1. Karen Davis IISMEE Fellowship Lockheed Martin 2010

2. How do scientists and engineers make sure a new technology will work? First, the science has to make sense – Use of physics and chemistry Use the principles of physics and chemistry to make sure idea is valid – Understand and account for the forces that act (friction, gravity, thrust, centripetal force) – Energy balances, efficiency of any energy transfer – Electrical circuits – Heat generated and how to dissipate – Light principles for electronic displays – Understand the chemistry- reaction rates – Thermo chemistry, catalysts New Webb Telescope Design, due to launch in 2014

3. Business Process for technology development in a consumer product like a new computer or cell phone Think of an idea Idea screening-who uses it, size of market, what kind of profit can you make? Concept development- what feature does it need, market research, technology available? Business analysis- selling price, what volume of sales, life of product? Produce prototypes- test on a few customers. Beta testing. Any safety issues? Implement production- specs, process, documentation Launch- initial price Lower price after intro period Maintenance of product: parts, service for some time

4. An important consideration: what is the lifecycle of a consumer product? Plasma T.V.- 10 years? Cell phone- 2 years? iPod- 2-3 years? Car-10 years?

5. Safety has to be considered for any product – Electrical, fire hazard – Toxic materials – Misuse issues – Mechanical failure (cars, baby seats) Risk of human life is there, but not on large scale Mood necklaces with high lead content

6. But what if your technology has: BIG safety issues – Going to outer space – A nuclear weapon – An oil drilling rig 5000 feet under water? Never been done before? – Going to Pluto – A new material for solar panels – A new kind of rocket for deep space exploration – New Horizons Spacecraft to Pluto launched 2006, arrives 2015

7. Or what if it has to last for a REALLY long time? SSBN Submarines: 45 years Aircraft Carrier- 50 years Bay Bridge- 150 years!

8. That kind of technology has to be “ready” in a different way How can the designers be sure it will last for the needed timeframe? How can they be sure it is as safe as possible How can they try to minimize all the ways it could go wrong? Bay Bridge Earthquake Failure, 1989

9. So, NASA and the U.S. Government have a formal process for new tech Technology Readiness Levels (TRL Levels) 1-9 Define how a process moves from idea to commercial product, or to space deployment Overview on the thermometer chart, let’s look at what each level really is

10. TRL 1: Basic principles observed and reported, or "Hey, that's neat." This level represents pure research. There really isn't even a particular piece of technology in question. TRL 2: Technology concept and/or application formulated, or "Ooo, idea!" This level represents taking our observations and coming up with some sort of practical use for them. Things are still speculative. TRL 3: Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof-of- concept, or "Let's do it." Development has begun. All we're trying to produce is proof-of-concept for the stuff we came up with in TRL 2. Getting an experimental process to work in a laboratory setting, for example. TRL 4: Experimental validation in laboratory environment, or "Gold spike!" We take our proof-of-concepts from TRL 3, and we integrate them into a lo-fi version of the system we came up with in TRL 2. A playable demo for project-pitching purposes, for example. Explanation/Examples of TRLs

11. TRL 5: Experiment in a relevant environment, or "Alpha" Similar to TRL 4, but this version is robust enough to deal with "real life" conditions, or, at least, a decent simulation of those conditions. Chances are good that these tests will make us change the product in some way. TRL 6: System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a relevant environment (ground or space), or "Beta" Any model or prototype is now well beyond the jerry-rigged TRL 4 version. At this point, testing is happening in a real environment. Beta testers are called in, or we throw it on a shuttle, and try it out in space. Again, we might make some changes based on the data acquired in this level. TRL 7: System prototype demonstration in a space or the ‘real environment”. "Things! In! Spaaaace!” Now we see if the product will really function where it is supposed to. There might be only one of a product like a spaceship or we might start shipping out the first units to a limited market.

12. Explanation/Examples of TRLs TRL 8: Actual system completed and "flight qualified" through test and demonstration (ground or space), or "Gone gold" By definition, all technologies being applied in actual systems go through TRL 8. At this point, we have gotten a product ready for primetime. Version 1.0, basically. TRL 9: Actual system "flight proven" through successful mission operations, or "Kid tested, mother approved." Once your product is in widespread use, it's TRL 9 by definition. This TRL does not include any expansions, or upgrades, which have their own TRLs, as appropriate. 1973- first cell phone by Motorola, weighed 2 pounds

13. How do you decide what has to be done at each level? Engineers try to think of all possibilities – How could it fail? – How will we test it? – What could go wrong? – Can we build it reliably? – Is the market ready for it? – How much will it cost to test it? – Are all the support systems there to really make it work? Laser disks- never took off for video

14. Let’s look at some examples of NASA Projects that used the TRL Process Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity Launched in June and July of 2003, landed 6 months later and were supposed to work for 3 months, but they are still working! Sprit has driven 7.7 km, Opportunity 21.2 km, were only supposed to drive for 1.0 km. Sprit is “asleep” to charge its batteries, since March of 2010

15. When does a project like this start? First idea in 1989 at JPL – Primary goal is to return material from Mars to Earth 5 kg of samples, 100 environmentally isolated samples – How to get there? – How to land rover safely? – How to link communications? – How to drive rover on Mars? – How to collect samples? – What scientific instruments does the rover need to carry? – How to get it back home? – TRL 1-4 to do all of this planning work

16. How long does that take? Started actually building the rovers in 2000, so 11 years from idea. The rovers will not return to Earth, like the original idea stated Built a prototype to experiment on Earth with – FIDO (Field Integration and Design Operations) – Smaller than the real rover, but most systems the same Tested in the Arizona, Nevada, and California deserts from 1999-2002

17. This is not a commercial product, so it does not need to go to TRL 9 http://marsrover.nasa.gov/gallery/landingsites/ Video shows how they picked landing sites. Image from rover, shows carbonates, which form in the presence of water

18. Is this process foolproof? No! The various requirements for each step are determined by people, budget, timeframe Mars Climate Orbiter, launched Dec. 11, 1998 The orbiter was to conduct a two year primary mission to profile the Martian atmosphere and map the surface. After a 286-day journey, the probe fired its engine on September 23 to push itself into orbit.

19. The engine fired but the spacecraft came within 60 km (36 miles) of the planet -- about 100 km closer than planned and about 25 km (15 miles) beneath the level at which the height it could function properly. The latest findings show that the spacecraft's propulsion system overheated and was disabled as Climate Orbiter dipped deeply into the atmosphere. That probably stopped the engine from completing its burn, so Climate Orbiter likely plowed through the atmosphere, continued out beyond Mars and now could be orbiting the sun, or could have burned up in Mars atmosphere What went wrong? 327 Million dollar program!

20. Guess what? Units! The “root cause” of the loss of the spacecraft was the failed translation of English units into metric units. Wrong info sent to navigation system See why units matter? So, was this technology “ready”?

21. Let’s look at another technology- one that went to TRL 9 (commercial use) In 1993, NASA challenged industry to develop a high-strength, low-density, lighter-weight replacement for aluminum alloy Al 2219–used on the original Space Shuttle External Tank. A partnership of three companies were successful in developing a new alloy known as Aluminum Lithium Al-Li 2195, which reduced the weight of the External Tank by 7,500 pounds (3,402 kilograms), about 5%. Al-2219 ( old): 5.8-6.8% Copper Al-2195 ( new): 4.05% Cu, 1.05% Li

22. That new material caused a problem for welding Problem: The new material made repair welds difficult to make and the joint strength of the External Tank had much lower mechanical properties. This drove up production cost on the tank. – Standard fusion welding melts the two surfaces together, so phase is changing at the interface – Needs very high temperatures – Acetylene/oxygen flame burns at about 3,500°C, so it melts metals, usually a filler metal is used as well – Dangerous! – Area near weld changes properties due to melting. – Needed a new way to weld this new material

23. New idea: friction stir welding -Process where material is rubbed with a pin under force to heat material -Material does not melt, it plasticizes, then joins edges as the pin moves along -Far safer to do -Stronger, as adjoining areas are not undergoing a phase change

24. Now it needed to be qualified through the TRL process

25. Needed to develop and document inspection of defects to move it into production- Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE)

26. Now this is being used in many industries. Used in the Eclipse 500 business jet, only $1,595,000.

27. Now, use your TRL knowledge on another emerging technology- hydrogen fuel cell cars Jan 6, 2010

28. Review of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Basics Anode Reaction: 2H 2 => 4H + + 4e - Cathode Reaction: O 2 + 4H + + 4e - => 2H 2 O Overall Cell Reaction: 2H 2 + O 2 => 2H 2 O ΔH f for this system= 570.4 kJ Multiple sources estimate the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is 60% compared to gas engines

29. Your task: be development engineers and decide what TRL level are Hydrogen Fuel cell cars at today? Use your physics and chemistry knowledge, and what you now know about the steps to qualify a new process. Things to consider include: Gaseous hydrogen has to be obtained from somewhere – Natural gas processing – Split water molecules, using electricity – Where does the energy to make H 2 come from? – Biofuels: bacteria produce methane, ethanol from corn How do you store that gas on a vehicle? Efficiency is now about 22%, the maximum is thought to be 40-50%. How can the efficiency be increased in order to lower cost? Estimates are 15 billion dollars to build a fueling infrastructure to service 70% of all consumers with gaseous hydrogen

30. Other countries are far ahead of the U.S. So look at them for ideas. Mazda Rx-8 produced for Norway’s HyNor project Berlin has 14 Hydrogen busses in operation

31. Consider also: Manufacturing and Programmatic Readiness Manufacturing – reliably being able to produce the technology – Factory ready, machines, materials, people who are trained Programmatic Readiness -supporting systems, government regulations, government subsidies, how will this technology be sustained? -Example: a smart phone without a network is no good. -Example: an iPod without a steady supply of new mp3 music files is no good.

32. Sources for your task Use the internet to find facts on: – The obstacles to hydrogen fuel cells in the US Technology limitations Infrastructure current state and plans Limitations for the consumer: range, refueling, appeal, what temperature range exists for the use of fuel cells Government policy-money available How will this technology be supported over time? Time to try being engineers!