regions: boundary layer (BL), middle troposphere (MT) and upper troposphere (UT) Sensitivity of the inversion to injection height, information seems to be available for the inversion of this parameter in parallel A priori “vertdis”: 40% BL, 30% MT, 30%UT (preliminary results) Variability CO emissions and max TOMS AI Alaska-Yukon [165-125W]

13. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Large event in the beginning of August Inversion of the emissions in 3 vertical regions: boundary layer (BL), middle troposphere (MT) and upper troposphere (UT) (preliminary results) Variability CO emissions and max TOMS AI Central Canada From Alaska

14. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Conclusions and future directions Bottom-up emissions inventory estimate of 30 Tg CO, incl. 11 Tg CO from peat burning [Turquety et al., subm., 2006] Including peat burning allows better agreement with first top-down estimates of 30 ± 5 Tg by Pfister et al. [2005] Injection height is important for specific events – less important on CO averaged over the summer Injection heights have an impact on high temporal resolution top-down emissions inversions from MOPITT Limited information on the vertical distribution in MOPITT Information in the MOPITT transport pathways on injection height can be used to constrain this parameter Data could be used to specify injection height together with inventories: → TOMS AI → POAM stratospheric aerosols (Fromm et al.) → MISR : see poster Fok-Yan Leung A51C-0099 → Calipso lidar in space? → Solar occultation measurements from ACE? Efforts currently undertaken to include a physical parameterization of injection heights in models One focus of the POLARCAT international campaign to be held in 2008

15. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 Detection of vertical distribution over source regions and downwind with CALIPSO MODIS fire detection 20-26 July, 2006 Courtesy J. Pelon, Service d’Aéronomie

16. Solène Turquety – AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006 CO C2H6 HCN (+) Large variety of species measured O3, H2O, H2O2, CO, CH4, C2H6, C2H2, HCN, CH3Cl, SF6, OCS, HNO3, PAN,… (+) Very good vertical resolution (+) Orbit scheduled sample boreal regions in July (-) Lack coverage (-) No data at altitudes < ~6km Solar occultation measurements from the ACE/SCISAT-1 instrument: