1. 第十二週 /Week 12 政策議題（ 3 ）聯合截擊 Policy Issue III: Joint Interdiction 拒敵於彼岸 拒敵於彼岸 Opposite Shore 擊敵於半渡 擊敵於半渡 In the Strait 毀敵於灘頭水際 毀敵於灘頭水際 Taiwanese Shore 效益分析 效益分析 Costs-effects Analysis

2. Shlapak, David A., David T. Orletsky, Toy I. Reid, Murray Scot Tanner, Barry Wilson. 2009. “ Chapter 5 The Ultimate Roll of the Dice: A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, ” A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 91-122. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG888.pdf Shlapak, David A., David T. Orletsky, Toy I. Reid, Murray Scot Tanner, Barry Wilson. 2009. “ Chapter 5 The Ultimate Roll of the Dice: A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, ” A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 91-122. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG888.pdf http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG888.pdf Watts, Barry D. 2011. “The Maturing Revolution in Military Affairs,” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 35-39. http://www.csbaonline.org/wp- content/uploads/2011/06/2011.06.02-Maturing-Revolution-In- Military-Affairs1.pdf Watts, Barry D. 2011. “The Maturing Revolution in Military Affairs,” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 35-39. http://www.csbaonline.org/wp- content/uploads/2011/06/2011.06.02-Maturing-Revolution-In- Military-Affairs1.pdf http://www.csbaonline.org/wp- content/uploads/2011/06/2011.06.02-Maturing-Revolution-In- Military-Affairs1.pdf http://www.csbaonline.org/wp- content/uploads/2011/06/2011.06.02-Maturing-Revolution-In- Military-Affairs1.pdf Readings…

3. http://www.acig.org/artman/uploads/bphoto08_001.jpg http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/ORD_NSM_Kongsberg_Test_Launch_Coastal_lg.jpg http://www.saabgroup.com/NR/rdonlyres/586885C8-ED0C-4FE5-948B-F34756518BD4/3712/untitled1.jpg 既然要用飛彈，用什麼樣的「飛彈」 ? http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e7/SCUD_2.JPG/800px-SCUD_2.JPG http://infosyiah.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/hizbullah.jpg BallisticMissilesCruiseMissiles 30~200M<10m 1.0M>>6.0M

4. WHY?? 射程優先：使敵方備多力分

5. http://iconicphotos.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/highway-of-death.jpeg http://kosova.org/pics/nato/t55-2.jpg WHY?? 射程優先：使我方無需集中、暴露

6. http://www.stratfor.com/files/mmf/7/e/7eff3441ac5c4f51ed6a0ce14920c2b5092af489.jpg 射程：不是愈遠愈好 … 600km… Number!!! 飛彈不能太貴 … 破壞力 破壞力Destructiveness 彈雨突防 彈雨突防Breakthrough >10,000!!!

7. 設計基準 Standard 30K/30km… http://media.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/ORD_GBU-39_SDB_Concept_Color_lg.jpg http://en.valka.cz/files/agm-130_184.jpeg http://nature-talk.com/locations/space/earth/images/solid-rocket-boosters.jpg 250K/300km… 100  20,000!!!

8. http://ericpalmer.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/jassm.jpg 400K/370km… http://nature-talk.com/locations/space/earth/images/solid-rocket-boosters.jpghttp://www.rocketryonline.com/jimball/jimball/harpoon/Sea_Launch.jpg 設計基準 Standard http://aviacia.ru/fighter/f/f117_17.jpg 500K/600km… 100  10,000!!!

9. 導引方式Guidance

10. 目標對象 Target Type http://warisboring.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ins-hanit-missile-damage.jpg http:// photos.igougo.com/images/p144020-Baghdad-Bunker_Jaber.jpg http://defense-update.com/images_large3/sdb_ii_34.jpg http://media.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/ORD_GBU-53_SDB-II_Rendering_lg.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/San_Diego_Naval_Base.jpg

11. http://album.udn.com/community/img/PSN_PHOTO/rexonhan/f_6738996_1.JPG http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/mlrs-steelrain.jpg http://www.fpif.org/files/3681/cluster-bombs%20full%20load.jpg?width=250 http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/images/cbu97_33.jpg 技術現況 … 50K/45km…

12. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oHhLRLpZ8b4/TcYuc5U8ygI/AAAAAAAAA5M/RJEMZyLmipM/s1600/Hsiung+Feng+II+%2528HF-2%2529+%2528Brave+Wind+II%2529+is+an+anti-ship+missile+system+developed+by+the+Chungshan+Institute+of+Science+and+Technology+in+Taiwan.+e+%25282%2529.jpg http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/Tien-Kung.jpg http://www.tpub.com/content/aviation/14313/img/14313_84_1.jpg http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/agm-84h.jpg http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/bgm-109abc.jpg

13. 技術現況 … http://cimg2.163.com/cnews/2006/4/29/200604291118232b6e3.jpg http://img135.imageshack.us/i/201006123f6ba6f773a7ac7.jpg/ http://api.ning.com/files/*Lb-gMMVMXKelAEjmdU7dFBGya-BFGEXgFsV8LpOWdhCy121V9EuqsWQ6bgJfZCCsGDLP5RGwtplkbrkoqOlpAEUf0FfJYn7/2E.jpg http://www.wantchinatimes.com/newsphoto/2011-05-09/450/84504_002060004.505.HF3-2_2011%E8%B3%87%E6%96%99%E7%85%A7%E7%89%87_copy1.JPG

14. http://img.epochtimes.com/i6/805201007261462.jpg 這不就是「境外決戰」？ Decisive Battle Outside Territory? 採取快速而積極的軍事行動， 將敵軍擊毀於境外，摧毀於戰 場縱深之後方基地，癱瘓其本 土軍事目標。 (Strike the enemy before they can reach us! ) ～陳水扁， 1999 ～陳水扁， 1999 http://b.blog.xuite.net/b/c/9/5/21340323/blog_1516401/txt/23212562/5.jpg 1981 This is my dream!! 「決戰」：決定性戰鬥 「決戰」：決定性戰鬥 「境外」：國境之外 「境外」：國境之外

15. 決戰？ Decisive Battle? http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IYGc_MWwkfw/ST89B8yDTqI/AAAAAAAAAh0/aWkqaCMESLI/s400/820_musket_bayonet.jpg http://www.great-victory1945.ru/black_death_in_bayonet_attack.jpg 徹底擊毀敵人，意即消滅相當高比例的敵人 何種距離下， 何種距離下， 可以產生決定性？ 可以產生決定性？ 投入的資源增加， 投入的資源增加， 此一距離增加多少？ 此一距離增加多少？ 相同資源投入下， 相同資源投入下， 在何種距離下使用， 在何種距離下使用， 最有效？ 最有效？

16. http://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/willow/the-china-sea0.gifhttp://www.stimson.org/images/china/TaiwanStrait3.JPG 水際 彼岸 海峽 境外？ Outside Territory?

17. http://img.epochtimes.com/i6/805201007261462.jpg 效益分析 Costs-effects Analysis 目標獲得？ 目標獲得？ Target Acquisition 克服抵抗？ 克服抵抗？ Counter Measure 所需技術？ 所需技術？ Seeker Technology 政治風險？ 政治風險？ Risk of Escalation

18. http://www.thewednesdayreport.com/twr/gulfwar/images/iraq2003/march25-28/capt.1048863857.iraq_us_war_ana109.jpg 彼岸Mainland

19. http://iconicphotos.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/highway-of-death.jpeg http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/2639/torgrdi8.jpg http://xairforces.com/images/country/iran/a-50aew_iriaf_0003.jpg http://photos.igougo.com/images/p144022-Baghdad-Bunker_Jaber.jpg http://www.priu.gov.lk/news_update/Images/2009/ltte_vehicle_mounted_guns.jpg 暴露，集中 Exposed, Concentrated

20. 海峽Strait http://images.wangchao.net.cn/images/upload/images/military/1168918071007.jpg

21. http://www.navy.mil/navydata/policy/vision/vis98/pg25-1.gif目標類型命中率擊沈癱瘓沒有防禦能力的目標57.5/63=91.3%1242 對具防禦能力但未發揮功能的目標26/38=68.4%613 對具防禦能力且採取防禦作為的目標32/121=26.4%1316 1967 年至 1992 年發生的反艦飛彈攻擊 Anti-Ship Missiles Performance, 1967~1992 艦隊戰術與海岸戰鬥，頁 231 http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/upload/img_400/FKD_000064.jpg

22. http://big5.eastday.com:82/gate/big5/mil.eastday.com/m/20080214/images/01197590.jpg http://epaper.taihainet.com/newspic/UploadFiles_6334/200712/20071226092525423.jpg 水際 Near Beach

23. http://www.afwing.com/combat/Falklands_War/Falklands_War-20.htm 簡直是活靶 Sitting Duck…… http://xairforces.com/images/country/iran/a-50aew_iriaf_0003.jpg http://www.defencetalk.com/pictures/data/3166/medium/HQ-7_61506A.jpg

24. http://www.stimson.org/images/china/TaiwanStrait3.JPG 政治風險 政治風險 Risk of Escalation 目標獲得 目標獲得 Target Acquisition 克服抵抗 克服抵抗 Counter Measure 尋標技術 尋標技術 Seeker Technology 彼岸 海峽 水際 稍難容易 容易容易 較難 稍難 容易稍難較難

25. http://steeljawscribe.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/image/FF-skipbomb/b-25.jpg http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/5923/14040125111ed5ca42cbb2.jpg http://www.military-today.com/tanks/zbd_2000_light_tank.jpg http://www.enemyforces.net/tanks/type99.jpg http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/zlc2000_06ff.jpg 境外決戰的關鍵在本土決戰的準備 Outside Decision depends on Inside Preparations…