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The Irish Economy The revival of the Celtic Tiger.

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Presentation on theme: "The Irish Economy The revival of the Celtic Tiger."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Irish Economy The revival of the Celtic Tiger

2 Sustained growth, above eurozone average 2 7.8% GDP growth in 2015 Fastest EU growth Strong growth in years to come, IMF

3 Strong growth built on external trade 3

4 Dynamic export sector presents opportunities for French companies + 19,9 % good exports (€111bn), FY 2015: + 35.7% pharmaceutical products + 18.2% organic chemicals +10.1% good imports (€67bn), FY2015: + 33.3% car imports + 26.6% pharmaceutical products + 24.8% organic chemicals + 22.9% IT equipment 4

5 Bilateral trade with France - Goods France trade surplus vis-à-vis Ireland (+€1.8bn), CSO France trade deficit vis-à-vis Ireland (-€3.4bn), French customs Explantation: New methodology in Irish national accounts, incorporating aircraft imports of leasing companies 5

6 Bilateral trade with France - Services Large trade surplus vis-à-vis France (+ €3.2bn, 2014) Irish exports in France (€5.4bn) dominated by IT services (58%) Irish imports from France (€2.bn) include business services (43%), tourism (16%) and insurance (13%) 6 Balance :€3.2bn

7 Multinationals play central role in economy, especially regarding exports Multinationals: Exported €142bn of goods and services (2014), i.e. 2/3 of exports Employ 187,056 people (2015), i.e. ≈ 10% of total workforce Account for 2-3 pp of GDP growth in 2015 7

8 Multinationals impact Irish growth in many ways 8 7.8% growth in GDP (2015) Domestic sector 4-5% Multinationals 2-3% Payment of dividends abroad Profit relocalisation in Ireland Investments in R&D BEPS : encourage multinationals to further reside profits in Ireland (12,5% corporation tax) Fiscal domiciliation: some companies relocate their headquartersin Ireland to benefit from the 12.5 corporate tax rate, without having significant operational activities there (« Redomiciled Plcs ») Knowledge Development Box : 6.25% tax on profits from patent development in Ireland (1st January 2016)

9 Consumption and investment benefiting from ‘catch-up’ effect Strong rebound in private consumption and investment: 120,000 new cars licensed (2015), i.e. + 66,700 since 2009 Private investment recovering since 2010: + €17,6bn (22% of GDP vs. 17.8% in 2010) 9 + 66 700

10 Although led by exports until 2013, growth rebalancing itself toward domestic demand 2008-2009: External trade only positive contribution to GDP Continued to lead growth 2011-2013 Since 2014, growth rebalancing towards domestic demand: More investment: + 28.2% of GFCF in 2015 (contributed 6 pp to GDP growth) More private consumption: positive contribution to growth since 2014 10

11 Reduction in private debt Gradual decline in private debt: €143bn (Nov ‘15) vs. €318bn (Jan ‘09) 74% of GDP (Nov ‘15) vs. 188% (Jan ‘09) Rapid deleveraging of companies: - €116bn ( Jan ’09 - Nov ‘15) 11

12 Labour market benefitting from economic recovery + 140,000 jobs since 2011: 42% of jobs in Dublin 56% of jobs in tertiary sector Increase in salaries: Average weekly salary in private sector €635.40 (2015), i.e. + 3.5% than 2010 12

13 Rapid growth in household income and expenditure +10.3% gross household disposable income (3Q 2013 vs. 3Q 2014) +10.2% private expenditure (2015 vs. 2012) Weak propensity to consume (68.5%, 2015) linked to debt repayments: Return to precrisis levels of consumption (80%) should reinforce market attractiveness 13

14 Household and company confidence rising since 2013 Monthly retail index increase: 109.7 (Nov ‘15) vs. 87 (Jan ‘10) Industrial PMI > 50 since May 2013, i.e. 32 month increase 14

15 After years of under investment, Ireland needs infrastructure Public investment only 2% of GDP (2015): Low for OECD economy Rapid collapse after 2008 Infrastructure deficiencies: Ireland fell from 19th (‘07 ) to 31st (‘12), World Bank Logistics Performance Index Dublin (1.3 million people): 2 railway lines, no metro 15 Infrastructure needs are great opportunity for French companies

16 Government to invest €27bn in infrastructure (2016-2021) 16 Transport €9.6bn Education €3.8bn Environment €4bn Health €3.1bn Total €27bn Capital Investment Plan 2016-2021 Roads: €6bn Public transport: €3.6bn Improve infrastructure New buildings Homes: €2.9bn Floods : €0.43bn Renew infrastructure Build new centers

17 State-owned companies to supplement this with €14.5bn worth of investment 17 Energy €5.8bn Drinking water €4.2bn Housing €2.5bn Energy distribution and transmission network Water treatment and distribution infrastructure Housing and company development Infrastructure €2bn Ports, airports, public transport, forestry and biomass Total €14.5bn State-owned enterprises 2016-2021 …

18 Ireland one of world’s most open economies, ICC ranking 18 Ireland 6th most open economy in world: Above average for all criteria Attractive for FDI (5.6/6) and exports:  Excellent trade infrastructure (5/6) and above average trade openess (4.6/6) Excellent Above average

19 Your French interlocutors in Ireland 19 Founded in 2015, Business France is the national agency supporting the international development of the French economy, responsible for fostering export growth by French business, as well as promoting and facilitating international investment in France. The Economic Department of the French Embassy in Dublin is part of the French Treasury’s international network, and is in charge of analysing and reporting on the Irish economy. It is in charge of coordinating the operations of the other actors in Ireland in line with the government policies. The France Ireland Chamber of Commerce promotes trade and investment between France and Ireland, and brings together the Irish and French business communities in Ireland. The CCEF is comprised of 4000 business leaders, present in 140 countries that act as advisers on French foreign trade. Their core missions are advising public authorities, promoting the attractiveness of France, supporting companies in international development and training young people.

20 Contact information 20 Ms Gisèle Hivert-Messeca Ireland Country Manager Address French Embassy in Ireland 66 Merrion Square, Dublin 2 Mail gisele.hivert- messeca@businessfrance.fr Tel. +353 (0)1 277 5081 Mr. Pierre Mongrué Head of the Economic Department Address French Embassy in Ireland 66 Merrion Square, Dublin 2 Mail pierre.mongrue@dgtresor.gouv.fr pierre.mongrue@dgtresor.gouv.fr Tel. +353 (0)1 277 5043 Ms. Cliona McGowan General director of FICC Address FICC 44 Upper Mount St, Dublin 2 Mail c.mcgowan@franceireland.ie Tel. +353 (0)1 644 9760 Mr. Olivier Melennec President of CCEF Ireland Address CACI Dublin Beaux Lane House, Lower Mercer St, Dublin 2 Mail olivier.melennec@ca-caci.ie Tel. +353 (0)1 603 9683


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