1. UNCLASSIFIED Lt Col Tom Mallinson GBR Multinational Capability Development Campaign Executive Steering Group #2 Understand to Prevent #2 (U2P2) Project Update Draft for 20 Nov 2015

2. U2P2 - Overview Understand to Prevent – the military contribution to the prevention of violent conflict Understand to Prevent 2’ (U2P2) is the second phase of the U2P project that is exploring how military forces can contribute to the ‘upstream’ (early) prevention of violent conflict U2P2 builds on U2P by focusing on the practical operationalization of the ideas introduced in U2P

3. U2P2 – Quad Chart Capability RelevanceDeliverables / Desired End State Relevance to Joint Force Required Capabilities: U2P2 provides the opportunity for military and non-military planners to examine how to reach a common understanding, of both the mission and what military capabilities could be applied while avoiding duplication, at what stage of the process, and how the military reputation across government for conflict management can be enhanced. U2P has laid the theoretical foundation for this evolution, while U2P2 will offer the practical understanding and guidelines of how it might be done. Deliverables: A Planning guide/handbook that will help military personnel (i.e. strategic and operational planners) develop the responses to the violent conflict they are seeking to prevent. End State: Planning responses transformed in to a military contribution (as appropriate/required) and integrated in to the comprehensive solution from the outset. Through a common and complementary understanding of the problem, and the potential military contribution to the solution… Violent conflict avoided, conflict parties engaged in process of conflict transformation. Desired / Intended CapabilityTransition/Shaping Forces - Potential By consulting widely with non-military actors, and then considering an extensive list of principles and themes and their appropriate application by the military, military forces at all levels will add expertise in nonviolent conflict management to their existing expertise in war fighting. Principles and themes that cut across all understanding and planning will include conflict transformation, ‘do no harm’ and conflict sensitivity, gender, human security, legitimacy, political will/primacy and the protection of civilians. Case studies will also be referenced to help the mission planning team to conceptualise the potential and/or apparent conflict. How can results change Joint/Coalition Forces? The idea of pre-emption or preventing future violent conflict as an upstream activity in which militaries could be involved is being taken more seriously. Many non-military partners are already active in this field. But any military contribution is often too late and misdirected through a lack of understanding of each others abilities. U2P suggests a sequence for upstream engagement in prevention to help actors develop a common understanding, leading to a common approach: Understand-Engage-Act-Endure-Assess. Deepen understanding of (the) conflict and violence Develop/extend skills of nonviolent conflict management

4. U2P2 – Problem Statement U2P1 identified that the greatest challenges to effective prevention of violent conflict are inadequate understanding of (the) conflict, the politics of external intervention (early warning, late/inadequate/no response), lack of an inclusive and comprehensive approach, and inadequate planning and coordination of responders. Desired Endstate: U2P2 seeks to articulate a common understanding to inform a comprehensive approach to prevent violent conflict. 4

5. UNCLASSIFIED U2P2 - Solution By consulting widely with non-military actors, and then considering an extensive list of principles and themes and their appropriate application by the military, a handbook will be developed. This handbook, closely aligned and informed by the NATO COPD, will allow military forces at all levels to enhance their expertise in nonviolent conflict management (and in addition to their existing expertise in war fighting). Principles and themes that cut across all understanding and planning will include conflict transformation, ‘do no harm’ and conflict sensitivity, gender, human security, legitimacy, political will/primacy and the protection of civilians. Case studies will also be referenced to help the mission planning team to conceptualise the potential and/or apparent conflict.

6. UNCLASSIFIED U2P2 - Schedule On Track  2015 – 2016 Cycle  Seminar/writing/collation/framework/format/writing  Principles/key themes/case studies to be included  Workshop #3 in Jan 16  Draft handbook to be tested/assessed during CJSE in Apr 16  Final(?) workshop in Jun 16 to refine product  No high project impact risks…

7. UNCLASSIFIED U2P2 – Schedule / Timeline Feb 16 May 16 Apr 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Mar 16 Jan 16 Dec 15 Workshop 5 Jun 16 Kingston, CAN Publish U2P2 Concept Note Oct 15 Nov 15 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Aug 15 Workshop 1 22-26 Jun 15 Shrivenham,UK Workshop 2 5-8 Oct 15 Riga, LAT? Workshop 3 ?? Oct 15 City?, Country? ESG2 & Nat Dir 20 Nov 15 Brussels, BEL LOE: CJSE 16 Apr 16 Enkoping, SWE Workshop 4 26-29 Jan 16 Paris, FRA ESG3 & Nat Dir Location tbc Nat Dir 15-17 Mar 16 Bjorkliden, SWE MCDC CPWS#2 13-17 Apr 15 Liestal, CHE Workshop 6 ?? Sep 16 City?, Country? Workshop 2 6-8 Oct 15 StratComCOE, LAT

8. UNCLASSIFIED U2P2 – Changes since ESG#1 Project Plan No longer seeking to be ‘non-violent conflict specialists’ No longer seeking to define the Comprehensive Contact Team (CCT) Requirements – No Change Problem Statement and End State – No Change Solution Product – handbook will be aligned to NATO COPD Methodology Approach – No Change Schedule / Timeline – No change (1 less workshop) Team Composition – USA has joined the team Close liaison with Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC), and International Security Sector Advisory Team (ISSAT) of Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF)